Opinion Poll by IDEA Intézet, 30 September–7 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0.0% 48.9% 47.2–50.5% 46.7–51.0% 46.3–51.4% 45.5–52.2%
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0.0% 37.9% 36.3–39.6% 35.9–40.0% 35.5–40.4% 34.8–41.2%
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–5.8% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.7–6.6%
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.5%
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.1%
Második Reformkor (*) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.9%
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0 12 11–12 11–12 11–12 11–13
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 9 8–9 8–9 8–10 8–10
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Második Reformkor (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.4% 100%  
11 44% 99.6% Majority
12 55% 56% Median
13 1.0% 1.0%  
14 0% 0%  

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 16% 100%  
9 80% 84% Median
10 4% 4%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100% Last Result
1 51% 51% Median
2 0% 0%  

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Második Reformkor (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Második Reformkor (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Momentum Mozgalom (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Momentum Mozgalom (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 9 0% 8–9 8–9 8–10 8–10
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 0 0% 0 0 0–1 0–1

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 16% 100%  
9 80% 84% Median
10 4% 4%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations