Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 16–23 September 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vlaams Belang (PfE) | 0.0% | 26.7% | 25.0–28.6% | 24.5–29.1% | 24.1–29.5% | 23.2–30.4% |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) | 0.0% | 23.4% | 21.7–25.2% | 21.3–25.7% | 20.9–26.1% | 20.1–27.0% |
| Vooruit (S&D) | 0.0% | 13.6% | 12.3–15.1% | 11.9–15.5% | 11.6–15.9% | 11.0–16.6% |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) | 0.0% | 13.4% | 12.1–14.9% | 11.7–15.3% | 11.4–15.7% | 10.8–16.4% |
| Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 9.1% | 8.0–10.4% | 7.7–10.7% | 7.5–11.1% | 7.0–11.7% |
| Groen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 7.3% | 6.3–8.5% | 6.1–8.8% | 5.8–9.1% | 5.4–9.7% |
| Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) | 0.0% | 5.7% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.6–7.1% | 4.4–7.3% | 4.1–7.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vlaams Belang (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Vooruit (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Groen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Vlaams Belang (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 90% | 91% | Median |
| 5 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 84% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 16% | 16% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 11% | 100% | |
| 2 | 89% | 89% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 13% | 100% | |
| 2 | 87% | 87% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Groen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 94% | 94% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 78% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 22% | 22% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vlaams Belang (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Vooruit (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Vlaams Belang (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 90% | 91% | Median |
| 5 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 13% | 100% | |
| 2 | 87% | 87% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 11% | 100% | |
| 2 | 89% | 89% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 78% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 22% | 22% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 16–23 September 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.82%