Opinion Poll by Medián, 28 October–4 November 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0.0% 46.0% 44.0–48.0% 43.4–48.6% 42.9–49.1% 42.0–50.1%
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0.0% 39.0% 37.1–41.0% 36.5–41.6% 36.0–42.1% 35.1–43.0%
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0.0% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Jobbik (NI) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0 11 10–11 10–12 10–12 10–12
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 9 9–10 9–10 8–10 8–10
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jobbik (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 18% 100%  
11 76% 82% Median, Majority
12 6% 6%  
13 0% 0%  

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 3% 100%  
9 75% 97% Median
10 22% 22%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 91% 92% Median
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Momentum Mozgalom (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Momentum Mozgalom (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Jobbik (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 9 0% 9–10 9–10 8–10 8–10
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 1 0% 1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Jobbik (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 3% 100%  
9 75% 97% Median
10 22% 22%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 91% 92% Median
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

Jobbik (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

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