Opinion Poll by Publicus Research, 14–19 November 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0.0% 38.7% 36.7–40.7% 36.2–41.3% 35.7–41.8% 34.8–42.7%
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0.0% 37.7% 35.8–39.7% 35.2–40.3% 34.7–40.8% 33.8–41.7%
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0.0% 8.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.5–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.8–11.5%
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%
Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%
Jobbik (NI) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0 9 9–10 9–10 9–10 8–10
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 9 9–10 9–10 8–10 8–10
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jobbik (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 2% 100%  
9 64% 98% Median
10 34% 34%  
11 0.5% 0.5% Majority
12 0% 0%  

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 3% 100%  
9 70% 97% Median
10 26% 27%  
11 0.2% 0.2% Majority
12 0% 0%  

Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 13% 100%  
2 87% 87% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100% Last Result
1 56% 56% Median
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Momentum Mozgalom (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Momentum Mozgalom (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Jobbik (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 9 0.2% 9–10 9–10 8–10 8–10
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Jobbik (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 3% 100%  
9 70% 97% Median
10 26% 27%  
11 0.2% 0.2% Majority
12 0% 0%  

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100% Last Result
1 56% 56% Median
2 0% 0%  

Jobbik (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations