Opinion Poll by Emor for ERR, 11–19 August 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0.0% 25.7% 24.3–27.2% 23.9–27.6% 23.5–28.0% 22.9–28.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0.0% 17.8% 16.6–19.1% 16.2–19.5% 15.9–19.8% 15.4–20.4%
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0.0% 12.5% 11.5–13.7% 11.2–14.0% 10.9–14.3% 10.5–14.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0.0% 11.5% 10.5–12.6% 10.2–13.0% 10.0–13.2% 9.5–13.8%
Eesti Keskerakond (ECR) 0.0% 10.9% 9.9–12.0% 9.7–12.3% 9.4–12.6% 9.0–13.1%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0.0% 8.2% 7.3–9.2% 7.1–9.4% 6.9–9.7% 6.5–10.2%
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0.0% 6.9% 6.1–7.8% 5.9–8.1% 5.7–8.3% 5.4–8.8%
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0.0% 2.5% 2.1–3.1% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.6–3.8%
Koos (*) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.4% 1.1–1.9% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0 2 2 2 2–3 2–3
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti Keskerakond (ECR) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Koos (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 96% 100% Median
3 4% 4%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 85% 100% Median
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 99.5% 99.5% Median
2 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 99.8% 99.8% Median
2 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100% Last Result
1 81% 81% Median
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Eesti 200 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Koos (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koos (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 2 0% 2 2 2–3 2–3
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 96% 100% Median
3 4% 4%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 85% 100% Median
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 99.5% 99.5% Median
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations