Opinion Poll by Medián, 20–26 November 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0.0% 46.9% 45.1–48.8% 44.6–49.3% 44.1–49.7% 43.2–50.6%
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0.0% 35.9% 34.2–37.7% 33.7–38.2% 33.2–38.7% 32.4–39.6%
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0.0% 6.0% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.3% 4.8–7.5% 4.4–8.0%
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
Második Reformkor (*) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%
Jobbik (NI) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0 11 11–12 11–12 11–12 10–12
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 9 8–9 8–9 8–9 8–10
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Második Reformkor (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jobbik (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 2% 100%  
11 62% 98% Median, Majority
12 35% 35%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.3% 100%  
8 40% 99.7%  
9 59% 60% Median
10 0.9% 0.9%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 94% 95% Median
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  

Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Második Reformkor (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Második Reformkor (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Momentum Mozgalom (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Momentum Mozgalom (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Jobbik (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 9 0% 8–9 8–9 8–9 8–10
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 1 0% 1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Jobbik (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.3% 100%  
8 40% 99.7%  
9 59% 60% Median
10 0.9% 0.9%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 94% 95% Median
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  

Jobbik (NI)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

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