Independent

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 15.9% (General Election of 26 February 2016)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 10.4% 8.7–13.4% 8.3–14.1% 8.0–14.6% 7.4–15.5%
27 January–2 February 2020 Survation
Sinn Féin
10.1% 9.1–11.4% 8.7–11.8% 8.5–12.1% 8.0–12.7%
30 January–1 February 2020 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times
13.5% 12.3–14.8% 12.0–15.2% 11.7–15.6% 11.1–16.2%
25–30 January 2020 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
11.2% 10.0–12.6% 9.7–13.0% 9.4–13.3% 8.8–14.0%
24–30 January 2020 Panelbase
The Times
10.1% 9.0–11.4% 8.6–11.8% 8.4–12.1% 7.9–12.8%
1–25 January 2020 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail
9.3% 8.2–10.7% 7.9–11.1% 7.6–11.4% 7.1–12.0%
16–23 January 2020 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
12.7% 11.4–14.1% 11.1–14.6% 10.8–14.9% 10.2–15.6%
16–18 January 2020 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times
11.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.6% 9.3–12.9% 8.9–13.5%
4–14 January 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
9.3% 8.2–10.7% 7.9–11.0% 7.6–11.4% 7.1–12.0%
24 December 2019 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail
11.9% 10.9–13.0% 10.6–13.3% 10.3–13.5% 9.9–14.1%
5–17 December 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
6.7% 5.8–7.9% 5.5–8.2% 5.3–8.5% 4.9–9.1%
14–21 November 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
11.8% 10.6–13.2% 10.2–13.6% 9.9–14.0% 9.4–14.6%
1–12 November 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
9.3% 8.2–10.7% 7.9–11.0% 7.6–11.4% 7.1–12.0%
17–24 October 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
12.7% 11.4–14.1% 11.1–14.6% 10.8–14.9% 10.2–15.6%
3–15 October 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
8.4% 7.4–9.8% 7.1–10.1% 6.8–10.5% 6.3–11.1%
11–13 October 2019 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times
11.9% 11.4–13.9% 11.1–14.3% 10.8–14.6% 10.3–15.2%
5–17 September 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
8.5% 7.4–9.8% 7.1–10.1% 6.8–10.5% 6.3–11.1%
5–12 September 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
4–16 July 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
6.9% 5.9–8.1% 5.6–8.4% 5.4–8.7% 5.0–9.3%
31 May–11 June 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
11.2% 9.9–12.6% 9.5–13.0% 9.2–13.3% 8.7–14.1%
24 May 2019 Red C
RTÉ
9.4% 8.6–10.0% 8.4–10.3% 8.2–10.5% 7.9–10.8%
1–22 May 2019 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail
-0.8% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.3%
6–16 May 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
13.6% 12.6–14.5% 12.3–14.8% 12.1–15.1% 11.6–15.6%
2–14 May 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.2% 6.1–9.5% 5.6–10.1%
6–8 May 2019 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times
15.1% 13.9–16.3% 13.6–16.7% 13.3–17.0% 12.8–17.6%
11–17 April 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
14.3% 13.0–15.8% 12.6–16.2% 12.3–16.6% 11.6–17.4%
4–16 April 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
8.5% 7.4–9.8% 7.1–10.1% 6.8–10.4% 6.4–11.1%
21–28 March 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
12.6% 11.3–14.0% 11.0–14.4% 10.7–14.8% 10.1–15.5%
28 February–12 March 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
10.3% 9.1–11.7% 8.8–12.1% 8.5–12.5% 8.0–13.2%
4–5 March 2019 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times
11.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.6% 9.3–12.9% 8.9–13.5%
14–20 February 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
12.6% 11.3–14.0% 11.0–14.4% 10.7–14.8% 10.1–15.5%
31 January–12 February 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
11.8% 10.5–13.2% 10.1–13.7% 9.8–14.0% 9.2–14.8%
17–24 January 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
11.9% 10.7–13.3% 10.3–13.7% 10.0–14.1% 9.5–14.8%
4–15 January 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
11.0% 9.8–12.5% 9.4–12.9% 9.1–13.2% 8.6–14.0%
14–21 December 2018 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail
10.8% 9.8–11.9% 9.6–12.2% 9.3–12.5% 8.9–13.0%
6–18 December 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
8.3% 7.3–9.6% 7.0–10.0% 6.7–10.3% 6.2–11.0%
1–13 December 2018 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent
5.1% 4.3–6.2% 4.1–6.5% 3.9–6.7% 3.5–7.3%
15–22 November 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
1–13 November 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
7.6% 6.6–8.9% 6.3–9.2% 6.1–9.5% 5.6–10.2%
26 October 2018 Red C
RTÉ
9.3% 8.7–9.9% 8.5–10.1% 8.3–10.3% 8.1–10.6%
11–17 October 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
10.1% 9.0–11.4% 8.6–11.8% 8.4–12.1% 7.9–12.8%
5–16 October 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
7.8% 6.7–9.0% 6.4–9.3% 6.2–9.6% 5.7–10.3%
10–12 October 2018 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times
5.1% 4.3–6.0% 4.1–6.2% 4.0–6.5% 3.6–7.0%
3–10 October 2018 Red C
Paddy Power
11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
6–18 September 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
6.7% 5.8–7.9% 5.5–8.2% 5.3–8.5% 4.8–9.1%
6–13 September 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
11.2% 9.9–12.5% 9.6–12.9% 9.3–13.2% 8.7–13.9%
15–24 August 2018 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail
14.3% 13.0–15.9% 12.6–16.3% 12.2–16.7% 11.6–17.5%
5–17 July 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
8.6% 7.5–9.9% 7.2–10.3% 7.0–10.6% 6.5–11.2%
12 June 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
7.6% 6.6–8.9% 6.3–9.2% 6.1–9.5% 5.6–10.1%
10–16 May 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
3–15 May 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
8.6% 7.5–9.8% 7.2–10.2% 6.9–10.5% 6.4–11.2%
19–30 April 2018 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent
1.7% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.0%
26 April 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
11.2% 9.9–12.5% 9.6–12.9% 9.3–13.2% 8.7–13.9%
16–17 April 2018 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times
7.6% 6.7–8.7% 6.4–9.0% 6.2–9.2% 5.8–9.8%
5–17 April 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
8.4% 7.2–9.6% 6.9–9.9% 6.7–10.3% 6.2–10.9%
15–22 March 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
10.2% 9.0–11.4% 8.6–11.8% 8.4–12.1% 7.9–12.8%
6–13 March 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
8.3% 7.3–9.6% 7.0–10.0% 6.7–10.3% 6.2–11.0%
15–22 February 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
8.6% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.0%
6–14 February 2018 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent
8.8% 7.7–10.0% 7.4–10.4% 7.1–10.7% 6.7–11.4%
1–13 February 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.0–9.4% 5.6–10.1%
15–25 January 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
22–23 January 2018 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times
9.3% 8.3–10.5% 8.0–10.8% 7.8–11.1% 7.4–11.7%
4–16 January 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
7.6% 6.6–8.9% 6.3–9.2% 6.1–9.5% 5.6–10.1%
24 December 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
6.8% 5.8–8.0% 5.6–8.3% 5.3–8.6% 4.9–9.2%
22 December 2017 Ireland Thinks
Irish Daily Mail
10.1% 9.1–11.4% 8.8–11.7% 8.5–12.0% 8.0–12.7%
7 December 2017 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times
8.4% 7.5–9.5% 7.2–9.8% 7.0–10.1% 6.5–10.7%
23 November 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
8.5% 7.4–9.7% 7.1–10.0% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.0%
7 November 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
6.9% 5.9–8.0% 5.6–8.4% 5.4–8.7% 5.0–9.3%
20 October 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
10.2% 9.0–11.5% 8.7–11.9% 8.4–12.2% 7.9–12.8%
10 October 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
10.2% 9.0–11.6% 8.6–11.9% 8.4–12.3% 7.8–13.0%
2 October 2017 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times
7.6% 6.7–8.7% 6.4–9.0% 6.2–9.2% 5.8–9.8%
22 September 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
8.5% 7.4–9.7% 7.1–10.0% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.0%
12 September 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
8.4% 7.4–9.7% 7.1–10.1% 6.8–10.4% 6.3–11.0%
21 July 2017 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent
5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.7–7.3% 4.5–7.5% 4.1–8.1%
11 July 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.2% 6.0–9.5% 5.6–10.1%
5 July 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
7.0% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
10 June 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
7.6% 6.6–8.7% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
25 May 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
12.7% 11.4–14.1% 11.0–14.5% 10.7–14.9% 10.2–15.6%
13 May 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
11.9% 10.6–13.3% 10.2–13.7% 9.9–14.1% 9.4–14.8%
28 April 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
8.5% 7.4–9.7% 7.1–10.0% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.0%
11 April 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
8.3% 7.3–9.6% 7.0–10.0% 6.7–10.3% 6.2–10.9%
24 March 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
11.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.2–13.0% 8.6–13.7%
8 March 2017 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times
7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.3% 6.2–9.6% 5.7–10.2%
28 February 2017 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times
7.6% 6.7–8.7% 6.4–9.0% 6.2–9.2% 5.8–9.8%
23 February 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
8.5% 7.4–9.7% 7.1–10.0% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.0%
16 February 2017 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent
3.3% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.1%
8 February 2017 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times
8.5% 7.4–9.8% 7.1–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.1%
26 January 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
11.9% 10.6–13.3% 10.3–13.7% 10.0–14.0% 9.4–14.7%
21 January 2017 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times
12.5% 11.2–14.0% 10.8–14.4% 10.5–14.8% 9.9–15.5%
13 December 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times
7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.2% 6.0–9.5% 5.6–10.1%
6 December 2016 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times
8.4% 7.5–9.5% 7.2–9.8% 7.0–10.1% 6.5–10.7%
25 November 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
10.3% 9.1–11.5% 8.7–11.9% 8.5–12.2% 8.0–12.9%
9 November 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times
9.3% 8.2–10.7% 7.9–11.0% 7.6–11.4% 7.1–12.0%
27 October 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
8.4% 7.3–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
20 October 2016 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent
2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.6% 1.7–3.8% 1.5–4.2%
12 October 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times
9.4% 8.2–10.7% 7.9–11.1% 7.7–11.4% 7.1–12.1%
4 October 2016 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times
12.8% 11.7–14.2% 11.3–14.5% 11.1–14.9% 10.5–15.5%
22 September 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
8.4% 7.3–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
14 September 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times
10.2% 9.0–11.6% 8.7–12.0% 8.4–12.4% 7.9–13.0%
27 July 2016 Red C
Paddy Power
8.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.0%
13 July 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.1% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%
13 July 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times
10.1% 8.9–11.5% 8.6–11.9% 8.3–12.3% 7.8–13.0%
7 July 2016 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times
9.4% 8.4–10.6% 8.1–10.9% 7.9–11.2% 7.4–11.8%
29 June 2016 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent
6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
15 June 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times
9.5% 8.3–10.8% 8.0–11.2% 7.7–11.5% 7.2–12.2%
26 May 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
9.4% 8.3–10.7% 8.0–11.0% 7.7–11.3% 7.2–12.0%
11 May 2016 Red C
Paddy Power
8.5% 7.4–9.7% 7.1–10.0% 6.9–10.3% 6.4–11.0%
11 May 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times
7.6% 6.5–8.8% 6.3–9.2% 6.0–9.5% 5.5–10.1%
13 April 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times
10.2% 9.0–11.5% 8.6–11.9% 8.4–12.3% 7.8–13.0%
10 March 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
7.8% 6.7–8.8% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.7–10.1%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Independent.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5.5–6.5% 0% 100%  
6.5–7.5% 0.7% 100%  
7.5–8.5% 7% 99.3%  
8.5–9.5% 21% 93%  
9.5–10.5% 27% 72% Median
10.5–11.5% 19% 45%  
11.5–12.5% 10% 26%  
12.5–13.5% 8% 16%  
13.5–14.5% 6% 9%  
14.5–15.5% 2% 3%  
15.5–16.5% 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
16.5–17.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 19 seats (General Election of 26 February 2016)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 11 6–17 4–18 3–19 3–21
27 January–2 February 2020 Survation
Sinn Féin
11 8–16 7–17 6–17 4–17
30 January–1 February 2020 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times
18 17–19 16–20 16–21 14–22
25–30 January 2020 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
14 10–17 8–17 7–18 6–19
24–30 January 2020 Panelbase
The Times
11 6–15 5–15 5–16 4–17
1–25 January 2020 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail
7 3–13 3–14 3–15 3–15
16–23 January 2020 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
17 13–17 13–18 12–18 10–19
16–18 January 2020 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times
13 9–16 8–16 7–17 6–17
4–14 January 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
10 7–11 5–13 4–13 3–15
24 December 2019 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail
14 11–17 10–17 9–17 6–17
5–17 December 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
3 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–6
14–21 November 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
12 8–16 8–16 7–16 5–16
1–12 November 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
6 3–11 3–14 3–15 3–15
17–24 October 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
14 11–15 11–16 10–16 8–16
3–15 October 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
3 3–6 3–8 3–9 3–11
11–13 October 2019 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times
9 9–16 7–16 7–16 6–16
5–17 September 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
5 4–6 4–7 3–8 3–11
5–12 September 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
10 7–14 6–15 5–15 4–16
4–16 July 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
3 3–4 3–5 2–5 1–6
31 May–11 June 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
11 6–14 6–15 5–15 3–16
24 May 2019 Red C
RTÉ
7 3–9 3–11 3–11 3–14
1–22 May 2019 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail
0 0 0 0 0
6–16 May 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
16 15–16 15–16 14–16 13–16
2–14 May 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
4 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–8
6–8 May 2019 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times
16 16 16 15–16 12–16
11–17 April 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
17 16–18 16–19 15–20 14–21
4–16 April 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
4 4–6 4–6 3–6 3–7
21–28 March 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
14 10–16 9–16 8–16 7–16
28 February–12 March 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
6 5–9 4–10 4–11 3–15
4–5 March 2019 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times
7 5–12 5–14 5–15 4–16
14–20 February 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
14 9–16 9–16 8–16 6–16
31 January–12 February 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
13 8–17 7–17 6–17 4–18
17–24 January 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
9 8–14 8–15 7–16 5–16
4–15 January 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
8 6–12 6–14 4–16 4–16
14–21 December 2018 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail
6 4–10 4–11 4–12 4–15
6–18 December 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
3 3–4 3–5 3–6 3–8
1–13 December 2018 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent
1 1–2 1–2 0–3 0–3
15–22 November 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
4 3–7 3–7 3–9 3–10
1–13 November 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
3 3–4 2–4 2–5 1–6
26 October 2018 Red C
RTÉ
4 4–5 4–6 4–6 4–8
11–17 October 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
7 4–12 4–14 4–16 3–16
5–16 October 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
3 3–6 3–6 3–6 3–6
10–12 October 2018 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times
2 1–2 0–3 0–4 0–4
3–10 October 2018 Red C
Paddy Power
9 4–14 4–14 4–14 3–16
6–18 September 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
3 3–4 2–4 2–5 1–6
6–13 September 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
12 7–13 6–14 5–14 5–15
15–24 August 2018 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail
16 15–16 13–16 12–16 7–17
5–17 July 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
5 4–7 4–8 4–8 3–10
12 June 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
4 3–7 2–7 2–8 2–11
10–16 May 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
3 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–8
3–15 May 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
5 4–7 4–8 3–8 3–10
19–30 April 2018 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent
0 0 0 0 0
26 April 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
9 6–13 5–14 5–16 3–16
16–17 April 2018 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times
3 3–4 3–4 3–5 2–6
5–17 April 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
4 3–6 3–7 3–8 3–11
15–22 March 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
6 5–10 4–12 3–12 3–14
6–13 March 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
3 3–6 3–6 3–6 3–8
15–22 February 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
3 3–6 3–9 3–9 3–9
6–14 February 2018 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent
4 4–6 4–6 3–7 3–9
1–13 February 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
3 3–5 3–6 3–6 3–7
15–25 January 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
3 3 3–4 3–5 2–6
22–23 January 2018 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times
6 4–8 4–8 4–8 3–10
4–16 January 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
3 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–6
24 December 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
3 3–4 3–4 2–4 1–6
22 December 2017 Ireland Thinks
Irish Daily Mail
6 5–7 3–8 3–9 3–12
7 December 2017 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times
5 4–7 4–8 3–9 3–10
23 November 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
3 3–5 3–5 3–6 3–10
7 November 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
4 3–4 3–4 3–4 1–4
20 October 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
8 5–15 4–15 3–15 3–16
10 October 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
6 4–9 4–10 4–11 3–15
2 October 2017 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times
4 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–6
22 September 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
4 3–5 3–6 3–8 3–11
12 September 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
4 3–6 3–7 3–8 3–9
21 July 2017 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent
2 1–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
11 July 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–7
5 July 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
3 3 3–4 2–4 1–5
10 June 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
3 3–4 3–4 3–5 2–6
25 May 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
12 12–16 11–16 9–16 5–16
13 May 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
11 7–16 7–16 6–16 6–16
28 April 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
3 3–5 3–6 3–7 3–9
11 April 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times
3 3–6 3–6 3–6 3–8
24 March 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
12 7–14 5–16 5–16 4–16
8 March 2017 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times
4 2–5 2–7 2–7 2–8
28 February 2017 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times
4 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–6
23 February 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
4 3–8 3–9 3–11 3–13
16 February 2017 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent
0 0 0 0–1 0–1
8 February 2017 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times
5 4–5 4–6 3–7 3–9
26 January 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
15 12–16 8–16 6–18 4–18
21 January 2017 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times
13 13–16 12–16 12–17 9–17
13 December 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times
3 3–5 3–6 3–6 2–8
6 December 2016 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times
3 3–5 3–6 3–6 3–8
25 November 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
6 5–13 4–14 3–15 3–16
9 November 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times
5 4–8 4–9 4–11 4–12
27 October 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
3 3–9 3–9 3–10 3–12
20 October 2016 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent
0 0 0 0 0
12 October 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times
6 3–7 3–8 3–9 3–12
4 October 2016 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times
16 13–18 11–18 10–18 9–19
22 September 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
5 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–10
14 September 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times
6 4–11 4–13 4–14 3–16
27 July 2016 Red C
Paddy Power
3 3–6 3–7 3–8 3–10
13 July 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
3 3 3 3 2–5
13 July 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times
8 4–12 4–13 3–14 3–15
7 July 2016 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times
7 4–10 4–10 4–11 3–13
29 June 2016 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent
3 3 3 1–3 1–4
15 June 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times
6 4–10 3–12 3–12 3–16
26 May 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
5 3–9 3–9 3–10 3–12
11 May 2016 Red C
Paddy Power
4 3–7 3–9 3–10 3–12
11 May 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times
3 3–4 3–5 3–9 2–10
13 April 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times
9 5–13 5–14 4–15 4–16
10 March 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post
3 3 3–5 3–5 3–7

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Independent.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 4% 100%  
4 2% 96%  
5 2% 95%  
6 3% 92%  
7 6% 89%  
8 7% 83%  
9 6% 76%  
10 14% 70%  
11 7% 56% Median
12 7% 49%  
13 9% 43%  
14 4% 34%  
15 6% 30%  
16 5% 24%  
17 10% 19%  
18 6% 9%  
19 2% 3% Last Result
20 0.3% 0.9%  
21 0.4% 0.6%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%