Opinion Poll by Medián, 3–10 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0.0% 42.9% 40.9–44.9% 40.3–45.5% 39.9–46.0% 38.9–47.0%
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0.0% 38.9% 36.9–40.9% 36.4–41.5% 35.9–42.0% 35.0–42.9%
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Jobbik (NI) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Második Reformkor (*) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.9%
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 10–12
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0 10 9–11 9–11 9–11 9–11
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Jobbik (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Második Reformkor (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 15% 100%  
11 73% 85% Median, Majority
12 12% 12%  
13 0% 0%  

Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 16% 100%  
10 70% 84% Median
11 14% 14% Majority
12 0% 0%  

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 0.9%  
2 0% 0%  

Jobbik (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Momentum Mozgalom (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Momentum Mozgalom (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Második Reformkor (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Második Reformkor (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 11 85% 10–12 10–12 10–12 10–12
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) – Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) 0 10 14% 9–11 9–11 9–11 9–11
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 0 0% 0 0 0–1 0–1
Jobbik (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 15% 100%  
11 73% 85% Median, Majority
12 12% 12%  
13 0% 0%  

Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) – Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 16% 100%  
10 70% 84% Median
11 14% 14% Majority
12 0% 0%  

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Jobbik (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations