Opinion Poll by Publicus Research, 20–29 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0.0% 42.0% 40.8–43.1% 40.5–43.5% 40.3–43.8% 39.7–44.3%
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0.0% 37.0% 35.9–38.1% 35.6–38.5% 35.3–38.7% 34.8–39.3%
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0.0% 9.0% 8.4–9.7% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.7–10.4%
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0.0% 5.0% 4.5–5.5% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.8% 4.1–6.1%
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.4% 2.5–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9%
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.7%
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0 10 9–10 9–10 9–10 9–11
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 9 8–9 8–9 8–9 8–9
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 15% 100%  
10 83% 85% Median
11 2% 2% Majority
12 0% 0%  

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 34% 100%  
9 65% 66% Median
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 97% 97% Median
3 0% 0%  

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100% Last Result, Median
1 50% 50%  
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Momentum Mozgalom (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Momentum Mozgalom (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 9 0% 8–9 8–9 8–9 8–9
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 34% 100%  
9 65% 66% Median
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100% Last Result, Median
1 50% 50%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations