Opinion Poll by Millward Brown for The Sunday Independent, 21 July 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael | 25.5% | 29.7% | 27.9–31.7% | 27.3–32.2% | 26.9–32.7% | 26.0–33.6% |
| Fianna Fáil | 24.3% | 28.7% | 26.8–30.6% | 26.3–31.1% | 25.9–31.6% | 25.0–32.6% |
| Sinn Féin | 13.8% | 19.8% | 18.2–21.5% | 17.7–22.0% | 17.4–22.4% | 16.6–23.3% |
| Labour Party | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.9–8.1% | 5.7–8.4% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.0–9.3% |
| Independent | 15.9% | 5.9% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.7–7.3% | 4.5–7.5% | 4.1–8.1% |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Independents 4 Change | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael | 49 | 56 | 52–59 | 51–60 | 49–61 | 47–65 |
| Fianna Fáil | 44 | 52 | 50–56 | 48–57 | 47–57 | 43–59 |
| Sinn Féin | 23 | 37 | 36–40 | 35–41 | 34–41 | 32–43 |
| Labour Party | 7 | 8 | 6–12 | 4–13 | 3–16 | 2–19 |
| Independent | 19 | 2 | 1–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Independents 4 Change | 4 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
Fine Gael
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 48 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 49 | 1.2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 50 | 2% | 97% | |
| 51 | 2% | 96% | |
| 52 | 5% | 93% | |
| 53 | 8% | 88% | |
| 54 | 11% | 80% | |
| 55 | 15% | 70% | |
| 56 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 57 | 12% | 45% | |
| 58 | 18% | 33% | |
| 59 | 9% | 15% | |
| 60 | 3% | 6% | |
| 61 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 45 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98% | |
| 48 | 3% | 96% | |
| 49 | 3% | 93% | |
| 50 | 6% | 90% | |
| 51 | 15% | 84% | |
| 52 | 23% | 69% | Median |
| 53 | 13% | 46% | |
| 54 | 17% | 33% | |
| 55 | 5% | 16% | |
| 56 | 5% | 11% | |
| 57 | 4% | 6% | |
| 58 | 2% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 33 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 34 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 35 | 4% | 97% | |
| 36 | 13% | 93% | |
| 37 | 44% | 80% | Median |
| 38 | 17% | 36% | |
| 39 | 8% | 20% | |
| 40 | 5% | 12% | |
| 41 | 5% | 7% | |
| 42 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 4 | 3% | 97% | |
| 5 | 3% | 95% | |
| 6 | 11% | 91% | |
| 7 | 29% | 80% | Last Result |
| 8 | 20% | 51% | Median |
| 9 | 7% | 31% | |
| 10 | 9% | 24% | |
| 11 | 4% | 15% | |
| 12 | 3% | 11% | |
| 13 | 3% | 7% | |
| 14 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 19 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Independent
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | |
| 1 | 22% | 94% | |
| 2 | 41% | 72% | Median |
| 3 | 31% | 31% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 2% | 4% | |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Independents 4 Change
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 83% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 5% | 17% | |
| 2 | 5% | 12% | |
| 3 | 3% | 7% | |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil | 93 | 109 | 100% | 105–111 | 103–112 | 101–113 | 99–114 |
| Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin | 67 | 90 | 99.2% | 86–94 | 84–95 | 83–96 | 80–98 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 58 | 64 | 0% | 60–68 | 59–70 | 58–71 | 56–74 |
| Fine Gael – Labour Party | 56 | 64 | 0% | 60–67 | 59–70 | 58–71 | 56–74 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 53 | 60 | 0% | 57–64 | 56–66 | 55–67 | 52–70 |
| Fianna Fáil – Labour Party | 51 | 60 | 0% | 57–64 | 56–66 | 55–67 | 52–70 |
| Fine Gael | 49 | 56 | 0% | 52–59 | 51–60 | 49–61 | 47–65 |
| Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 51 | 56 | 0% | 52–59 | 51–60 | 49–61 | 47–65 |
| Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas | 46 | 52 | 0% | 50–56 | 48–57 | 47–58 | 43–59 |
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 100 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 101 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 102 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 103 | 2% | 96% | |
| 104 | 3% | 95% | |
| 105 | 6% | 91% | |
| 106 | 8% | 85% | |
| 107 | 7% | 77% | |
| 108 | 12% | 70% | Median |
| 109 | 23% | 57% | |
| 110 | 20% | 35% | |
| 111 | 10% | 15% | |
| 112 | 2% | 5% | |
| 113 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 114 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 99.2% | Majority |
| 82 | 0.7% | 98.6% | |
| 83 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 84 | 2% | 96% | |
| 85 | 2% | 94% | |
| 86 | 3% | 92% | |
| 87 | 7% | 89% | |
| 88 | 10% | 82% | |
| 89 | 18% | 72% | Median |
| 90 | 12% | 54% | |
| 91 | 15% | 42% | |
| 92 | 7% | 26% | |
| 93 | 7% | 19% | |
| 94 | 5% | 12% | |
| 95 | 4% | 7% | |
| 96 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 97 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 98 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 59 | 2% | 96% | |
| 60 | 5% | 94% | |
| 61 | 7% | 89% | |
| 62 | 9% | 82% | |
| 63 | 15% | 73% | |
| 64 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 65 | 19% | 46% | |
| 66 | 12% | 26% | |
| 67 | 4% | 15% | |
| 68 | 3% | 10% | |
| 69 | 2% | 7% | |
| 70 | 2% | 5% | |
| 71 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 72 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 0.6% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 3% | 96% | |
| 60 | 5% | 94% | |
| 61 | 7% | 89% | |
| 62 | 9% | 81% | |
| 63 | 15% | 72% | |
| 64 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 65 | 19% | 45% | |
| 66 | 12% | 26% | |
| 67 | 4% | 14% | |
| 68 | 3% | 10% | |
| 69 | 2% | 7% | |
| 70 | 2% | 5% | |
| 71 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 72 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 52 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 54 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 55 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 56 | 3% | 96% | |
| 57 | 5% | 93% | |
| 58 | 10% | 88% | |
| 59 | 17% | 78% | |
| 60 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 61 | 12% | 49% | |
| 62 | 12% | 37% | |
| 63 | 10% | 26% | |
| 64 | 7% | 16% | |
| 65 | 3% | 9% | |
| 66 | 2% | 6% | |
| 67 | 2% | 4% | |
| 68 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 54 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98% | |
| 56 | 3% | 96% | |
| 57 | 5% | 93% | |
| 58 | 10% | 88% | |
| 59 | 17% | 77% | |
| 60 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 61 | 12% | 48% | |
| 62 | 12% | 37% | |
| 63 | 9% | 25% | |
| 64 | 7% | 16% | |
| 65 | 3% | 9% | |
| 66 | 2% | 6% | |
| 67 | 2% | 4% | |
| 68 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 48 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 49 | 1.2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 50 | 2% | 97% | |
| 51 | 2% | 96% | |
| 52 | 5% | 93% | |
| 53 | 8% | 88% | |
| 54 | 11% | 80% | |
| 55 | 15% | 70% | |
| 56 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 57 | 12% | 45% | |
| 58 | 18% | 33% | |
| 59 | 9% | 15% | |
| 60 | 3% | 6% | |
| 61 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 48 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 49 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 50 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 51 | 2% | 96% | Last Result |
| 52 | 5% | 94% | |
| 53 | 8% | 89% | |
| 54 | 11% | 81% | |
| 55 | 15% | 70% | |
| 56 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 57 | 12% | 46% | |
| 58 | 18% | 33% | |
| 59 | 9% | 15% | |
| 60 | 3% | 7% | |
| 61 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 98% | Last Result |
| 47 | 2% | 98% | |
| 48 | 3% | 96% | |
| 49 | 3% | 93% | |
| 50 | 6% | 91% | |
| 51 | 15% | 84% | |
| 52 | 23% | 70% | Median |
| 53 | 12% | 46% | |
| 54 | 17% | 34% | |
| 55 | 6% | 17% | |
| 56 | 5% | 11% | |
| 57 | 4% | 6% | |
| 58 | 2% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Millward Brown
- Commissioner(s): The Sunday Independent
- Fieldwork period: 21 July 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 956
- Simulations done: 1,048,575
- Error estimate: 1.86%