Opinion Poll by Századvég, 14–19 November 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0.0% 40.0% 38.0–42.0% 37.5–42.6% 37.0–43.1% 36.1–44.0%
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0.0% 35.0% 33.1–37.0% 32.6–37.5% 32.1–38.0% 31.2–39.0%
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0.0% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 9 9–10 9–10 9–10 8–11
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0 8 8–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 2% 100%  
9 61% 98% Median
10 36% 37%  
11 0.9% 0.9% Majority
12 0% 0%  

Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 7% 100%  
8 74% 93% Median
9 20% 20%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 13% 100%  
2 87% 87% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 89% 99.7% Median
2 10% 10%  
3 0% 0%  

Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100% Last Result
1 54% 54% Median
2 0% 0%  

Momentum Mozgalom (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Momentum Mozgalom (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 9 0.9% 9–10 9–10 9–10 8–11
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 2% 100%  
9 61% 98% Median
10 36% 37%  
11 0.9% 0.9% Majority
12 0% 0%  

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 89% 99.7% Median
2 10% 10%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations