Opinion Poll by Századvég, 1–31 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0.0% 43.0% 41.0–45.0% 40.4–45.6% 40.0–46.1% 39.0–47.1%
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0.0% 34.0% 32.1–36.0% 31.6–36.5% 31.1–37.0% 30.2–38.0%
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0.0% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 10 10–11 10–11 10–11 9–12
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0 8 8–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 2% 100%  
10 50% 98% Median
11 47% 47% Majority
12 0.6% 0.6%  
13 0% 0%  

Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 5% 100%  
8 74% 95% Median
9 20% 20%  
10 0% 0%  

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 84% 99.7% Median
2 16% 16%  
3 0% 0%  

Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 83% 99.7% Median
2 17% 17%  
3 0% 0%  

Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Momentum Mozgalom (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Momentum Mozgalom (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 10 47% 10–11 10–11 10–11 9–12
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 2% 100%  
10 50% 98% Median
11 47% 47% Majority
12 0.6% 0.6%  
13 0% 0%  

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 84% 99.7% Median
2 16% 16%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations