Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 2–9 March 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) | 0.0% | 25.5% | 23.8–27.3% | 23.3–27.8% | 22.9–28.3% | 22.1–29.2% |
| Vlaams Belang (PfE) | 0.0% | 25.4% | 23.7–27.2% | 23.2–27.7% | 22.8–28.2% | 22.0–29.1% |
| Vooruit (S&D) | 0.0% | 12.8% | 11.5–14.2% | 11.2–14.6% | 10.9–15.0% | 10.3–15.7% |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) | 0.0% | 12.6% | 11.3–14.0% | 11.0–14.4% | 10.7–14.8% | 10.1–15.5% |
| Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 9.8% | 8.7–11.1% | 8.4–11.5% | 8.1–11.8% | 7.6–12.5% |
| Groen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 7.7% | 6.7–8.9% | 6.4–9.2% | 6.2–9.5% | 5.7–10.1% |
| Anders (RE) | 0.0% | 5.6% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.5–6.9% | 4.3–7.2% | 4.0–7.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Vlaams Belang (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Vooruit (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Groen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Anders (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 28% | 100% | |
| 4 | 72% | 72% | Median |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 28% | 100% | |
| 4 | 72% | 72% | Median |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 30% | 100% | |
| 2 | 70% | 70% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 37% | 100% | |
| 2 | 63% | 63% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98.8% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Groen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Anders (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Anders (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 76% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 24% | 24% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vlaams Belang (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Vooruit (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Anders (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Vlaams Belang (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 28% | 100% | |
| 4 | 72% | 72% | Median |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 37% | 100% | |
| 2 | 63% | 63% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 30% | 100% | |
| 2 | 70% | 70% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98.8% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Anders (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 76% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 24% | 24% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 2–9 March 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1001
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.78%