Independents 4 Change
Voting Intentions
Last result: 1.5% (General Election of 26 February 2016)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 1.4% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.7–2.3% | 0.6–2.6% |
| 27 January–2 February 2020 | Survation Sinn Féin |
1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.6–2.5% |
| 30 January–1 February 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
1.7% | 1.3–2.3% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% |
| 25–30 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.7% |
| 24–30 January 2020 | Panelbase The Times |
1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.6–2.5% |
| 1–25 January 2020 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
1.2% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.5–2.4% |
| 16–23 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.8–2.9% |
| 16–18 January 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
1.4% | 1.1–2.0% | 1.0–2.1% | 0.9–2.3% | 0.7–2.6% |
| 4–14 January 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.2% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.5–2.5% |
| 24 December 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
1.5% | 1.2–2.0% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% |
| 5–17 December 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.4–1.7% | 0.3–2.0% |
| 14–21 November 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.7–2.8% |
| 1–12 November 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.2% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.5–2.5% |
| 17–24 October 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.8–2.9% |
| 3–15 October 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.9% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.4% |
| 11–13 October 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
1.5% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.3% | 1.0–2.5% | 0.9–2.8% |
| 5–17 September 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.9% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.4% |
| 5–12 September 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.7% |
| 4–16 July 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.4–1.7% | 0.3–2.0% |
| 31 May–11 June 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 0.9–2.3% | 0.8–2.5% | 0.7–2.8% |
| 24 May 2019 | Red C RTÉ |
1.2% | 0.9–1.5% | 0.9–1.6% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% |
| 1–22 May 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
-0.1% | 0.0–0.2% | 0.0–0.2% | 0.0–0.2% | 0.0–0.3% |
| 6–16 May 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.7% | 1.4–2.1% | 1.3–2.3% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.6% |
| 2–14 May 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 6–8 May 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
1.9% | 1.5–2.4% | 1.4–2.6% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.1–3.0% |
| 11–17 April 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.8% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.2–2.7% | 1.1–2.8% | 1.0–3.2% |
| 4–16 April 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.1% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| 21–28 March 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.8–2.9% |
| 28 February–12 March 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.7–2.2% | 0.6–2.6% |
| 4–5 March 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
1.4% | 1.1–2.0% | 1.0–2.1% | 0.9–2.3% | 0.7–2.6% |
| 14–20 February 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.8–2.9% |
| 31 January–12 February 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.4% | 1.0–2.1% | 0.9–2.3% | 0.8–2.4% | 0.7–2.8% |
| 17–24 January 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.7–2.8% |
| 4–15 January 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.4% | 1.0–2.1% | 0.9–2.3% | 0.8–2.4% | 0.7–2.8% |
| 14–21 December 2018 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
1.4% | 1.1–1.8% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.3% |
| 6–18 December 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.9% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| 1–13 December 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
| 15–22 November 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| 1–13 November 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| 26 October 2018 | Red C RTÉ |
1.2% | 1.0–1.5% | 0.9–1.5% | 0.9–1.6% | 0.8–1.7% |
| 11–17 October 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.6–2.5% |
| 5–16 October 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 10–12 October 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.6% |
| 3–10 October 2018 | Red C Paddy Power |
1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.7% |
| 6–18 September 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.4–1.7% | 0.3–2.0% |
| 6–13 September 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.7% |
| 15–24 August 2018 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
1.8% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.2–2.7% | 1.1–2.9% | 0.9–3.2% |
| 5–17 July 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.1% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| 12 June 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 10–16 May 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 3–15 May 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.1% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| 19–30 April 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| 26 April 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.7% |
| 16–17 April 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.4–1.9% |
| 5–17 April 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.1% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| 15–22 March 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.6–2.5% |
| 6–13 March 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| 15–22 February 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| 6–14 February 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.9% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| 1–13 February 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 15–25 January 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 22–23 January 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
1.2% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.2% |
| 4–16 January 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| 24 December 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.4–1.7% | 0.3–2.0% |
| 22 December 2017 | Ireland Thinks Irish Daily Mail |
1.3% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.7–2.5% |
| 7 December 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.1% |
| 23 November 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| 7 November 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.4–1.7% | 0.3–2.0% |
| 20 October 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.6–2.5% |
| 10 October 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.7–2.3% | 0.6–2.6% |
| 2 October 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.4–1.9% |
| 22 September 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| 12 September 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.1% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| 21 July 2017 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.8% |
| 11 July 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.2% |
| 5 July 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–2.0% |
| 10 June 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 25 May 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.8–2.9% |
| 13 May 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.7–2.8% |
| 28 April 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| 11 April 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.1% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| 24 March 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.7% |
| 8 March 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 28 February 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.4–1.9% |
| 23 February 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| 16 February 2017 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
0.4% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.1–1.3% |
| 8 February 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.6–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| 26 January 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.7–2.8% |
| 21 January 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.6% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.5% | 1.0–2.7% | 0.8–3.0% |
| 13 December 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 6 December 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.1% |
| 25 November 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.6–2.5% |
| 9 November 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.2% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.5–2.5% |
| 27 October 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| 20 October 2016 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.2% |
| 12 October 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.5–2.5% |
| 4 October 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.3% | 1.0–2.5% | 0.9–2.8% |
| 22 September 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| 14 September 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.3% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.7–2.3% | 0.6–2.6% |
| 27 July 2016 | Red C Paddy Power |
1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| 13 July 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.8% |
| 13 July 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.3% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.6–2.6% |
| 7 July 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
1.2% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.2% |
| 29 June 2016 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–2.0% |
| 15 June 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.5–2.5% |
| 26 May 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.5–2.4% |
| 11 May 2016 | Red C Paddy Power |
1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–1.9% | 0.5–2.2% |
| 11 May 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| 13 April 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.7–2.3% | 0.6–2.6% |
| 10 March 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Independents 4 Change.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 0.5–1.5% | 64% | 99.7% | Median |
| 1.5–2.5% | 35% | 35% | Last Result |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 4 seats (General Election of 26 February 2016)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 3 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 0–4 |
| 27 January–2 February 2020 | Survation Sinn Féin |
3 | 2–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 0–4 |
| 30 January–1 February 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| 25–30 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 3 | 2–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| 24–30 January 2020 | Panelbase The Times |
3 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 0–4 |
| 1–25 January 2020 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
3 | 1–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| 16–23 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| 16–18 January 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
3 | 3 | 2–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| 4–14 January 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 0–3 |
| 24 December 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| 5–17 December 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 14–21 November 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 1–12 November 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| 17–24 October 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 0–5 |
| 3–15 October 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 0–3 |
| 11–13 October 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
4 | 3–4 | 1–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 5–17 September 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 5–12 September 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 1–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 4–16 July 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| 31 May–11 June 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4 | 1–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 24 May 2019 | Red C RTÉ |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 1–22 May 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6–16 May 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| 2–14 May 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 6–8 May 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 11–17 April 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 4–16 April 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 21–28 March 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 1–5 |
| 28 February–12 March 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 1–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 4–5 March 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
4 | 1–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 14–20 February 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 1–5 | 0–5 |
| 31 January–12 February 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| 17–24 January 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 1–5 |
| 4–15 January 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4 | 1–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 14–21 December 2018 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
3 | 1–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 6–18 December 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 1–13 December 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–4 |
| 15–22 November 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 1–13 November 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 26 October 2018 | Red C RTÉ |
2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 0–4 |
| 11–17 October 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| 5–16 October 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 10–12 October 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–4 |
| 3–10 October 2018 | Red C Paddy Power |
4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 6–18 September 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 6–13 September 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2 | 2–4 | 1–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 15–24 August 2018 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 1–5 |
| 5–17 July 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 12 June 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| 10–16 May 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2 | 2 | 1–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 3–15 May 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 19–30 April 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 April 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 0–5 |
| 16–17 April 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
1 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 5–17 April 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 0–3 |
| 15–22 March 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 6–13 March 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 15–22 February 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| 6–14 February 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
1 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 1–13 February 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| 15–25 January 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 22–23 January 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 4–16 January 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 24 December 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 22 December 2017 | Ireland Thinks Irish Daily Mail |
3 | 1–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 7 December 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
2 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| 23 November 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 7 November 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| 20 October 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 2–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 10 October 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 2 October 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| 22 September 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 0–3 |
| 12 September 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 21 July 2017 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| 11 July 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 5 July 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 10 June 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 25 May 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 0–5 |
| 13 May 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 28 April 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 11 April 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 24 March 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 2–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 8 March 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 28 February 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
1 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| 23 February 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 16 February 2017 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| 8 February 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| 26 January 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 3–5 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 0–5 |
| 21 January 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 13 December 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 6 December 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
2 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 25 November 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 1–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 9 November 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 27 October 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 20 October 2016 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 12 October 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 4 October 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 22 September 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 14 September 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 27 July 2016 | Red C Paddy Power |
2 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 13 July 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
0 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| 13 July 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 7 July 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 29 June 2016 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| 15 June 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 26 May 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 11 May 2016 | Red C Paddy Power |
2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 11 May 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 13 April 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 1–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 10 March 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Independents 4 Change.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 9% | 98% | |
| 2 | 13% | 89% | |
| 3 | 66% | 76% | Median |
| 4 | 10% | 10% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |