Opinion Poll by IDEA Intézet, 31 December 2024–10 January 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) | 0.0% | 44.5% | 42.8–46.1% | 42.4–46.6% | 42.0–47.0% | 41.2–47.8% |
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0.0% | 35.5% | 34.0–37.1% | 33.5–37.6% | 33.2–38.0% | 32.4–38.8% |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0.0% | 6.9% | 6.2–7.8% | 5.9–8.1% | 5.7–8.3% | 5.4–8.8% |
| Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) | 0.0% | 4.9% | 4.3–5.7% | 4.1–6.0% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.7–6.6% |
| Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.4–3.6% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.0–4.3% |
| Nép Pártján (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.9% |
| Második Reformkor (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.9% |
| Momentum Mozgalom (RE) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.9% |
| Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% |
| Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% |
| Jobbik (NI) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% |
| Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% |
| Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) | 0 | 11 | 10–11 | 10–11 | 10–12 | 10–12 |
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–9 |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nép Pártján (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Második Reformkor (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Momentum Mozgalom (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jobbik (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 34% | 100% | |
| 11 | 61% | 66% | Median, Majority |
| 12 | 4% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 39% | 100% | |
| 9 | 61% | 61% | Median |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 83% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 17% | 17% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 49% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 51% | 51% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Nép Pártján (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nép Pártján (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Második Reformkor (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Második Reformkor (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Momentum Mozgalom (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Momentum Mozgalom (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Jobbik (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) – Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) | 0 | 11 | 66% | 10–11 | 10–11 | 10–12 | 10–12 |
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–9 |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Jobbik (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) – Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 34% | 100% | |
| 11 | 61% | 66% | Median, Majority |
| 12 | 4% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 39% | 100% | |
| 9 | 61% | 61% | Median |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 83% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 17% | 17% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Jobbik (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: IDEA Intézet
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 31 December 2024–10 January 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1500
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.92%