Opinion Poll by Publicus Research, 10–18 November 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) | 0.0% | 47.2% | 45.2–49.2% | 44.6–49.8% | 44.1–50.3% | 43.2–51.3% |
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0.0% | 38.3% | 36.4–40.3% | 35.8–40.9% | 35.4–41.4% | 34.4–42.3% |
| Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.6–7.5% | 4.2–8.1% |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.7% |
| Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.8–4.7% |
| Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| Momentum Mozgalom (RE) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| Jobbik (NI) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) | 0 | 11 | 11–12 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 10–12 |
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 8–9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Momentum Mozgalom (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jobbik (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 7% | 100% | |
| 11 | 77% | 93% | Median, Majority |
| 12 | 16% | 16% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 13% | 100% | |
| 9 | 78% | 87% | Median |
| 10 | 9% | 9% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 89% | 89% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Momentum Mozgalom (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Momentum Mozgalom (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Jobbik (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) – Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) | 0 | 11 | 93% | 11–12 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 10–12 |
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 8–9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Jobbik (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) – Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 7% | 100% | |
| 11 | 77% | 93% | Median, Majority |
| 12 | 16% | 16% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 13% | 100% | |
| 9 | 78% | 87% | Median |
| 10 | 9% | 9% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Jobbik (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Publicus Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 10–18 November 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1002
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.05%