Fianna Fáil
Voting Intentions
Last result: 24.3% (General Election of 26 February 2016)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 24.2% | 21.5–31.9% | 21.0–33.1% | 20.5–33.9% | 19.6–35.2% |
| 27 January–2 February 2020 | Survation Sinn Féin |
22.0% | 20.4–23.7% | 20.0–24.1% | 19.6–24.6% | 18.9–25.4% |
| 30 January–1 February 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
23.0% | 21.5–24.6% | 21.1–25.1% | 20.7–25.5% | 20.0–26.3% |
| 25–30 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
24.5% | 22.8–26.3% | 22.3–26.8% | 21.9–27.3% | 21.1–28.2% |
| 24–30 January 2020 | Panelbase The Times |
23.0% | 21.4–24.8% | 20.9–25.3% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.7–26.6% |
| 1–25 January 2020 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
27.0% | 25.2–28.9% | 24.7–29.4% | 24.2–29.9% | 23.4–30.8% |
| 16–23 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
26.0% | 24.3–27.8% | 23.8–28.4% | 23.4–28.8% | 22.6–29.7% |
| 16–18 January 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
25.0% | 23.4–26.7% | 23.0–27.1% | 22.6–27.5% | 21.9–28.3% |
| 4–14 January 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
32.3% | 30.3–34.3% | 29.8–34.8% | 29.3–35.3% | 28.4–36.3% |
| 24 December 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
25.0% | 23.6–26.4% | 23.2–26.8% | 22.9–27.2% | 22.3–27.9% |
| 5–17 December 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
27.0% | 25.2–29.0% | 24.7–29.5% | 24.3–30.0% | 23.4–30.9% |
| 14–21 November 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
24.0% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.9–26.3% | 21.4–26.7% | 20.7–27.6% |
| 1–12 November 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
24.9% | 23.2–26.8% | 22.7–27.3% | 22.2–27.8% | 21.4–28.7% |
| 17–24 October 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
24.0% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.9–26.3% | 21.4–26.7% | 20.7–27.6% |
| 3–15 October 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
28.0% | 26.1–30.0% | 25.6–30.5% | 25.2–31.0% | 24.3–32.0% |
| 11–13 October 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
25.2% | 23.7–26.9% | 23.2–27.4% | 22.9–27.8% | 22.1–28.6% |
| 5–17 September 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
29.2% | 27.1–31.0% | 26.6–31.6% | 26.1–32.1% | 25.2–33.0% |
| 5–12 September 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
27.9% | 26.1–29.8% | 25.6–30.3% | 25.2–30.8% | 24.4–31.7% |
| 4–16 July 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
30.8% | 28.7–32.7% | 28.2–33.2% | 27.7–33.7% | 26.8–34.7% |
| 31 May–11 June 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
28.5% | 26.5–30.3% | 25.9–30.9% | 25.5–31.4% | 24.6–32.3% |
| 24 May 2019 | Red C RTÉ |
23.2% | 22.0–24.1% | 21.7–24.4% | 21.4–24.6% | 20.9–25.1% |
| 1–22 May 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
25.0% | 23.6–26.4% | 23.2–26.8% | 22.9–27.2% | 22.3–27.9% |
| 6–16 May 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
24.2% | 22.8–25.3% | 22.5–25.6% | 22.2–25.9% | 21.6–26.5% |
| 2–14 May 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
28.0% | 26.1–29.9% | 25.6–30.5% | 25.2–31.0% | 24.3–31.9% |
| 6–8 May 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
25.9% | 24.4–27.3% | 24.0–27.7% | 23.6–28.1% | 23.0–28.8% |
| 11–17 April 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
22.9% | 21.3–24.7% | 20.8–25.2% | 20.4–25.6% | 19.6–26.5% |
| 4–16 April 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
29.3% | 27.4–31.2% | 26.9–31.8% | 26.4–32.3% | 25.6–33.2% |
| 21–28 March 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
24.9% | 23.2–26.7% | 22.7–27.2% | 22.3–27.7% | 21.5–28.6% |
| 28 February–12 March 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
25.4% | 23.6–27.3% | 23.1–27.8% | 22.7–28.3% | 21.9–29.2% |
| 4–5 March 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
24.0% | 22.5–25.6% | 22.0–26.1% | 21.7–26.5% | 20.9–27.3% |
| 14–20 February 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
23.9% | 22.2–25.7% | 21.8–26.2% | 21.4–26.6% | 20.6–27.5% |
| 31 January–12 February 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
25.9% | 23.9–27.6% | 23.4–28.2% | 23.0–28.7% | 22.1–29.6% |
| 17–24 January 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
22.2% | 20.6–24.0% | 20.1–24.4% | 19.7–24.9% | 19.0–25.7% |
| 4–15 January 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
26.0% | 24.2–28.0% | 23.7–28.5% | 23.3–29.0% | 22.4–29.9% |
| 14–21 December 2018 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
22.6% | 21.2–24.0% | 20.9–24.4% | 20.6–24.7% | 19.9–25.4% |
| 6–18 December 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
28.8% | 26.9–30.7% | 26.4–31.3% | 25.9–31.8% | 25.0–32.8% |
| 1–13 December 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
27.3% | 25.5–29.2% | 24.9–29.8% | 24.5–30.3% | 23.6–31.2% |
| 15–22 November 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
26.9% | 25.1–28.8% | 24.7–29.3% | 24.2–29.7% | 23.4–30.7% |
| 1–13 November 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
27.0% | 25.1–28.9% | 24.6–29.5% | 24.2–29.9% | 23.3–30.9% |
| 26 October 2018 | Red C RTÉ |
22.0% | 21.0–22.9% | 20.8–23.1% | 20.6–23.4% | 20.2–23.8% |
| 11–17 October 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
24.9% | 23.2–26.7% | 22.7–27.2% | 22.3–27.7% | 21.5–28.6% |
| 5–16 October 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
27.4% | 25.6–29.4% | 25.1–29.9% | 24.6–30.4% | 23.8–31.3% |
| 10–12 October 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
25.2% | 23.7–26.9% | 23.2–27.4% | 22.9–27.8% | 22.1–28.6% |
| 3–10 October 2018 | Red C Paddy Power |
26.9% | 25.1–28.8% | 24.7–29.3% | 24.2–29.7% | 23.4–30.7% |
| 6–18 September 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
24.9% | 23.2–26.8% | 22.6–27.3% | 22.2–27.8% | 21.4–28.7% |
| 6–13 September 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
22.4% | 20.6–24.0% | 20.1–24.4% | 19.7–24.9% | 19.0–25.7% |
| 15–24 August 2018 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
24.0% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.8–26.4% | 21.4–26.8% | 20.6–27.7% |
| 5–17 July 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
21.4% | 19.7–23.2% | 19.3–23.7% | 18.9–24.1% | 18.1–25.0% |
| 12 June 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
24.0% | 22.2–25.8% | 21.7–26.4% | 21.3–26.8% | 20.5–27.7% |
| 10–16 May 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
24.9% | 23.2–26.7% | 22.7–27.2% | 22.3–27.7% | 21.5–28.6% |
| 3–15 May 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
23.2% | 21.5–25.1% | 21.0–25.6% | 20.6–26.0% | 19.8–26.9% |
| 19–30 April 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
27.3% | 25.6–29.2% | 25.1–29.7% | 24.6–30.2% | 23.8–31.1% |
| 26 April 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
25.5% | 23.6–27.1% | 23.1–27.6% | 22.7–28.1% | 21.9–29.0% |
| 16–17 April 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
26.0% | 24.4–27.7% | 24.0–28.2% | 23.6–28.6% | 22.8–29.4% |
| 5–17 April 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
24.6% | 22.7–26.3% | 22.2–26.9% | 21.8–27.3% | 21.0–28.3% |
| 15–22 March 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
24.3% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.9–26.3% | 21.4–26.7% | 20.7–27.6% |
| 6–13 March 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
26.4% | 24.6–28.4% | 24.1–28.9% | 23.7–29.4% | 22.8–30.4% |
| 15–22 February 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
29.2% | 27.2–30.9% | 26.7–31.4% | 26.3–31.9% | 25.4–32.8% |
| 6–14 February 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
26.4% | 24.6–28.3% | 24.1–28.8% | 23.7–29.3% | 22.9–30.2% |
| 1–13 February 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
25.1% | 23.3–26.9% | 22.8–27.5% | 22.4–28.0% | 21.5–28.9% |
| 15–25 January 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
26.0% | 24.2–27.8% | 23.7–28.3% | 23.3–28.7% | 22.5–29.6% |
| 22–23 January 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
25.0% | 23.4–26.7% | 23.0–27.1% | 22.6–27.5% | 21.9–28.3% |
| 4–16 January 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
26.0% | 24.2–27.9% | 23.7–28.4% | 23.2–28.9% | 22.4–29.9% |
| 24 December 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
26.0% | 24.2–27.9% | 23.7–28.4% | 23.2–28.9% | 22.4–29.8% |
| 22 December 2017 | Ireland Thinks Irish Daily Mail |
26.0% | 24.3–27.7% | 23.9–28.2% | 23.5–28.6% | 22.7–29.4% |
| 7 December 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
25.0% | 23.4–26.7% | 23.0–27.1% | 22.6–27.5% | 21.9–28.3% |
| 23 November 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
26.2% | 24.3–27.8% | 23.8–28.3% | 23.4–28.8% | 22.6–29.7% |
| 7 November 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
31.3% | 29.3–33.2% | 28.8–33.8% | 28.3–34.3% | 27.4–35.3% |
| 20 October 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
25.0% | 23.2–26.7% | 22.7–27.2% | 22.3–27.7% | 21.5–28.6% |
| 10 October 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
26.9% | 25.1–28.8% | 24.6–29.4% | 24.1–29.9% | 23.3–30.8% |
| 2 October 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
29.0% | 27.3–30.6% | 26.8–31.1% | 26.4–31.6% | 25.7–32.4% |
| 22 September 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
26.2% | 24.3–27.8% | 23.8–28.3% | 23.4–28.8% | 22.6–29.7% |
| 12 September 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
25.0% | 23.2–26.9% | 22.7–27.4% | 22.3–27.8% | 21.5–28.8% |
| 21 July 2017 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
28.7% | 26.8–30.6% | 26.3–31.1% | 25.9–31.6% | 25.0–32.6% |
| 11 July 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
29.9% | 28.0–31.9% | 27.5–32.4% | 27.0–32.9% | 26.2–33.9% |
| 5 July 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
24.5% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.9–26.3% | 21.4–26.7% | 20.7–27.6% |
| 10 June 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
28.9% | 26.9–30.6% | 26.4–31.1% | 26.0–31.6% | 25.1–32.5% |
| 25 May 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
21.2% | 19.4–22.7% | 19.0–23.2% | 18.6–23.7% | 17.9–24.5% |
| 13 May 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
27.2% | 25.2–28.9% | 24.7–29.4% | 24.2–29.9% | 23.4–30.8% |
| 28 April 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
28.2% | 26.2–29.9% | 25.7–30.4% | 25.3–30.8% | 24.5–31.8% |
| 11 April 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
27.7% | 25.8–29.6% | 25.3–30.1% | 24.9–30.6% | 24.0–31.5% |
| 24 March 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
25.9% | 24.2–27.7% | 23.7–28.3% | 23.3–28.7% | 22.5–29.6% |
| 8 March 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
28.2% | 26.3–30.1% | 25.8–30.7% | 25.4–31.1% | 24.5–32.1% |
| 28 February 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
29.0% | 27.4–30.7% | 26.9–31.2% | 26.5–31.6% | 25.7–32.5% |
| 23 February 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
26.2% | 24.3–27.8% | 23.8–28.3% | 23.4–28.8% | 22.6–29.7% |
| 16 February 2017 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
33.0% | 31.1–35.0% | 30.6–35.6% | 30.1–36.1% | 29.2–37.0% |
| 8 February 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
32.0% | 30.0–33.9% | 29.5–34.5% | 29.1–35.0% | 28.2–35.9% |
| 26 January 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
27.2% | 25.2–28.9% | 24.8–29.4% | 24.3–29.8% | 23.5–30.7% |
| 21 January 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
28.7% | 26.8–30.6% | 26.3–31.2% | 25.8–31.7% | 25.0–32.6% |
| 13 December 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
28.2% | 26.2–30.0% | 25.7–30.5% | 25.2–31.0% | 24.4–32.0% |
| 6 December 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
30.0% | 28.3–31.7% | 27.9–32.2% | 27.5–32.7% | 26.7–33.5% |
| 25 November 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
24.4% | 22.5–26.0% | 22.1–26.5% | 21.6–27.0% | 20.9–27.8% |
| 9 November 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
30.2% | 28.3–32.2% | 27.8–32.8% | 27.3–33.2% | 26.4–34.2% |
| 27 October 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
26.0% | 24.2–27.8% | 23.7–28.3% | 23.3–28.8% | 22.5–29.7% |
| 20 October 2016 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
27.0% | 25.2–28.9% | 24.7–29.4% | 24.2–29.9% | 23.4–30.8% |
| 12 October 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
30.5% | 28.4–32.3% | 27.9–32.9% | 27.4–33.4% | 26.5–34.4% |
| 4 October 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
26.2% | 24.7–27.9% | 24.2–28.4% | 23.8–28.8% | 23.1–29.6% |
| 22 September 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
27.0% | 25.2–28.8% | 24.7–29.3% | 24.3–29.8% | 23.5–30.7% |
| 14 September 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
28.2% | 26.4–30.2% | 25.8–30.7% | 25.4–31.2% | 24.5–32.2% |
| 27 July 2016 | Red C Paddy Power |
28.3% | 26.4–30.1% | 25.9–30.6% | 25.5–31.1% | 24.7–32.0% |
| 13 July 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
28.9% | 26.9–30.6% | 26.4–31.1% | 26.0–31.6% | 25.1–32.5% |
| 13 July 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
30.0% | 28.0–31.9% | 27.5–32.5% | 27.0–33.0% | 26.1–34.0% |
| 7 July 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
33.3% | 31.6–35.1% | 31.1–35.6% | 30.7–36.1% | 29.9–36.9% |
| 29 June 2016 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
26.0% | 24.3–27.8% | 23.8–28.4% | 23.4–28.8% | 22.6–29.7% |
| 15 June 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
26.5% | 24.5–28.2% | 24.0–28.8% | 23.5–29.2% | 22.7–30.2% |
| 26 May 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
26.2% | 24.5–28.0% | 24.0–28.6% | 23.6–29.0% | 22.8–29.9% |
| 11 May 2016 | Red C Paddy Power |
25.2% | 23.3–26.8% | 22.9–27.3% | 22.5–27.8% | 21.7–28.7% |
| 11 May 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
27.0% | 25.1–28.9% | 24.6–29.5% | 24.1–29.9% | 23.3–30.9% |
| 13 April 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
26.2% | 24.2–27.9% | 23.7–28.5% | 23.3–29.0% | 22.5–29.9% |
| 10 March 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
25.6% | 23.5–27.1% | 23.1–27.6% | 22.6–28.0% | 21.9–28.9% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Fianna Fáil.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.5–18.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 7% | 97% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 14% | 90% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 17% | 76% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 14% | 59% | Last Result, Median |
| 24.5–25.5% | 10% | 45% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 7% | 36% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 6% | 28% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 4% | 23% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 2% | 19% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 2% | 17% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 3% | 15% | |
| 31.5–32.5% | 4% | 11% | |
| 32.5–33.5% | 4% | 7% | |
| 33.5–34.5% | 2% | 3% | |
| 34.5–35.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 35.5–36.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 36.5–37.5% | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 37.5–38.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 44 seats (General Election of 26 February 2016)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 46 | 39–60 | 38–61 | 37–62 | 34–64 |
| 27 January–2 February 2020 | Survation Sinn Féin |
42 | 38–46 | 37–47 | 36–47 | 33–49 |
| 30 January–1 February 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
44 | 42–47 | 41–48 | 40–49 | 38–52 |
| 25–30 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
47 | 43–51 | 42–52 | 41–53 | 38–55 |
| 24–30 January 2020 | Panelbase The Times |
41 | 36–47 | 34–48 | 34–49 | 32–51 |
| 1–25 January 2020 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
50 | 46–55 | 45–56 | 44–57 | 41–58 |
| 16–23 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
50 | 45–54 | 44–55 | 42–55 | 39–57 |
| 16–18 January 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
49 | 44–52 | 43–54 | 41–54 | 37–55 |
| 4–14 January 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
60 | 59–63 | 58–63 | 57–65 | 56–66 |
| 24 December 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
44 | 39–48 | 37–51 | 36–53 | 34–54 |
| 5–17 December 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
51 | 46–55 | 45–56 | 44–56 | 41–58 |
| 14–21 November 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
47 | 41–52 | 40–53 | 39–53 | 37–54 |
| 1–12 November 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
47 | 41–51 | 40–53 | 37–54 | 35–55 |
| 17–24 October 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
48 | 43–52 | 41–54 | 40–54 | 38–55 |
| 3–15 October 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
53 | 49–57 | 47–57 | 46–58 | 44–59 |
| 11–13 October 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
48 | 44–50 | 42–51 | 41–52 | 39–54 |
| 5–17 September 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
57 | 53–59 | 52–59 | 50–60 | 49–61 |
| 5–12 September 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
53 | 51–56 | 49–57 | 49–59 | 47–59 |
| 4–16 July 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
58 | 56–60 | 54–60 | 53–60 | 52–61 |
| 31 May–11 June 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
57 | 53–59 | 53–59 | 51–60 | 47–61 |
| 24 May 2019 | Red C RTÉ |
41 | 35–45 | 35–45 | 35–47 | 34–48 |
| 1–22 May 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
50 | 50–51 | 50–51 | 50–53 | 43–57 |
| 6–16 May 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
50 | 43–50 | 42–51 | 42–52 | 41–53 |
| 2–14 May 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
53 | 50–58 | 48–58 | 47–59 | 46–59 |
| 6–8 May 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
45 | 44–48 | 44–51 | 42–51 | 41–54 |
| 11–17 April 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
40 | 37–44 | 34–45 | 34–46 | 31–49 |
| 4–16 April 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
55 | 53–58 | 51–59 | 51–60 | 47–61 |
| 21–28 March 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
47 | 42–51 | 41–53 | 40–55 | 39–55 |
| 28 February–12 March 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
47 | 41–50 | 41–51 | 40–52 | 39–56 |
| 4–5 March 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
42 | 38–48 | 37–48 | 37–49 | 36–51 |
| 14–20 February 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
39 | 38–46 | 38–49 | 38–49 | 37–50 |
| 31 January–12 February 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
46 | 41–51 | 38–53 | 37–54 | 35–57 |
| 17–24 January 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
42 | 39–46 | 38–46 | 37–47 | 35–50 |
| 4–15 January 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
47 | 42–52 | 41–54 | 40–55 | 38–57 |
| 14–21 December 2018 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
39 | 36–44 | 35–44 | 34–44 | 34–47 |
| 6–18 December 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
55 | 49–56 | 48–57 | 47–58 | 45–60 |
| 1–13 December 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
51 | 50–53 | 50–54 | 46–55 | 43–58 |
| 15–22 November 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
52 | 47–55 | 45–55 | 44–56 | 42–58 |
| 1–13 November 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
49 | 44–52 | 43–53 | 42–54 | 41–56 |
| 26 October 2018 | Red C RTÉ |
41 | 38–42 | 38–42 | 38–43 | 37–43 |
| 11–17 October 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
46 | 41–51 | 40–51 | 38–52 | 36–54 |
| 5–16 October 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
49 | 47–54 | 47–54 | 46–55 | 42–57 |
| 10–12 October 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
45 | 44–47 | 44–49 | 42–51 | 41–52 |
| 3–10 October 2018 | Red C Paddy Power |
51 | 44–54 | 43–55 | 43–56 | 42–58 |
| 6–18 September 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
44 | 42–50 | 41–52 | 40–54 | 39–55 |
| 6–13 September 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
40 | 38–44 | 37–45 | 36–46 | 35–49 |
| 15–24 August 2018 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
42 | 39–46 | 37–47 | 36–47 | 35–48 |
| 5–17 July 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
40 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 36–45 | 35–47 |
| 12 June 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
45 | 40–49 | 39–50 | 38–52 | 36–53 |
| 10–16 May 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
46 | 42–49 | 41–51 | 40–52 | 38–53 |
| 3–15 May 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
41 | 38–46 | 38–48 | 37–49 | 36–51 |
| 19–30 April 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
50 | 45–52 | 44–53 | 43–54 | 43–55 |
| 26 April 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
47 | 41–53 | 40–53 | 39–54 | 38–56 |
| 16–17 April 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
50 | 44–53 | 42–53 | 41–53 | 41–54 |
| 5–17 April 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
43 | 39–47 | 38–48 | 37–49 | 35–51 |
| 15–22 March 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
42 | 40–46 | 39–47 | 39–48 | 38–51 |
| 6–13 March 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
49 | 45–52 | 44–53 | 42–54 | 40–56 |
| 15–22 February 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
52 | 49–57 | 49–59 | 49–59 | 48–59 |
| 6–14 February 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
48 | 46–52 | 45–53 | 44–53 | 41–55 |
| 1–13 February 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
46 | 45–51 | 43–52 | 42–52 | 40–54 |
| 15–25 January 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
47 | 44–52 | 42–53 | 42–54 | 41–56 |
| 22–23 January 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
45 | 41–49 | 40–50 | 39–51 | 38–53 |
| 4–16 January 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
48 | 44–52 | 43–52 | 42–54 | 41–56 |
| 24 December 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
47 | 44–53 | 43–53 | 42–54 | 41–55 |
| 22 December 2017 | Ireland Thinks Irish Daily Mail |
45 | 43–49 | 42–50 | 42–51 | 40–53 |
| 7 December 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
47 | 42–51 | 40–51 | 39–52 | 38–52 |
| 23 November 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
51 | 47–55 | 46–56 | 45–57 | 43–58 |
| 7 November 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
56 | 55–57 | 54–59 | 54–59 | 53–60 |
| 20 October 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
45 | 45–49 | 44–52 | 42–53 | 39–54 |
| 10 October 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
50 | 45–54 | 43–55 | 42–57 | 41–59 |
| 2 October 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
54 | 50–56 | 49–58 | 48–58 | 46–60 |
| 22 September 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
47 | 44–51 | 42–52 | 40–53 | 38–57 |
| 12 September 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
45 | 42–52 | 41–52 | 41–53 | 40–55 |
| 21 July 2017 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
52 | 50–56 | 48–57 | 47–57 | 43–59 |
| 11 July 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
55 | 53–57 | 53–60 | 52–62 | 51–62 |
| 5 July 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
47 | 41–50 | 40–51 | 39–53 | 37–55 |
| 10 June 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
55 | 51–58 | 50–60 | 50–60 | 47–61 |
| 25 May 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
38 | 37–39 | 35–43 | 35–45 | 34–46 |
| 13 May 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
50 | 48–55 | 46–55 | 45–55 | 42–58 |
| 28 April 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
55 | 52–59 | 50–59 | 50–59 | 46–60 |
| 11 April 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
53 | 50–57 | 48–58 | 47–60 | 44–60 |
| 24 March 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
51 | 49–54 | 49–56 | 49–56 | 46–59 |
| 8 March 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
58 | 53–59 | 52–60 | 51–60 | 48–61 |
| 28 February 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
56 | 52–58 | 52–59 | 51–59 | 49–59 |
| 23 February 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
49 | 46–54 | 44–54 | 43–56 | 41–59 |
| 16 February 2017 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
59 | 58–62 | 58–63 | 57–63 | 55–63 |
| 8 February 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
59 | 59–61 | 59–62 | 59–62 | 56–63 |
| 26 January 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
54 | 52–56 | 50–57 | 48–58 | 46–59 |
| 21 January 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
52 | 52–54 | 49–57 | 48–57 | 48–60 |
| 13 December 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
56 | 52–59 | 51–59 | 49–60 | 48–60 |
| 6 December 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
55 | 52–59 | 51–59 | 51–60 | 49–61 |
| 25 November 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
48 | 44–53 | 43–54 | 40–56 | 38–57 |
| 9 November 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
59 | 55–60 | 55–61 | 54–61 | 51–62 |
| 27 October 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
53 | 49–54 | 47–55 | 45–57 | 45–57 |
| 20 October 2016 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
51 | 46–54 | 45–55 | 41–56 | 40–57 |
| 12 October 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
60 | 57–61 | 57–61 | 55–62 | 54–63 |
| 4 October 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
47 | 43–52 | 41–53 | 40–53 | 36–55 |
| 22 September 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
54 | 47–54 | 47–56 | 47–57 | 44–58 |
| 14 September 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
54 | 51–57 | 50–60 | 49–61 | 47–62 |
| 27 July 2016 | Red C Paddy Power |
57 | 52–59 | 51–60 | 50–60 | 48–60 |
| 13 July 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
58 | 54–59 | 54–60 | 54–60 | 51–61 |
| 13 July 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
58 | 55–61 | 54–61 | 54–61 | 50–62 |
| 7 July 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
62 | 60–63 | 59–63 | 58–63 | 57–63 |
| 29 June 2016 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
47 | 45–51 | 41–51 | 41–52 | 39–53 |
| 15 June 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
51 | 49–59 | 48–60 | 47–60 | 45–60 |
| 26 May 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
53 | 49–56 | 47–57 | 46–57 | 43–58 |
| 11 May 2016 | Red C Paddy Power |
48 | 41–50 | 39–51 | 37–53 | 36–55 |
| 11 May 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
52 | 50–56 | 47–57 | 45–58 | 44–59 |
| 13 April 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
55 | 50–58 | 49–59 | 48–59 | 46–61 |
| 10 March 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
51 | 47–56 | 46–57 | 44–58 | 41–59 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Fianna Fáil.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 37 | 2% | 98% | |
| 38 | 2% | 96% | |
| 39 | 4% | 94% | |
| 40 | 4% | 90% | |
| 41 | 6% | 86% | |
| 42 | 7% | 80% | |
| 43 | 8% | 73% | |
| 44 | 6% | 66% | Last Result |
| 45 | 7% | 60% | |
| 46 | 7% | 52% | Median |
| 47 | 6% | 45% | |
| 48 | 5% | 39% | |
| 49 | 4% | 34% | |
| 50 | 4% | 30% | |
| 51 | 3% | 26% | |
| 52 | 2% | 23% | |
| 53 | 1.2% | 22% | |
| 54 | 2% | 20% | |
| 55 | 0.8% | 19% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 18% | |
| 57 | 0.8% | 17% | |
| 58 | 1.0% | 17% | |
| 59 | 3% | 16% | |
| 60 | 6% | 13% | |
| 61 | 3% | 7% | |
| 62 | 2% | 4% | |
| 63 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |