Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 3–7 September 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) | 0.0% | 21.8% | 20.1–23.7% | 19.6–24.2% | 19.2–24.7% | 18.4–25.6% |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) | 0.0% | 15.8% | 14.3–17.5% | 13.9–18.0% | 13.5–18.4% | 12.9–19.2% |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.9% | 13.5–16.6% | 13.0–17.0% | 12.7–17.4% | 12.0–18.2% |
| Eesti Reformierakond (RE) | 0.0% | 11.9% | 10.6–13.4% | 10.3–13.9% | 9.9–14.3% | 9.3–15.0% |
| Eesti Keskerakond (ECR) | 0.0% | 11.9% | 10.6–13.4% | 10.3–13.9% | 9.9–14.3% | 9.3–15.0% |
| Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.9% | 7.8–10.3% | 7.5–10.7% | 7.2–11.0% | 6.7–11.7% |
| Eesti Keskerakond (RE) | 0.0% | 8.9% | 7.8–10.3% | 7.5–10.7% | 7.2–11.0% | 6.7–11.7% |
| Eesti 200 (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.4–2.3% |
| Koos (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.4–2.3% |
| Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.1% |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.1% |
| Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Eesti Reformierakond (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Eesti Keskerakond (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Eesti Keskerakond (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Eesti 200 (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Koos (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 98% | 98% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.2% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98.6% | 98.6% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.5% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 11% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 92% | 92% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti 200 (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Koos (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koos (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Eesti Keskerakond (ECR) – Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 91% | 99.9% | Median |
| 3 | 9% | 9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (ECR) – Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.5% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.2% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Turu-uuringute AS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 3–7 September 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 872
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 4.02%