Opinion Poll by IDEA Intézet, 24–31 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0.0% 40.8% 39.2–42.4% 38.7–42.9% 38.3–43.3% 37.6–44.1%
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0.0% 33.8% 32.3–35.4% 31.8–35.8% 31.4–36.2% 30.7–37.0%
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0.0% 7.9% 7.1–8.9% 6.9–9.2% 6.7–9.4% 6.3–9.9%
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0.0% 6.0% 5.3–6.9% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.8%
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.3%
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.1%
Nép Pártján (*) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.9%
Jobbik (NI) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.9%
Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.9%
Második Reformkor (*) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.9%
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.9%
Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8%
Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 10 10 10–11 9–11 9–11
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0 8 8–9 8–9 8–9 8–9
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nép Pártján (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jobbik (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Második Reformkor (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 5% 100%  
10 88% 95% Median
11 7% 7% Majority
12 0% 0%  

Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.4% 100%  
8 73% 99.6% Median
9 27% 27%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 28% 100%  
2 72% 72% Median
3 0% 0%  

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98.7% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Momentum Mozgalom (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Momentum Mozgalom (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Nép Pártján (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nép Pártján (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Jobbik (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Második Reformkor (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Második Reformkor (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 10 7% 10 10–11 9–11 9–11
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) – Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) 0 8 0% 8–9 8–9 8–9 8–9
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 0–1
Jobbik (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 5% 100%  
10 88% 95% Median
11 7% 7% Majority
12 0% 0%  

Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) – Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.4% 100%  
8 73% 99.6% Median
9 27% 27%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98.7% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Jobbik (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations