Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 11–17 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) | 0.0% | 26.7% | 25.0–28.6% | 24.5–29.1% | 24.1–29.5% | 23.2–30.4% |
| Vlaams Belang (PfE) | 0.0% | 23.2% | 21.6–25.0% | 21.1–25.5% | 20.7–25.9% | 19.9–26.8% |
| Vooruit (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.8% | 13.4–16.3% | 13.1–16.8% | 12.7–17.1% | 12.1–17.9% |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) | 0.0% | 11.3% | 10.1–12.7% | 9.8–13.1% | 9.5–13.4% | 8.9–14.1% |
| Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 8.9% | 7.8–10.2% | 7.5–10.5% | 7.3–10.8% | 6.8–11.5% |
| Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) | 0.0% | 6.8% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.6–8.3% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.1% |
| Groen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 6.5% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.1–8.2% | 4.7–8.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Vlaams Belang (PfE) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Vooruit (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–3 |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Groen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 6% | 100% | |
| 4 | 92% | 94% | Median |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 78% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 22% | 22% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 2 | 98% | 99.1% | Median |
| 3 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 80% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 20% | 20% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.8% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 87% | 87% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Groen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 76% | 76% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vlaams Belang (PfE) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Vooruit (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–3 |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Vlaams Belang (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 78% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 22% | 22% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 2 | 98% | 99.1% | Median |
| 3 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 80% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 20% | 20% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.8% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 87% | 87% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 11–17 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.58%