Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 20–26 July 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0.0% 25.1% 23.4–26.9% 22.9–27.4% 22.5–27.9% 21.7–28.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0.0% 15.4% 14.0–16.9% 13.6–17.4% 13.3–17.8% 12.7–18.5%
Eesti Keskerakond (ECR) 0.0% 13.2% 11.9–14.7% 11.6–15.1% 11.2–15.4% 10.7–16.2%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0.0% 12.9% 11.6–14.4% 11.3–14.8% 11.0–15.1% 10.4–15.9%
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0.0% 12.1% 10.9–13.5% 10.5–13.9% 10.2–14.3% 9.7–15.0%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0.0% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.6%
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0.0% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti Keskerakond (ECR) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 99.9% 100% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Eesti Keskerakond (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 100% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 99.9% Median
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti 200 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 99.9% 100% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations