Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 24–29 August 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) | 0.0% | 24.1% | 22.4–25.9% | 21.9–26.4% | 21.6–26.9% | 20.8–27.7% |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 0.0% | 19.1% | 17.6–20.8% | 17.1–21.2% | 16.8–21.7% | 16.1–22.5% |
| Eesti Reformierakond (RE) | 0.0% | 13.5% | 12.2–15.0% | 11.8–15.4% | 11.5–15.8% | 10.9–16.5% |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) | 0.0% | 11.8% | 10.6–13.2% | 10.2–13.6% | 9.9–13.9% | 9.4–14.6% |
| Eesti Keskerakond (ECR) | 0.0% | 11.7% | 10.5–13.1% | 10.1–13.5% | 9.8–13.8% | 9.3–14.5% |
| Eesti Keskerakond (RE) | 0.0% | 8.7% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.4–10.3% | 7.1–10.6% | 6.6–11.2% |
| Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.7% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.1% | 5.3–8.4% | 4.9–9.0% |
| Eesti 200 (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.7–2.8% |
| Koos (*) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–2.0% |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0–0.2% | 0.0–0.3% | 0.0–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% |
| Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0–0.2% | 0.0–0.3% | 0.0–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Eesti Reformierakond (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Eesti Keskerakond (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Eesti Keskerakond (RE) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti 200 (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Koos (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.7% | 99.9% | Median |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 70% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 30% | 30% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98.7% | 98.9% | Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 27% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 73% | 73% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti 200 (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Koos (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koos (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Eesti Keskerakond (ECR) – Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.6% | 99.9% | Median |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 70% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 30% | 30% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond (ECR) – Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98.7% | 98.9% | Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 24–29 August 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.65%