Opinion Poll by IDEA Intézet, 15–23 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0.0% 44.0% 42.4–45.7% 41.9–46.1% 41.5–46.5% 40.7–47.3%
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0.0% 37.0% 35.4–38.6% 35.0–39.1% 34.6–39.5% 33.8–40.3%
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0.0% 6.0% 5.3–6.9% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.8%
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–5.8% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.7–6.6%
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.5%
Második Reformkor (*) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.9%
Nép Pártján (*) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.9%
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0 11 10–11 10–11 10–11 10–12
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 9 8–9 8–10 8–10 8–10
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Második Reformkor (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nép Pártján (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.2% 100%  
10 38% 99.8%  
11 60% 62% Median, Majority
12 2% 2%  
13 0% 0%  

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 17% 100%  
9 78% 83% Median
10 5% 5%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 96% 96% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 53% 100% Last Result, Median
1 47% 47%  
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Második Reformkor (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Második Reformkor (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Nép Pártján (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nép Pártján (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Momentum Mozgalom (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Momentum Mozgalom (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 9 0% 8–9 8–10 8–10 8–10
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 17% 100%  
9 78% 83% Median
10 5% 5%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 53% 100% Last Result, Median
1 47% 47%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations