Opinion Poll by 21 Kutatóközpont, 9–15 October 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) |
0.0% |
41.0% |
39.0–43.0% |
38.5–43.6% |
38.0–44.1% |
37.1–45.1% |
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) |
0.0% |
40.0% |
38.0–42.0% |
37.5–42.6% |
37.0–43.1% |
36.1–44.0% |
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.2–6.0% |
4.0–6.3% |
3.8–6.5% |
3.5–7.1% |
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.3–4.9% |
3.1–5.2% |
2.9–5.4% |
2.7–5.9% |
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.3–4.9% |
3.1–5.2% |
2.9–5.4% |
2.7–5.9% |
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) |
0.0% |
2.0% |
1.5–2.7% |
1.4–2.9% |
1.3–3.1% |
1.1–3.4% |
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–1.8% |
0.4–2.1% |
Jobbik (NI) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–1.8% |
0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
5% |
100% |
|
10 |
58% |
95% |
Median |
11 |
37% |
37% |
Majority |
12 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
9 |
13% |
99.9% |
|
10 |
70% |
87% |
Median |
11 |
17% |
17% |
Majority |
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
51% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
48% |
49% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
94% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
6% |
6% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
93% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
7% |
7% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Momentum Mozgalom (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Momentum Mozgalom (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Jobbik (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik (NI) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) |
0 |
10 |
17% |
9–11 |
9–11 |
9–11 |
9–11 |
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Jobbik (NI) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
9 |
13% |
99.9% |
|
10 |
70% |
87% |
Median |
11 |
17% |
17% |
Majority |
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
51% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
48% |
49% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Jobbik (NI)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: 21 Kutatóközpont
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 9–15 October 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.30%