Fine Gael

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 25.5% (General Election of 26 February 2016)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 20.1% 17.2–22.6% 16.4–23.2% 15.9–23.8% 15.0–24.8%
27 January–2 February 2020 Survation
Sinn Féin		 17.0% 15.6–18.6% 15.2–19.0% 14.9–19.4% 14.3–20.2%
30 January–1 February 2020 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 20.0% 18.6–21.6% 18.2–22.0% 17.8–22.4% 17.2–23.1%
25–30 January 2020 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 21.4% 19.8–23.1% 19.4–23.6% 19.0–24.1% 18.2–24.9%
24–30 January 2020 Panelbase
The Times		 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
1–25 January 2020 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail		 22.0% 20.3–23.8% 19.8–24.3% 19.4–24.7% 18.7–25.6%
16–23 January 2020 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
16–18 January 2020 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 23.0% 21.5–24.6% 21.1–25.1% 20.7–25.5% 20.0–26.3%
4–14 January 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 20.1% 18.5–21.9% 18.1–22.4% 17.7–22.8% 16.9–23.7%
24 December 2019 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail		 28.0% 26.6–29.5% 26.2–29.9% 25.8–30.3% 25.2–31.0%
5–17 December 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 27.0% 25.2–29.0% 24.7–29.5% 24.3–30.0% 23.4–30.9%
14–21 November 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 30.0% 28.2–31.9% 27.7–32.4% 27.2–32.9% 26.4–33.9%
1–12 November 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 27.0% 25.2–28.9% 24.6–29.5% 24.2–29.9% 23.4–30.9%
17–24 October 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 32.0% 30.1–33.9% 29.6–34.5% 29.2–35.0% 28.3–35.9%
3–15 October 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 29.0% 27.1–31.0% 26.6–31.6% 26.1–32.1% 25.2–33.0%
11–13 October 2019 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 29.3% 27.7–31.1% 27.2–31.6% 26.8–32.0% 26.0–32.8%
5–17 September 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 26.2% 24.2–27.9% 23.7–28.5% 23.2–29.0% 22.4–29.9%
5–12 September 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 28.9% 27.1–30.8% 26.6–31.3% 26.2–31.8% 25.3–32.7%
4–16 July 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 26.7% 24.7–28.5% 24.2–29.1% 23.8–29.5% 22.9–30.5%
31 May–11 June 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 23.4% 21.5–25.1% 21.0–25.6% 20.6–26.1% 19.8–27.0%
24 May 2019 Red C
RTÉ		 26.2% 24.9–27.1% 24.6–27.4% 24.4–27.7% 23.8–28.2%
1–22 May 2019 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail		 28.0% 26.6–29.5% 26.2–29.9% 25.8–30.3% 25.2–31.0%
6–16 May 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 28.2% 26.7–29.3% 26.4–29.7% 26.1–30.0% 25.5–30.7%
2–14 May 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 28.0% 26.1–29.9% 25.6–30.5% 25.2–31.0% 24.3–31.9%
6–8 May 2019 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 28.9% 27.3–30.3% 26.9–30.8% 26.6–31.2% 25.9–31.9%
11–17 April 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 32.9% 31.0–34.9% 30.5–35.4% 30.1–35.9% 29.2–36.8%
4–16 April 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 28.2% 26.4–30.1% 25.8–30.7% 25.4–31.2% 24.5–32.1%
21–28 March 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 30.9% 29.1–32.8% 28.5–33.4% 28.1–33.8% 27.3–34.8%
28 February–12 March 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 31.5% 29.6–33.5% 29.1–34.1% 28.6–34.6% 27.7–35.5%
4–5 March 2019 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 30.0% 28.3–31.7% 27.9–32.2% 27.5–32.7% 26.7–33.5%
14–20 February 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 30.9% 29.1–32.8% 28.5–33.4% 28.1–33.8% 27.3–34.8%
31 January–12 February 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 29.9% 27.8–31.7% 27.3–32.2% 26.8–32.7% 25.9–33.7%
17–24 January 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 32.3% 30.3–34.1% 29.8–34.7% 29.4–35.2% 28.5–36.1%
4–15 January 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 30.0% 28.1–32.0% 27.6–32.6% 27.1–33.1% 26.2–34.0%
14–21 December 2018 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail		 31.4% 29.9–32.9% 29.5–33.3% 29.1–33.7% 28.4–34.5%
6–18 December 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 30.7% 28.8–32.8% 28.3–33.3% 27.8–33.8% 26.9–34.8%
1–13 December 2018 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 32.3% 30.3–34.3% 29.8–34.9% 29.3–35.4% 28.4–36.4%
15–22 November 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 33.8% 31.9–35.8% 31.4–36.3% 30.9–36.8% 30.0–37.7%
1–13 November 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 30.1% 28.2–32.1% 27.6–32.6% 27.1–33.1% 26.3–34.1%
26 October 2018 Red C
RTÉ		 35.0% 33.9–36.0% 33.6–36.3% 33.3–36.5% 32.9–37.0%
11–17 October 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 32.9% 31.0–34.9% 30.5–35.4% 30.1–35.9% 29.2–36.8%
5–16 October 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 31.5% 29.6–33.5% 29.1–34.1% 28.6–34.6% 27.7–35.5%
10–12 October 2018 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 33.3% 31.6–35.1% 31.1–35.6% 30.7–36.1% 29.9–36.9%
3–10 October 2018 Red C
Paddy Power		 31.9% 30.1–33.8% 29.5–34.4% 29.1–34.9% 28.2–35.8%
6–18 September 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 31.8% 29.9–33.8% 29.4–34.4% 28.9–34.9% 28.0–35.8%
6–13 September 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 33.5% 31.4–35.3% 30.9–35.8% 30.4–36.3% 29.6–37.2%
15–24 August 2018 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail		 29.0% 27.1–30.9% 26.6–31.5% 26.2–32.0% 25.3–32.9%
5–17 July 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 34.6% 32.6–36.6% 32.1–37.2% 31.6–37.7% 30.7–38.7%
12 June 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 31.0% 29.0–32.9% 28.5–33.5% 28.0–34.0% 27.1–34.9%
10–16 May 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 33.9% 32.0–35.9% 31.5–36.4% 31.0–36.9% 30.1–37.8%
3–15 May 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 30.3% 28.4–32.3% 27.9–32.8% 27.4–33.3% 26.5–34.3%
19–30 April 2018 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 34.3% 32.4–36.3% 31.9–36.8% 31.4–37.3% 30.5–38.2%
26 April 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 32.5% 30.4–34.2% 29.9–34.8% 29.5–35.3% 28.6–36.2%
16–17 April 2018 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 31.0% 29.3–32.8% 28.9–33.3% 28.4–33.7% 27.6–34.5%
5–17 April 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 32.5% 30.4–34.3% 29.9–34.9% 29.4–35.4% 28.5–36.4%
15–22 March 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 33.5% 31.1–34.9% 30.6–35.5% 30.1–36.0% 29.3–36.9%
6–13 March 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 31.3% 29.4–33.4% 28.9–33.9% 28.4–34.4% 27.5–35.4%
15–22 February 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 32.2% 30.1–33.9% 29.6–34.5% 29.2–35.0% 28.3–35.9%
6–14 February 2018 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 33.9% 32.0–35.9% 31.5–36.5% 31.0–37.0% 30.1–37.9%
1–13 February 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 36.0% 34.0–38.0% 33.4–38.6% 32.9–39.1% 32.0–40.1%
15–25 January 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 32.0% 30.1–33.8% 29.5–34.4% 29.1–34.9% 28.2–35.8%
22–23 January 2018 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 34.0% 32.3–35.8% 31.8–36.3% 31.4–36.7% 30.6–37.6%
4–16 January 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 32.0% 30.0–34.0% 29.5–34.6% 29.0–35.1% 28.1–36.0%
24 December 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 34.0% 32.0–36.0% 31.4–36.6% 31.0–37.1% 30.0–38.1%
22 December 2017 Ireland Thinks
Irish Daily Mail		 33.0% 31.3–34.9% 30.8–35.4% 30.4–35.8% 29.5–36.7%
7 December 2017 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times		 36.0% 34.2–37.8% 33.8–38.3% 33.3–38.8% 32.5–39.6%
23 November 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 27.2% 25.2–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.3–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
7 November 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 34.3% 32.3–36.3% 31.7–36.9% 31.3–37.4% 30.3–38.4%
20 October 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 28.9% 27.1–30.8% 26.6–31.3% 26.2–31.8% 25.3–32.7%
10 October 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 31.0% 29.0–32.9% 28.5–33.5% 28.0–34.0% 27.1–35.0%
2 October 2017 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times		 31.0% 29.2–32.7% 28.8–33.2% 28.4–33.6% 27.6–34.4%
22 September 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 30.2% 28.2–31.9% 27.7–32.4% 27.2–32.9% 26.4–33.8%
12 September 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 32.9% 30.9–34.9% 30.4–35.5% 29.9–36.0% 29.0–36.9%
21 July 2017 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 29.7% 27.9–31.7% 27.3–32.2% 26.9–32.7% 26.0–33.6%
11 July 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 29.0% 27.1–30.9% 26.5–31.5% 26.1–31.9% 25.2–32.9%
5 July 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 27.6% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.3–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
10 June 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 28.9% 26.9–30.6% 26.4–31.1% 26.0–31.6% 25.1–32.5%
25 May 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 29.2% 27.2–30.9% 26.7–31.4% 26.3–31.9% 25.4–32.8%
13 May 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 28.2% 26.2–30.0% 25.7–30.5% 25.3–31.0% 24.4–31.9%
28 April 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 24.2% 22.3–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.5–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
11 April 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 28.6% 26.8–30.6% 26.2–31.1% 25.8–31.6% 24.9–32.5%
24 March 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 24.0% 22.2–25.7% 21.8–26.2% 21.4–26.6% 20.6–27.5%
8 March 2017 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 22.2% 20.5–24.0% 20.0–24.5% 19.6–25.0% 18.8–25.8%
28 February 2017 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times		 28.0% 26.4–29.7% 25.9–30.2% 25.5–30.6% 24.8–31.4%
23 February 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 24.2% 22.3–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.5–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
16 February 2017 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 25.0% 23.3–26.9% 22.8–27.4% 22.4–27.8% 21.6–28.7%
8 February 2017 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 21.0% 19.3–22.7% 18.9–23.2% 18.5–23.6% 17.7–24.5%
26 January 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 24.2% 22.3–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.5–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
21 January 2017 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 22.7% 21.0–24.5% 20.5–25.1% 20.1–25.5% 19.3–26.4%
13 December 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 26.1% 24.2–27.9% 23.7–28.4% 23.2–28.9% 22.4–29.8%
6 December 2016 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times		 27.0% 25.4–28.7% 25.0–29.2% 24.6–29.6% 23.8–30.4%
25 November 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 25.5% 23.6–27.1% 23.1–27.6% 22.7–28.1% 21.9–29.0%
9 November 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 28.2% 26.3–30.1% 25.8–30.7% 25.3–31.1% 24.5–32.1%
27 October 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 25.0% 23.3–26.8% 22.8–27.3% 22.4–27.7% 21.6–28.6%
20 October 2016 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 29.0% 27.1–30.9% 26.6–31.5% 26.2–32.0% 25.3–32.9%
12 October 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 26.5% 24.5–28.2% 24.0–28.8% 23.5–29.2% 22.7–30.2%
4 October 2016 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times		 26.2% 24.7–27.9% 24.2–28.4% 23.8–28.8% 23.1–29.6%
22 September 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 25.0% 23.3–26.8% 22.8–27.3% 22.4–27.7% 21.6–28.6%
14 September 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 23.2% 21.4–25.0% 20.9–25.6% 20.5–26.0% 19.7–26.9%
27 July 2016 Red C
Paddy Power		 27.3% 25.5–29.1% 25.0–29.6% 24.5–30.1% 23.7–31.0%
13 July 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 25.9% 24.0–27.5% 23.5–28.0% 23.1–28.5% 22.3–29.4%
13 July 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 25.0% 23.2–26.9% 22.7–27.4% 22.3–27.9% 21.4–28.8%
7 July 2016 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times		 24.2% 22.7–25.9% 22.3–26.4% 21.9–26.8% 21.2–27.6%
29 June 2016 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 30.0% 28.2–31.9% 27.7–32.4% 27.2–32.9% 26.4–33.9%
15 June 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 25.5% 23.5–27.2% 23.0–27.8% 22.6–28.2% 21.7–29.2%
26 May 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 26.2% 24.5–28.0% 24.0–28.6% 23.6–29.0% 22.8–29.9%
11 May 2016 Red C
Paddy Power		 27.2% 25.3–28.8% 24.8–29.4% 24.4–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
11 May 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 26.0% 24.1–27.9% 23.6–28.4% 23.2–28.9% 22.3–29.9%
13 April 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 23.2% 21.3–24.8% 20.8–25.4% 20.4–25.8% 19.6–26.7%
10 March 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 27.6% 25.5–29.1% 25.0–29.6% 24.6–30.1% 23.7–31.0%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Fine Gael.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12.5–13.5% 0% 100%  
13.5–14.5% 0.2% 100%  
14.5–15.5% 1.3% 99.8%  
15.5–16.5% 4% 98.6%  
16.5–17.5% 8% 94%  
17.5–18.5% 11% 87%  
18.5–19.5% 16% 76%  
19.5–20.5% 19% 60% Median
20.5–21.5% 18% 41%  
21.5–22.5% 13% 23%  
22.5–23.5% 7% 10%  
23.5–24.5% 3% 3%  
24.5–25.5% 0.6% 0.7%  
25.5–26.5% 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
26.5–27.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 49 seats (General Election of 26 February 2016)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 36 27–41 25–43 24–44 23–47
27 January–2 February 2020 Survation
Sinn Féin		 27 24–31 23–33 23–34 20–36
30 January–1 February 2020 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 38 35–40 34–41 32–41 27–43
25–30 January 2020 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 40 35–43 34–43 33–45 31–48
24–30 January 2020 Panelbase
The Times		 31 28–35 26–36 25–37 24–39
1–25 January 2020 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail		 37 30–43 29–45 27–46 26–49
16–23 January 2020 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 41 37–44 36–45 35–47 33–50
16–18 January 2020 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 42 38–45 38–47 37–48 34–50
4–14 January 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 38 35–42 34–44 33–44 29–46
24 December 2019 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail		 53 47–58 46–60 44–60 42–61
5–17 December 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 52 48–58 48–59 47–60 45–62
14–21 November 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 65 57–68 55–69 54–70 51–71
1–12 November 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 54 45–58 44–60 44–61 42–61
17–24 October 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 65 61–70 58–71 58–72 56–73
3–15 October 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 59 53–62 51–63 50–63 46–65
11–13 October 2019 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 56 51–59 49–61 47–63 47–64
5–17 September 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 51 47–56 47–59 46–59 44–61
5–12 September 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 57 52–63 51–65 50–66 47–67
4–16 July 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 53 48–58 48–60 47–60 46–62
31 May–11 June 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 46 41–50 40–51 38–54 36–56
24 May 2019 Red C
RTÉ		 50 47–54 45–54 43–54 41–56
1–22 May 2019 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail		 56 56–57 53–59 52–59 50–62
6–16 May 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 54 51–58 50–60 50–61 48–63
2–14 May 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 57 51–61 50–62 49–63 47–65
6–8 May 2019 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 55 52–56 51–56 50–60 47–64
11–17 April 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 64 61–68 60–69 58–70 57–71
4–16 April 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 56 52–60 52–61 50–61 48–64
21–28 March 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 64 58–68 56–70 55–71 53–71
28 February–12 March 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 66 59–67 59–68 56–68 51–69
4–5 March 2019 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 60 54–64 53–65 52–66 49–66
14–20 February 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 63 54–64 52–66 52–67 52–68
31 January–12 February 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 60 51–63 48–64 48–64 45–66
17–24 January 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 67 63–70 62–71 62–71 57–71
4–15 January 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 61 55–66 52–67 51–67 47–68
14–21 December 2018 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail		 62 59–64 57–66 55–67 53–68
6–18 December 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 59 57–63 55–65 55–67 52–68
1–13 December 2018 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 61 58–63 58–63 57–66 56–67
15–22 November 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 69 64–71 63–72 63–72 59–74
1–13 November 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 56 53–61 52–64 51–65 48–66
26 October 2018 Red C
RTÉ		 69 68–70 67–71 66–71 65–71
11–17 October 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 65 61–69 59–70 58–70 56–72
5–16 October 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 60 54–63 54–65 54–67 54–67
10–12 October 2018 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 65 61–67 60–67 59–68 57–69
3–10 October 2018 Red C
Paddy Power		 65 60–68 60–70 58–70 55–71
6–18 September 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 66 61–68 59–68 57–69 54–69
6–13 September 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 70 65–71 64–71 63–71 59–72
15–24 August 2018 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail		 55 51–59 50–59 49–61 45–63
5–17 July 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 68 65–70 65–71 64–71 63–71
12 June 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 64 59–68 58–69 57–69 54–70
10–16 May 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 65 62–68 61–70 60–71 58–71
3–15 May 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 62 56–65 55–66 54–67 52–68
19–30 April 2018 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 63 60–66 58–68 57–68 55–69
26 April 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 65 60–70 58–70 55–71 52–71
16–17 April 2018 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 59 57–65 54–66 54–67 53–67
5–17 April 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 63 59–65 58–66 56–66 53–68
15–22 March 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 66 61–68 60–69 60–70 58–71
6–13 March 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 61 58–65 57–66 56–66 53–68
15–22 February 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 63 60–66 59–68 59–70 56–70
6–14 February 2018 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 66 63–67 61–68 61–69 60–70
1–13 February 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 67 66–70 66–70 65–71 62–72
15–25 January 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 65 60–68 59–69 57–70 55–70
22–23 January 2018 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 67 65–68 63–69 62–69 61–70
4–16 January 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 63 59–66 59–67 58–68 55–69
24 December 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 66 61–69 61–70 60–70 58–71
22 December 2017 Ireland Thinks
Irish Daily Mail		 63 60–67 59–68 59–68 57–69
7 December 2017 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times		 68 65–71 65–72 64–72 63–73
23 November 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 55 50–58 49–60 47–62 45–64
7 November 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 69 63–70 63–71 62–71 59–73
20 October 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 58 54–63 54–65 51–66 46–68
10 October 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 62 58–67 55–67 54–68 51–69
2 October 2017 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times		 60 55–64 54–66 53–66 51–66
22 September 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 60 56–64 54–65 51–65 48–66
12 September 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 66 61–68 61–69 60–69 58–69
21 July 2017 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 56 52–59 51–60 49–61 47–65
11 July 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 59 55–62 51–62 50–62 49–63
5 July 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 55 49–62 47–64 46–64 44–65
10 June 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 58 55–61 52–62 51–63 48–65
25 May 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 61 56–62 54–63 54–65 50–66
13 May 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 56 52–61 51–62 46–64 46–65
28 April 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 42 41–49 41–52 41–56 39–56
11 April 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 57 54–60 52–61 51–62 49–64
24 March 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 42 41–45 40–47 40–50 38–54
8 March 2017 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 45 41–47 40–50 39–51 36–52
28 February 2017 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times		 54 49–60 48–61 47–61 46–62
23 February 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 50 43–54 42–55 41–56 38–58
16 February 2017 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 48 44–52 42–53 42–54 40–56
8 February 2017 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 40 40–42 36–45 36–45 33–47
26 January 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 47 43–48 41–50 41–52 38–57
21 January 2017 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 40 40–44 39–45 38–45 37–48
13 December 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 52 45–58 44–59 43–59 43–61
6 December 2016 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times		 54 48–57 47–58 44–59 43–60
25 November 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 49 44–55 43–56 42–58 41–61
9 November 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 56 51–58 49–61 48–62 46–64
27 October 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 53 44–56 42–57 41–59 38–61
20 October 2016 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 51 47–58 46–59 46–61 44–62
12 October 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 51 48–57 45–57 44–57 44–58
4 October 2016 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times		 47 43–52 42–54 42–55 39–59
22 September 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 47 46–53 46–56 44–57 41–57
14 September 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 42 39–46 38–46 37–50 35–56
27 July 2016 Red C
Paddy Power		 55 50–59 49–61 48–62 46–64
13 July 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 51 47–55 46–59 46–60 43–61
13 July 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 47 43–51 40–53 40–55 40–58
7 July 2016 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times		 44 43–49 42–51 42–52 41–54
29 June 2016 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 58 51–59 51–63 51–66 47–66
15 June 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 50 44–57 43–58 42–59 41–61
26 May 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 51 47–56 45–57 44–58 42–61
11 May 2016 Red C
Paddy Power		 53 48–58 47–60 44–61 42–64
11 May 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 53 50–57 49–60 48–61 44–62
13 April 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 44 42–50 41–52 39–53 38–56
10 March 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 56 49–61 49–63 48–64 46–66

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Fine Gael.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.1% 99.8%  
23 0.9% 99.7%  
24 2% 98.8%  
25 2% 97%  
26 4% 95%  
27 3% 90%  
28 3% 87%  
29 3% 84%  
30 4% 81%  
31 5% 78%  
32 4% 72%  
33 5% 69%  
34 3% 64%  
35 6% 60%  
36 6% 54% Median
37 8% 49%  
38 14% 41%  
39 7% 27%  
40 7% 21%  
41 5% 14%  
42 3% 9%  
43 3% 6%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.7% 2%  
46 0.4% 0.9%  
47 0.2% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%