Opinion Poll by Nézőpont Intézet, 16–18 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0.0% | 47.0% | 45.0–49.0% | 44.4–49.6% | 43.9–50.1% | 43.0–51.1% |
| Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) | 0.0% | 33.0% | 31.1–34.9% | 30.6–35.5% | 30.1–36.0% | 29.3–36.9% |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) | 0.0% | 5.6% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.5–7.0% | 4.3–7.2% | 4.0–7.7% |
| Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.7% |
| Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Momentum Mozgalom (RE) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0 | 11 | 11–12 | 11–12 | 11–12 | 10–13 |
| Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Momentum Mozgalom (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 11 | 62% | 98.6% | Median, Majority |
| 12 | 36% | 37% | |
| 13 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 18% | 100% | |
| 8 | 76% | 82% | Median |
| 9 | 6% | 6% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 92% | 93% | Median |
| 2 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 81% | 81% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Momentum Mozgalom (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Momentum Mozgalom (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0 | 11 | 98.6% | 11–12 | 11–12 | 11–12 | 10–13 |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 11 | 62% | 98.6% | Median, Majority |
| 12 | 36% | 37% | |
| 13 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 92% | 93% | Median |
| 2 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Nézőpont Intézet
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 16–18 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.23%