Opinion Poll by IDEA Intézet, 27 September–7 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0.0% 38.6% 37.0–40.2% 36.5–40.7% 36.2–41.1% 35.4–41.9%
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0.0% 36.7% 35.1–38.3% 34.6–38.7% 34.3–39.1% 33.5–39.9%
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0.0% 6.9% 6.2–7.8% 5.9–8.1% 5.7–8.3% 5.4–8.8%
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0.0% 6.9% 6.2–7.8% 5.9–8.1% 5.7–8.3% 5.4–8.8%
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.9% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.1–5.0% 2.8–5.4%
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.1%
Nép Pártján (*) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.9%
Második Reformkor (*) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.9%
Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.9%
Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8%
Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8%
Jobbik (NI) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8%
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 10 9–10 9–10 9–10 9–10
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0 9 9 9 8–10 8–10
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nép Pártján (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Második Reformkor (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jobbik (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 14% 99.9%  
10 86% 86% Median
11 0.2% 0.2% Majority
12 0% 0%  

Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 4% 100%  
9 93% 96% Median
10 3% 3%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 94% 100% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 93% 99.7% Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Momentum Mozgalom (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Momentum Mozgalom (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Nép Pártján (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nép Pártján (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Második Reformkor (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Második Reformkor (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Jobbik (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 10 0.2% 9–10 9–10 9–10 9–10
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) – Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) 0 9 0% 9 9 8–10 8–10
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 1 0% 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Jobbik (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 14% 99.9%  
10 86% 86% Median
11 0.2% 0.2% Majority
12 0% 0%  

Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) – Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 4% 100%  
9 93% 96% Median
10 3% 3%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 94% 100% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Jobbik (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations