Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 4–11 March 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vlaams Belang (PfE) | 0.0% | 25.7% | 24.0–27.5% | 23.5–28.1% | 23.1–28.5% | 22.3–29.4% |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) | 0.0% | 25.5% | 23.8–27.3% | 23.3–27.8% | 22.9–28.3% | 22.1–29.2% |
| Vooruit (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.3% | 13.0–15.8% | 12.6–16.2% | 12.3–16.6% | 11.6–17.4% |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) | 0.0% | 11.7% | 10.5–13.1% | 10.1–13.5% | 9.8–13.9% | 9.3–14.5% |
| Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.7% |
| Groen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 6.6% | 5.7–7.7% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.2–8.3% | 4.8–8.9% |
| Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vlaams Belang (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Vooruit (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Groen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Vlaams Belang (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 23% | 100% | |
| 4 | 76% | 77% | Median |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 28% | 100% | |
| 4 | 72% | 72% | Median |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 70% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 30% | 30% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Groen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 76% | 76% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 55% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 45% | 45% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vlaams Belang (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Vooruit (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Vlaams Belang (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 23% | 100% | |
| 4 | 76% | 77% | Median |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 70% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 30% | 30% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 55% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 45% | 45% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 4–11 March 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.21%