Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 18–21 November 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) 0.0% 24.6% 22.9–26.4% 22.4–26.9% 22.0–27.4% 21.2–28.3%
Vlaams Belang (PfE) 0.0% 23.5% 21.8–25.3% 21.4–25.8% 21.0–26.2% 20.2–27.1%
Vooruit (S&D) 0.0% 15.5% 14.1–17.1% 13.7–17.5% 13.4–17.9% 12.7–18.7%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) 0.0% 13.3% 12.0–14.8% 11.6–15.2% 11.3–15.6% 10.7–16.3%
Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) 0.0% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Groen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Vlaams Belang (PfE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Vooruit (S&D) 0 2 2 2 2 1–3
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Groen (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 63% 100% Median
4 37% 37%  
5 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 85% 99.9% Median
4 15% 15%  
5 0% 0%  

Vooruit (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 98.5% 99.5% Median
3 0.9% 0.9%  
4 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 21% 100%  
2 79% 79% Median
3 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100% Last Result
1 89% 89% Median
2 0% 0%  

Groen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100% Last Result
1 82% 82% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Vooruit (S&D) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 1–3
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 0–1
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Vlaams Belang (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 85% 99.9% Median
4 15% 15%  
5 0% 0%  

Vooruit (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 98.5% 99.5% Median
3 0.9% 0.9%  
4 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 21% 100%  
2 79% 79% Median
3 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100% Last Result
1 89% 89% Median
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations