Independent
Voting Intentions
Last result: 15.9% (General Election of 26 February 2016)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 10.4% | 8.7–13.4% | 8.3–14.1% | 8.0–14.6% | 7.4–15.5% |
| 27 January–2 February 2020 | Survation Sinn Féin |
10.1% | 9.1–11.4% | 8.7–11.8% | 8.5–12.1% | 8.0–12.7% |
| 30 January–1 February 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
13.5% | 12.3–14.8% | 12.0–15.2% | 11.7–15.6% | 11.1–16.2% |
| 25–30 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
11.2% | 10.0–12.6% | 9.7–13.0% | 9.4–13.3% | 8.8–14.0% |
| 24–30 January 2020 | Panelbase The Times |
10.1% | 9.0–11.4% | 8.6–11.8% | 8.4–12.1% | 7.9–12.8% |
| 1–25 January 2020 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
9.3% | 8.2–10.7% | 7.9–11.1% | 7.6–11.4% | 7.1–12.0% |
| 16–23 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
12.7% | 11.4–14.1% | 11.1–14.6% | 10.8–14.9% | 10.2–15.6% |
| 16–18 January 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
11.0% | 9.9–12.2% | 9.6–12.6% | 9.3–12.9% | 8.9–13.5% |
| 4–14 January 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
9.3% | 8.2–10.7% | 7.9–11.0% | 7.6–11.4% | 7.1–12.0% |
| 24 December 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
11.9% | 10.9–13.0% | 10.6–13.3% | 10.3–13.5% | 9.9–14.1% |
| 5–17 December 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.7% | 5.8–7.9% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.3–8.5% | 4.9–9.1% |
| 14–21 November 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
11.8% | 10.6–13.2% | 10.2–13.6% | 9.9–14.0% | 9.4–14.6% |
| 1–12 November 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
9.3% | 8.2–10.7% | 7.9–11.0% | 7.6–11.4% | 7.1–12.0% |
| 17–24 October 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
12.7% | 11.4–14.1% | 11.1–14.6% | 10.8–14.9% | 10.2–15.6% |
| 3–15 October 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
8.4% | 7.4–9.8% | 7.1–10.1% | 6.8–10.5% | 6.3–11.1% |
| 11–13 October 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
11.9% | 11.4–13.9% | 11.1–14.3% | 10.8–14.6% | 10.3–15.2% |
| 5–17 September 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
8.5% | 7.4–9.8% | 7.1–10.1% | 6.8–10.5% | 6.3–11.1% |
| 5–12 September 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
11.0% | 9.8–12.4% | 9.5–12.8% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.7–13.8% |
| 4–16 July 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.9% | 5.9–8.1% | 5.6–8.4% | 5.4–8.7% | 5.0–9.3% |
| 31 May–11 June 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
11.2% | 9.9–12.6% | 9.5–13.0% | 9.2–13.3% | 8.7–14.1% |
| 24 May 2019 | Red C RTÉ |
9.4% | 8.6–10.0% | 8.4–10.3% | 8.2–10.5% | 7.9–10.8% |
| 1–22 May 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
-0.8% | 0.0–0.2% | 0.0–0.2% | 0.0–0.2% | 0.0–0.3% |
| 6–16 May 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
13.6% | 12.6–14.5% | 12.3–14.8% | 12.1–15.1% | 11.6–15.6% |
| 2–14 May 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
7.6% | 6.6–8.8% | 6.3–9.2% | 6.1–9.5% | 5.6–10.1% |
| 6–8 May 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
15.1% | 13.9–16.3% | 13.6–16.7% | 13.3–17.0% | 12.8–17.6% |
| 11–17 April 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
14.3% | 13.0–15.8% | 12.6–16.2% | 12.3–16.6% | 11.6–17.4% |
| 4–16 April 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
8.5% | 7.4–9.8% | 7.1–10.1% | 6.8–10.4% | 6.4–11.1% |
| 21–28 March 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
12.6% | 11.3–14.0% | 11.0–14.4% | 10.7–14.8% | 10.1–15.5% |
| 28 February–12 March 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
10.3% | 9.1–11.7% | 8.8–12.1% | 8.5–12.5% | 8.0–13.2% |
| 4–5 March 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
11.0% | 9.9–12.2% | 9.6–12.6% | 9.3–12.9% | 8.9–13.5% |
| 14–20 February 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
12.6% | 11.3–14.0% | 11.0–14.4% | 10.7–14.8% | 10.1–15.5% |
| 31 January–12 February 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
11.8% | 10.5–13.2% | 10.1–13.7% | 9.8–14.0% | 9.2–14.8% |
| 17–24 January 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
11.9% | 10.7–13.3% | 10.3–13.7% | 10.0–14.1% | 9.5–14.8% |
| 4–15 January 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
11.0% | 9.8–12.5% | 9.4–12.9% | 9.1–13.2% | 8.6–14.0% |
| 14–21 December 2018 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
10.8% | 9.8–11.9% | 9.6–12.2% | 9.3–12.5% | 8.9–13.0% |
| 6–18 December 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
8.3% | 7.3–9.6% | 7.0–10.0% | 6.7–10.3% | 6.2–11.0% |
| 1–13 December 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
5.1% | 4.3–6.2% | 4.1–6.5% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.5–7.3% |
| 15–22 November 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
8.4% | 7.4–9.6% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.8–10.3% | 6.4–10.9% |
| 1–13 November 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
7.6% | 6.6–8.9% | 6.3–9.2% | 6.1–9.5% | 5.6–10.2% |
| 26 October 2018 | Red C RTÉ |
9.3% | 8.7–9.9% | 8.5–10.1% | 8.3–10.3% | 8.1–10.6% |
| 11–17 October 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
10.1% | 9.0–11.4% | 8.6–11.8% | 8.4–12.1% | 7.9–12.8% |
| 5–16 October 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
7.8% | 6.7–9.0% | 6.4–9.3% | 6.2–9.6% | 5.7–10.3% |
| 10–12 October 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
5.1% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.1–6.2% | 4.0–6.5% | 3.6–7.0% |
| 3–10 October 2018 | Red C Paddy Power |
11.0% | 9.8–12.4% | 9.5–12.8% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.7–13.8% |
| 6–18 September 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.7% | 5.8–7.9% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.3–8.5% | 4.8–9.1% |
| 6–13 September 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
11.2% | 9.9–12.5% | 9.6–12.9% | 9.3–13.2% | 8.7–13.9% |
| 15–24 August 2018 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
14.3% | 13.0–15.9% | 12.6–16.3% | 12.2–16.7% | 11.6–17.5% |
| 5–17 July 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
8.6% | 7.5–9.9% | 7.2–10.3% | 7.0–10.6% | 6.5–11.2% |
| 12 June 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
7.6% | 6.6–8.9% | 6.3–9.2% | 6.1–9.5% | 5.6–10.1% |
| 10–16 May 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
7.6% | 6.6–8.8% | 6.3–9.1% | 6.1–9.4% | 5.7–10.0% |
| 3–15 May 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
8.6% | 7.5–9.8% | 7.2–10.2% | 6.9–10.5% | 6.4–11.2% |
| 19–30 April 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
1.7% | 1.3–2.3% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.1–2.7% | 0.9–3.0% |
| 26 April 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
11.2% | 9.9–12.5% | 9.6–12.9% | 9.3–13.2% | 8.7–13.9% |
| 16–17 April 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
7.6% | 6.7–8.7% | 6.4–9.0% | 6.2–9.2% | 5.8–9.8% |
| 5–17 April 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
8.4% | 7.2–9.6% | 6.9–9.9% | 6.7–10.3% | 6.2–10.9% |
| 15–22 March 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
10.2% | 9.0–11.4% | 8.6–11.8% | 8.4–12.1% | 7.9–12.8% |
| 6–13 March 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
8.3% | 7.3–9.6% | 7.0–10.0% | 6.7–10.3% | 6.2–11.0% |
| 15–22 February 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
8.6% | 7.5–9.7% | 7.2–10.1% | 6.9–10.4% | 6.4–11.0% |
| 6–14 February 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
8.8% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.4–10.4% | 7.1–10.7% | 6.7–11.4% |
| 1–13 February 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
7.6% | 6.6–8.8% | 6.3–9.1% | 6.0–9.4% | 5.6–10.1% |
| 15–25 January 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
7.6% | 6.6–8.8% | 6.3–9.1% | 6.1–9.4% | 5.7–10.0% |
| 22–23 January 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
9.3% | 8.3–10.5% | 8.0–10.8% | 7.8–11.1% | 7.4–11.7% |
| 4–16 January 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
7.6% | 6.6–8.9% | 6.3–9.2% | 6.1–9.5% | 5.6–10.1% |
| 24 December 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.8% | 5.8–8.0% | 5.6–8.3% | 5.3–8.6% | 4.9–9.2% |
| 22 December 2017 | Ireland Thinks Irish Daily Mail |
10.1% | 9.1–11.4% | 8.8–11.7% | 8.5–12.0% | 8.0–12.7% |
| 7 December 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
8.4% | 7.5–9.5% | 7.2–9.8% | 7.0–10.1% | 6.5–10.7% |
| 23 November 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
8.5% | 7.4–9.7% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.9–10.4% | 6.4–11.0% |
| 7 November 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.9% | 5.9–8.0% | 5.6–8.4% | 5.4–8.7% | 5.0–9.3% |
| 20 October 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
10.2% | 9.0–11.5% | 8.7–11.9% | 8.4–12.2% | 7.9–12.8% |
| 10 October 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
10.2% | 9.0–11.6% | 8.6–11.9% | 8.4–12.3% | 7.8–13.0% |
| 2 October 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
7.6% | 6.7–8.7% | 6.4–9.0% | 6.2–9.2% | 5.8–9.8% |
| 22 September 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
8.5% | 7.4–9.7% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.9–10.4% | 6.4–11.0% |
| 12 September 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
8.4% | 7.4–9.7% | 7.1–10.1% | 6.8–10.4% | 6.3–11.0% |
| 21 July 2017 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
5.9% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.7–7.3% | 4.5–7.5% | 4.1–8.1% |
| 11 July 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
7.6% | 6.6–8.8% | 6.3–9.2% | 6.0–9.5% | 5.6–10.1% |
| 5 July 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
7.0% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.6–8.3% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.1% |
| 10 June 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
7.6% | 6.6–8.7% | 6.3–9.1% | 6.1–9.4% | 5.7–10.0% |
| 25 May 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
12.7% | 11.4–14.1% | 11.0–14.5% | 10.7–14.9% | 10.2–15.6% |
| 13 May 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
11.9% | 10.6–13.3% | 10.2–13.7% | 9.9–14.1% | 9.4–14.8% |
| 28 April 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
8.5% | 7.4–9.7% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.9–10.4% | 6.4–11.0% |
| 11 April 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
8.3% | 7.3–9.6% | 7.0–10.0% | 6.7–10.3% | 6.2–10.9% |
| 24 March 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
11.0% | 9.8–12.3% | 9.4–12.7% | 9.2–13.0% | 8.6–13.7% |
| 8 March 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
7.7% | 6.7–8.9% | 6.4–9.3% | 6.2–9.6% | 5.7–10.2% |
| 28 February 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
7.6% | 6.7–8.7% | 6.4–9.0% | 6.2–9.2% | 5.8–9.8% |
| 23 February 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
8.5% | 7.4–9.7% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.9–10.4% | 6.4–11.0% |
| 16 February 2017 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
3.3% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.5% | 2.4–4.7% | 2.1–5.1% |
| 8 February 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
8.5% | 7.4–9.8% | 7.1–10.1% | 6.9–10.4% | 6.4–11.1% |
| 26 January 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
11.9% | 10.6–13.3% | 10.3–13.7% | 10.0–14.0% | 9.4–14.7% |
| 21 January 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
12.5% | 11.2–14.0% | 10.8–14.4% | 10.5–14.8% | 9.9–15.5% |
| 13 December 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
7.6% | 6.6–8.8% | 6.3–9.2% | 6.0–9.5% | 5.6–10.1% |
| 6 December 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
8.4% | 7.5–9.5% | 7.2–9.8% | 7.0–10.1% | 6.5–10.7% |
| 25 November 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
10.3% | 9.1–11.5% | 8.7–11.9% | 8.5–12.2% | 8.0–12.9% |
| 9 November 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
9.3% | 8.2–10.7% | 7.9–11.0% | 7.6–11.4% | 7.1–12.0% |
| 27 October 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
8.4% | 7.3–9.6% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.8–10.3% | 6.4–10.9% |
| 20 October 2016 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
2.5% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.6% | 1.7–3.8% | 1.5–4.2% |
| 12 October 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
9.4% | 8.2–10.7% | 7.9–11.1% | 7.7–11.4% | 7.1–12.1% |
| 4 October 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
12.8% | 11.7–14.2% | 11.3–14.5% | 11.1–14.9% | 10.5–15.5% |
| 22 September 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
8.4% | 7.3–9.6% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.8–10.3% | 6.4–10.9% |
| 14 September 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
10.2% | 9.0–11.6% | 8.7–12.0% | 8.4–12.4% | 7.9–13.0% |
| 27 July 2016 | Red C Paddy Power |
8.5% | 7.5–9.7% | 7.2–10.1% | 6.9–10.4% | 6.4–11.0% |
| 13 July 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6.7% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.1% | 5.3–8.4% | 4.9–9.0% |
| 13 July 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
10.1% | 8.9–11.5% | 8.6–11.9% | 8.3–12.3% | 7.8–13.0% |
| 7 July 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
9.4% | 8.4–10.6% | 8.1–10.9% | 7.9–11.2% | 7.4–11.8% |
| 29 June 2016 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
6.8% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.6–8.3% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.1% |
| 15 June 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
9.5% | 8.3–10.8% | 8.0–11.2% | 7.7–11.5% | 7.2–12.2% |
| 26 May 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
9.4% | 8.3–10.7% | 8.0–11.0% | 7.7–11.3% | 7.2–12.0% |
| 11 May 2016 | Red C Paddy Power |
8.5% | 7.4–9.7% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.9–10.3% | 6.4–11.0% |
| 11 May 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
7.6% | 6.5–8.8% | 6.3–9.2% | 6.0–9.5% | 5.5–10.1% |
| 13 April 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
10.2% | 9.0–11.5% | 8.6–11.9% | 8.4–12.3% | 7.8–13.0% |
| 10 March 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
7.8% | 6.7–8.8% | 6.4–9.2% | 6.2–9.5% | 5.7–10.1% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Independent.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 7% | 99.3% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 21% | 93% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 27% | 72% | Median |
| 10.5–11.5% | 19% | 45% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 10% | 26% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 8% | 16% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 6% | 9% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 2% | 3% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 19 seats (General Election of 26 February 2016)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 11 | 6–17 | 4–18 | 3–19 | 3–21 |
| 27 January–2 February 2020 | Survation Sinn Féin |
11 | 8–16 | 7–17 | 6–17 | 4–17 |
| 30 January–1 February 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
18 | 17–19 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 14–22 |
| 25–30 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
14 | 10–17 | 8–17 | 7–18 | 6–19 |
| 24–30 January 2020 | Panelbase The Times |
11 | 6–15 | 5–15 | 5–16 | 4–17 |
| 1–25 January 2020 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
7 | 3–13 | 3–14 | 3–15 | 3–15 |
| 16–23 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
17 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 12–18 | 10–19 |
| 16–18 January 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
13 | 9–16 | 8–16 | 7–17 | 6–17 |
| 4–14 January 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
10 | 7–11 | 5–13 | 4–13 | 3–15 |
| 24 December 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
14 | 11–17 | 10–17 | 9–17 | 6–17 |
| 5–17 December 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–6 |
| 14–21 November 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
12 | 8–16 | 8–16 | 7–16 | 5–16 |
| 1–12 November 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6 | 3–11 | 3–14 | 3–15 | 3–15 |
| 17–24 October 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
14 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 10–16 | 8–16 |
| 3–15 October 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3–6 | 3–8 | 3–9 | 3–11 |
| 11–13 October 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
9 | 9–16 | 7–16 | 7–16 | 6–16 |
| 5–17 September 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 3–8 | 3–11 |
| 5–12 September 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
10 | 7–14 | 6–15 | 5–15 | 4–16 |
| 4–16 July 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 1–6 |
| 31 May–11 June 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
11 | 6–14 | 6–15 | 5–15 | 3–16 |
| 24 May 2019 | Red C RTÉ |
7 | 3–9 | 3–11 | 3–11 | 3–14 |
| 1–22 May 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6–16 May 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
16 | 15–16 | 15–16 | 14–16 | 13–16 |
| 2–14 May 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–8 |
| 6–8 May 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
16 | 16 | 16 | 15–16 | 12–16 |
| 11–17 April 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
17 | 16–18 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 14–21 |
| 4–16 April 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
| 21–28 March 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
14 | 10–16 | 9–16 | 8–16 | 7–16 |
| 28 February–12 March 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6 | 5–9 | 4–10 | 4–11 | 3–15 |
| 4–5 March 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
7 | 5–12 | 5–14 | 5–15 | 4–16 |
| 14–20 February 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
14 | 9–16 | 9–16 | 8–16 | 6–16 |
| 31 January–12 February 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
13 | 8–17 | 7–17 | 6–17 | 4–18 |
| 17–24 January 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
9 | 8–14 | 8–15 | 7–16 | 5–16 |
| 4–15 January 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
8 | 6–12 | 6–14 | 4–16 | 4–16 |
| 14–21 December 2018 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
6 | 4–10 | 4–11 | 4–12 | 4–15 |
| 6–18 December 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–8 |
| 1–13 December 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 15–22 November 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 3–9 | 3–10 |
| 1–13 November 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 1–6 |
| 26 October 2018 | Red C RTÉ |
4 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–8 |
| 11–17 October 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
7 | 4–12 | 4–14 | 4–16 | 3–16 |
| 5–16 October 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| 10–12 October 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
2 | 1–2 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| 3–10 October 2018 | Red C Paddy Power |
9 | 4–14 | 4–14 | 4–14 | 3–16 |
| 6–18 September 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 1–6 |
| 6–13 September 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
12 | 7–13 | 6–14 | 5–14 | 5–15 |
| 15–24 August 2018 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
16 | 15–16 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 7–17 |
| 5–17 July 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 3–10 |
| 12 June 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4 | 3–7 | 2–7 | 2–8 | 2–11 |
| 10–16 May 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–8 |
| 3–15 May 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 3–8 | 3–10 |
| 19–30 April 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 April 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
9 | 6–13 | 5–14 | 5–16 | 3–16 |
| 16–17 April 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| 5–17 April 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4 | 3–6 | 3–7 | 3–8 | 3–11 |
| 15–22 March 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6 | 5–10 | 4–12 | 3–12 | 3–14 |
| 6–13 March 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–8 |
| 15–22 February 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 3–6 | 3–9 | 3–9 | 3–9 |
| 6–14 February 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
4 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–7 | 3–9 |
| 1–13 February 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
| 15–25 January 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| 22–23 January 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
6 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 3–10 |
| 4–16 January 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| 24 December 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 1–6 |
| 22 December 2017 | Ireland Thinks Irish Daily Mail |
6 | 5–7 | 3–8 | 3–9 | 3–12 |
| 7 December 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
5 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 3–9 | 3–10 |
| 23 November 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–10 |
| 7 November 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 1–4 |
| 20 October 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
8 | 5–15 | 4–15 | 3–15 | 3–16 |
| 10 October 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6 | 4–9 | 4–10 | 4–11 | 3–15 |
| 2 October 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| 22 September 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–8 | 3–11 |
| 12 September 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4 | 3–6 | 3–7 | 3–8 | 3–9 |
| 21 July 2017 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
2 | 1–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 11 July 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–7 |
| 5 July 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| 10 June 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| 25 May 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
12 | 12–16 | 11–16 | 9–16 | 5–16 |
| 13 May 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
11 | 7–16 | 7–16 | 6–16 | 6–16 |
| 28 April 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–7 | 3–9 |
| 11 April 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–8 |
| 24 March 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
12 | 7–14 | 5–16 | 5–16 | 4–16 |
| 8 March 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4 | 2–5 | 2–7 | 2–7 | 2–8 |
| 28 February 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| 23 February 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 3–8 | 3–9 | 3–11 | 3–13 |
| 16 February 2017 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 8 February 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 3–7 | 3–9 |
| 26 January 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
15 | 12–16 | 8–16 | 6–18 | 4–18 |
| 21 January 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
13 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 | 9–17 |
| 13 December 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 2–8 |
| 6 December 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
3 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–8 |
| 25 November 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6 | 5–13 | 4–14 | 3–15 | 3–16 |
| 9 November 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5 | 4–8 | 4–9 | 4–11 | 4–12 |
| 27 October 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 3–9 | 3–9 | 3–10 | 3–12 |
| 20 October 2016 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 October 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6 | 3–7 | 3–8 | 3–9 | 3–12 |
| 4 October 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
16 | 13–18 | 11–18 | 10–18 | 9–19 |
| 22 September 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–10 |
| 14 September 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6 | 4–11 | 4–13 | 4–14 | 3–16 |
| 27 July 2016 | Red C Paddy Power |
3 | 3–6 | 3–7 | 3–8 | 3–10 |
| 13 July 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–5 |
| 13 July 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
8 | 4–12 | 4–13 | 3–14 | 3–15 |
| 7 July 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
7 | 4–10 | 4–10 | 4–11 | 3–13 |
| 29 June 2016 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
3 | 3 | 3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| 15 June 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6 | 4–10 | 3–12 | 3–12 | 3–16 |
| 26 May 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5 | 3–9 | 3–9 | 3–10 | 3–12 |
| 11 May 2016 | Red C Paddy Power |
4 | 3–7 | 3–9 | 3–10 | 3–12 |
| 11 May 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–9 | 2–10 |
| 13 April 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
9 | 5–13 | 5–14 | 4–15 | 4–16 |
| 10 March 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 3 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–7 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Independent.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 96% | |
| 5 | 2% | 95% | |
| 6 | 3% | 92% | |
| 7 | 6% | 89% | |
| 8 | 7% | 83% | |
| 9 | 6% | 76% | |
| 10 | 14% | 70% | |
| 11 | 7% | 56% | Median |
| 12 | 7% | 49% | |
| 13 | 9% | 43% | |
| 14 | 4% | 34% | |
| 15 | 6% | 30% | |
| 16 | 5% | 24% | |
| 17 | 10% | 19% | |
| 18 | 6% | 9% | |
| 19 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 20 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |