Opinion Poll by Társadalomkutató, 19–22 November 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0.0% | 45.0% | 43.0–47.0% | 42.4–47.6% | 41.9–48.1% | 41.0–49.1% |
| Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) | 0.0% | 37.0% | 35.1–39.0% | 34.5–39.6% | 34.0–40.0% | 33.2–41.0% |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Momentum Mozgalom (RE) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0 | 11 | 10–11 | 10–11 | 10–11 | 10–12 |
| Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) | 0 | 9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–10 |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Momentum Mozgalom (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 10 | 47% | 99.7% | |
| 11 | 51% | 53% | Median, Majority |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 42% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 56% | 58% | Median |
| 10 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 92% | 93% | Median |
| 2 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 92% | 92% | Median |
| 2 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Momentum Mozgalom (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Momentum Mozgalom (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0 | 11 | 53% | 10–11 | 10–11 | 10–11 | 10–12 |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 10 | 47% | 99.7% | |
| 11 | 51% | 53% | Median, Majority |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 92% | 93% | Median |
| 2 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Társadalomkutató
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 19–22 November 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.35%