Labour Party
Voting Intentions
Last result: 6.6% (General Election of 26 February 2016)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 5.1% | 3.7–6.5% | 3.5–6.9% | 3.2–7.2% | 2.9–7.9% |
| 27 January–2 February 2020 | Survation Sinn Féin |
6.0% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.7–7.5% | 4.3–8.1% |
| 30 January–1 February 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.7–5.7% |
| 25–30 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.6% | 3.6–7.2% |
| 24–30 January 2020 | Panelbase The Times |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 1–25 January 2020 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
6.1% | 5.2–7.2% | 4.9–7.5% | 4.7–7.8% | 4.3–8.3% |
| 16–23 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| 16–18 January 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
5.0% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.2% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.6–6.8% |
| 4–14 January 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4.0% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.5% | 2.6–6.0% |
| 24 December 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
5.0% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.7–6.6% |
| 5–17 December 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.8–7.4% | 4.6–7.7% | 4.2–8.3% |
| 14–21 November 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 1–12 November 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.8–7.4% | 4.6–7.7% | 4.2–8.3% |
| 17–24 October 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| 3–15 October 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5.0% | 4.2–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.6% | 3.4–7.2% |
| 11–13 October 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
6.1% | 5.3–7.1% | 5.0–7.3% | 4.9–7.6% | 4.5–8.1% |
| 5–17 September 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3.0% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.8–4.8% |
| 5–12 September 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 4–16 July 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5.1% | 4.3–6.2% | 4.0–6.5% | 3.8–6.7% | 3.5–7.3% |
| 31 May–11 June 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5.0% | 4.2–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.6% | 3.4–7.2% |
| 24 May 2019 | Red C RTÉ |
5.1% | 4.5–5.6% | 4.4–5.8% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.0–6.2% |
| 1–22 May 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
6.0% | 5.3–6.8% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.6–7.7% |
| 6–16 May 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5.0% | 4.4–5.7% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% |
| 2–14 May 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4.0% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.0–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| 6–8 May 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
6.9% | 6.2–7.8% | 5.9–8.1% | 5.7–8.3% | 5.4–8.8% |
| 11–17 April 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 4–16 April 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.1–5.3% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–6.0% |
| 21–28 March 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 28 February–12 March 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5.1% | 4.2–6.1% | 4.0–6.4% | 3.8–6.7% | 3.5–7.2% |
| 4–5 March 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
6.0% | 5.2–7.0% | 5.0–7.3% | 4.8–7.5% | 4.4–8.0% |
| 14–20 February 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 31 January–12 February 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5.0% | 4.1–6.0% | 3.9–6.3% | 3.7–6.6% | 3.4–7.1% |
| 17–24 January 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 4–15 January 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4.0% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.0–5.2% | 2.9–5.5% | 2.6–6.0% |
| 14–21 December 2018 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
6.9% | 6.1–7.8% | 5.9–8.0% | 5.7–8.2% | 5.3–8.7% |
| 6–18 December 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4.9% | 4.1–6.0% | 3.9–6.3% | 3.7–6.6% | 3.4–7.1% |
| 1–13 December 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
5.0% | 4.2–6.1% | 4.0–6.4% | 3.8–6.6% | 3.4–7.1% |
| 15–22 November 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 1–13 November 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.8–7.4% | 4.6–7.7% | 4.2–8.3% |
| 26 October 2018 | Red C RTÉ |
7.0% | 6.5–7.6% | 6.3–7.8% | 6.2–7.9% | 5.9–8.2% |
| 11–17 October 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 5–16 October 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.1% | 5.2–7.3% | 5.0–7.6% | 4.8–7.9% | 4.4–8.4% |
| 10–12 October 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.7–5.7% |
| 3–10 October 2018 | Red C Paddy Power |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 6–18 September 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.6% | 3.4–7.1% |
| 6–13 September 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6.1% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.4–8.3% |
| 15–24 August 2018 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
6.1% | 5.2–7.2% | 4.9–7.5% | 4.7–7.8% | 4.3–8.3% |
| 5–17 July 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3.0% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.8–4.8% |
| 12 June 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| 10–16 May 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 3–15 May 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4.1% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.1–5.3% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–6.0% |
| 19–30 April 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.6% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 26 April 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6.1% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.4–8.3% |
| 16–17 April 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
5.0% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.2% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.6–6.8% |
| 5–17 April 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.0% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.8–7.4% | 4.6–7.7% | 4.2–8.2% |
| 15–22 March 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6.1% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 6–13 March 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5.9% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.7–7.3% | 4.5–7.6% | 4.1–8.2% |
| 15–22 February 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 6–14 February 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–5.0% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.5–5.7% |
| 1–13 February 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 3.9–6.3% | 3.7–6.6% | 3.4–7.1% |
| 15–25 January 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 22–23 January 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.7–5.7% |
| 4–16 January 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.8–7.4% | 4.6–7.7% | 4.2–8.3% |
| 24 December 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5.0% | 4.2–6.1% | 4.0–6.4% | 3.8–6.7% | 3.4–7.2% |
| 22 December 2017 | Ireland Thinks Irish Daily Mail |
6.0% | 5.2–7.0% | 5.0–7.3% | 4.8–7.6% | 4.4–8.1% |
| 7 December 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.7–5.7% |
| 23 November 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 7 November 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3.1% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.1–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| 20 October 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 10 October 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4.0% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.1–5.3% | 2.9–5.5% | 2.6–6.0% |
| 2 October 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.7–5.7% |
| 22 September 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| 12 September 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5.0% | 4.2–6.1% | 4.0–6.4% | 3.8–6.6% | 3.4–7.1% |
| 21 July 2017 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
6.9% | 5.9–8.1% | 5.7–8.4% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.0–9.3% |
| 11 July 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 3.9–6.3% | 3.7–6.6% | 3.4–7.1% |
| 5 July 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6.1% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 10 June 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| 25 May 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 13 May 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4.0% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.5% | 2.6–6.0% |
| 28 April 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 11 April 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4.9% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.7–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| 24 March 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 8 March 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.8–7.4% | 4.6–7.7% | 4.3–8.3% |
| 28 February 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.7–5.7% |
| 23 February 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| 16 February 2017 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
6.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.5% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.3% |
| 8 February 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.8–7.4% | 4.6–7.7% | 4.2–8.2% |
| 26 January 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| 21 January 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4.9% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.7–6.5% | 3.3–7.0% |
| 13 December 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 3.9–6.3% | 3.7–6.6% | 3.4–7.1% |
| 6 December 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
6.0% | 5.2–7.0% | 5.0–7.3% | 4.8–7.5% | 4.4–8.0% |
| 25 November 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.6% | 3.6–7.2% |
| 9 November 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3.0% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.4% | 1.8–4.8% |
| 27 October 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| 20 October 2016 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
8.0% | 6.9–9.2% | 6.6–9.6% | 6.4–9.9% | 5.9–10.5% |
| 12 October 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5.0% | 4.2–6.1% | 4.0–6.4% | 3.8–6.6% | 3.4–7.2% |
| 4 October 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
5.1% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.1–6.2% | 4.0–6.5% | 3.6–7.0% |
| 22 September 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
7.0% | 6.1–8.1% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.7% | 5.1–9.3% |
| 14 September 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.6% | 5.5–8.9% | 5.1–9.5% |
| 27 July 2016 | Red C Paddy Power |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| 13 July 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 13 July 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5.9% | 5.0–7.1% | 4.8–7.4% | 4.6–7.7% | 4.2–8.3% |
| 7 July 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
5.1% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.1–6.2% | 4.0–6.5% | 3.6–7.0% |
| 29 June 2016 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| 15 June 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5.1% | 4.2–6.1% | 4.0–6.4% | 3.8–6.7% | 3.4–7.2% |
| 26 May 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6.1% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.7% | 4.4–8.3% |
| 11 May 2016 | Red C Paddy Power |
5.1% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.6% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 11 May 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5.0% | 4.2–6.1% | 4.0–6.4% | 3.8–6.6% | 3.4–7.2% |
| 13 April 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4.0% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.5% | 2.6–6.0% |
| 10 March 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–6.0% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Labour Party.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5–2.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 27% | 93% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 32% | 67% | Median |
| 5.5–6.5% | 25% | 35% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 9% | 10% | Last Result |
| 7.5–8.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 7 seats (General Election of 26 February 2016)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 5 | 1–11 | 0–14 | 0–15 | 0–17 |
| 27 January–2 February 2020 | Survation Sinn Féin |
9 | 4–14 | 4–15 | 4–15 | 3–17 |
| 30 January–1 February 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
2 | 1–5 | 1–6 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| 25–30 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5 | 2–8 | 1–11 | 1–12 | 1–15 |
| 24–30 January 2020 | Panelbase The Times |
4 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 1–11 | 1–13 |
| 1–25 January 2020 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
7 | 4–15 | 3–16 | 2–17 | 1–18 |
| 16–23 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–7 |
| 16–18 January 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
5 | 2–7 | 1–8 | 1–8 | 1–10 |
| 4–14 January 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 24 December 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
4 | 1–6 | 1–7 | 1–8 | 0–10 |
| 5–17 December 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
7 | 4–13 | 4–15 | 3–17 | 1–19 |
| 14–21 November 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6 | 4–9 | 3–11 | 2–12 | 1–14 |
| 1–12 November 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
8 | 6–15 | 4–16 | 2–16 | 2–18 |
| 17–24 October 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 3–15 October 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5 | 1–8 | 1–9 | 0–10 | 0–13 |
| 11–13 October 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
4 | 4–8 | 2–9 | 2–10 | 1–14 |
| 5–17 September 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| 5–12 September 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5 | 3–10 | 2–12 | 1–13 | 1–15 |
| 4–16 July 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4 | 1–7 | 0–7 | 0–9 | 0–12 |
| 31 May–11 June 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 1–7 | 1–8 | 0–8 | 0–10 |
| 24 May 2019 | Red C RTÉ |
5 | 3–7 | 1–8 | 1–9 | 1–10 |
| 1–22 May 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 | 3–14 |
| 6–16 May 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 2–4 | 1–4 | 1–5 | 1–7 |
| 2–14 May 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| 6–8 May 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
10 | 5–12 | 5–12 | 5–12 | 3–12 |
| 11–17 April 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5 | 2–9 | 0–10 | 0–12 | 0–15 |
| 4–16 April 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–8 |
| 21–28 March 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 2–6 | 1–7 | 0–8 | 0–10 |
| 28 February–12 March 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 2–5 | 1–7 | 0–8 | 0–8 |
| 4–5 March 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
6 | 2–9 | 2–10 | 2–11 | 1–14 |
| 14–20 February 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| 31 January–12 February 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 1–8 | 1–9 | 1–11 | 0–14 |
| 17–24 January 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5 | 4–9 | 3–11 | 2–13 | 1–14 |
| 4–15 January 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–6 |
| 14–21 December 2018 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
6 | 6–13 | 4–13 | 3–14 | 1–16 |
| 6–18 December 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 1–5 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| 1–13 December 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
3 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| 15–22 November 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
7 | 4–9 | 3–10 | 2–13 | 1–15 |
| 1–13 November 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
7 | 3–8 | 2–9 | 2–10 | 1–13 |
| 26 October 2018 | Red C RTÉ |
9 | 6–11 | 6–13 | 5–13 | 5–14 |
| 11–17 October 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5 | 1–9 | 0–10 | 0–11 | 0–14 |
| 5–16 October 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6 | 4–7 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 1–16 |
| 10–12 October 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 3–10 October 2018 | Red C Paddy Power |
2 | 1–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| 6–18 September 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5 | 2–7 | 1–7 | 0–7 | 0–9 |
| 6–13 September 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6 | 3–11 | 3–12 | 2–13 | 1–14 |
| 15–24 August 2018 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
5 | 3–8 | 3–9 | 2–11 | 1–14 |
| 5–17 July 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| 12 June 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–8 | 0–10 |
| 10–16 May 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
10 | 5–15 | 4–15 | 3–16 | 1–17 |
| 3–15 May 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| 19–30 April 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
3 | 3–6 | 1–7 | 0–7 | 0–9 |
| 26 April 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 2–10 | 2–14 | 2–14 | 0–17 |
| 16–17 April 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
2 | 2–7 | 2–7 | 1–7 | 0–8 |
| 5–17 April 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
10 | 5–15 | 4–16 | 3–16 | 2–17 |
| 15–22 March 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6 | 3–8 | 2–10 | 2–11 | 1–14 |
| 6–13 March 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
7 | 2–8 | 2–9 | 2–12 | 1–14 |
| 15–22 February 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
9 | 5–10 | 3–13 | 3–13 | 2–13 |
| 6–14 February 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–5 |
| 1–13 February 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 1–5 | 1–6 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| 15–25 January 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6 | 3–8 | 2–10 | 1–11 | 1–13 |
| 22–23 January 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 4–16 January 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
7 | 4–9 | 3–10 | 2–12 | 1–15 |
| 24 December 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 1–7 | 0–8 | 0–8 | 0–10 |
| 22 December 2017 | Ireland Thinks Irish Daily Mail |
6 | 1–8 | 1–9 | 1–9 | 1–12 |
| 7 December 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
0 | 0–3 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–8 |
| 23 November 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6 | 3–7 | 2–9 | 1–11 | 1–17 |
| 7 November 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| 20 October 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6 | 5–11 | 3–11 | 2–11 | 1–14 |
| 10 October 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–2 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–6 |
| 2 October 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
1 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–6 | 0–9 |
| 22 September 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5 | 1–9 | 1–12 | 0–12 | 0–12 |
| 12 September 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 1–8 | 0–8 | 0–8 | 0–9 |
| 21 July 2017 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
8 | 6–12 | 4–13 | 3–16 | 2–19 |
| 11 July 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 2–7 | 1–7 | 0–8 | 0–10 |
| 5 July 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5 | 3–8 | 2–10 | 1–12 | 1–16 |
| 10 June 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 2–7 | 1–8 | 1–8 | 0–9 |
| 25 May 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
7 | 4–9 | 2–10 | 1–14 | 1–16 |
| 13 May 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| 28 April 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6 | 2–8 | 2–11 | 1–12 | 0–14 |
| 11 April 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 1–6 | 1–7 | 0–8 | 0–9 |
| 24 March 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 3–7 | 1–9 | 1–9 | 1–16 |
| 8 March 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
8 | 5–10 | 3–12 | 2–13 | 1–17 |
| 28 February 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
1 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–6 |
| 23 February 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| 16 February 2017 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
7 | 4–10 | 3–11 | 3–11 | 2–12 |
| 8 February 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
9 | 6–9 | 1–9 | 1–10 | 1–12 |
| 26 January 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2 | 0–8 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–9 |
| 21 January 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–5 |
| 13 December 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 1–8 | 1–8 | 0–8 | 0–10 |
| 6 December 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
6 | 1–8 | 1–10 | 1–10 | 1–14 |
| 25 November 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2 | 1–5 | 1–6 | 1–7 | 0–9 |
| 9 November 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 27 October 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
7 | 3–8 | 2–10 | 1–11 | 0–15 |
| 20 October 2016 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
13 | 7–17 | 7–17 | 6–18 | 5–20 |
| 12 October 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 2–6 | 1–6 | 1–8 | 0–10 |
| 4 October 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
5 | 2–9 | 1–10 | 1–10 | 0–12 |
| 22 September 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
7 | 6–12 | 4–13 | 4–16 | 3–18 |
| 14 September 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
11 | 7–15 | 4–17 | 3–20 | 2–20 |
| 27 July 2016 | Red C Paddy Power |
1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–5 |
| 13 July 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6 | 3–10 | 3–11 | 1–11 | 1–14 |
| 13 July 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
7 | 2–10 | 1–11 | 1–12 | 1–15 |
| 7 July 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
2 | 2–6 | 1–7 | 1–8 | 0–9 |
| 29 June 2016 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
9 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 5–13 | 3–17 |
| 15 June 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 1–6 | 1–8 | 0–8 | 0–10 |
| 26 May 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6 | 3–8 | 3–9 | 2–10 | 1–15 |
| 11 May 2016 | Red C Paddy Power |
5 | 1–8 | 1–8 | 1–11 | 0–13 |
| 11 May 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
7 | 2–9 | 1–9 | 0–10 | 0–15 |
| 13 April 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–7 |
| 10 March 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Labour Party.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | |
| 1 | 10% | 92% | |
| 2 | 11% | 81% | |
| 3 | 5% | 70% | |
| 4 | 14% | 65% | |
| 5 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 6 | 9% | 38% | |
| 7 | 6% | 29% | Last Result |
| 8 | 5% | 23% | |
| 9 | 4% | 19% | |
| 10 | 3% | 15% | |
| 11 | 2% | 12% | |
| 12 | 2% | 10% | |
| 13 | 2% | 7% | |
| 14 | 2% | 5% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 16 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |