Opinion Poll by Medián, 4–10 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0.0% 42.8% 40.8–44.8% 40.2–45.4% 39.8–45.9% 38.8–46.9%
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0.0% 30.7% 28.9–32.6% 28.3–33.2% 27.9–33.6% 27.1–34.6%
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0.0% 7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.2–9.4%
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0.0% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.3–7.8% 5.0–8.1% 4.6–8.7%
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.5–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%
Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%
Jobbik (NI) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.9%
Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Második Reformkor (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 11 10–11 10–11 10–12 10–12
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0 7 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–9
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0 1 1 1 1–2 0–2
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jobbik (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Második Reformkor (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 10% 99.9%  
11 87% 90% Median, Majority
12 3% 3%  
13 0% 0%  

Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 62% 99.9% Median
8 37% 38%  
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 39% 99.9%  
2 61% 61% Median
3 0% 0%  

Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100% Last Result
1 94% 99.3% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Momentum Mozgalom (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Momentum Mozgalom (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Jobbik (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Második Reformkor (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Második Reformkor (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 11 90% 10–11 10–11 10–12 10–12
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) – Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) 0 7 0% 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–9
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Jobbik (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 10% 99.9%  
11 87% 90% Median, Majority
12 3% 3%  
13 0% 0%  

Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) – Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 62% 99.9% Median
8 37% 38%  
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 39% 99.9%  
2 61% 61% Median
3 0% 0%  

Jobbik (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations