Opinion Poll by Millward Brown for The Sunday Independent, 19–30 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 34.3% 32.4–36.3% 31.9–36.8% 31.4–37.3% 30.5–38.2%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 27.3% 25.6–29.2% 25.1–29.7% 24.6–30.2% 23.8–31.1%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 22.2% 20.6–24.0% 20.1–24.5% 19.8–24.9% 19.0–25.8%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.7%
Independent 15.9% 1.7% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.0%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 63 60–66 58–68 57–68 55–69
Fianna Fáil 44 50 45–52 44–53 43–54 43–55
Sinn Féin 23 40 38–42 38–45 37–45 36–46
Labour Party 7 3 3–6 1–7 0–7 0–9
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–3
Independent 19 0 0 0 0 0
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 0 0 0 0 0–1
Independents 4 Change 4 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.8%  
56 0.7% 99.4%  
57 3% 98.7%  
58 2% 96%  
59 3% 94%  
60 3% 90%  
61 10% 87%  
62 2% 77%  
63 40% 75% Median
64 5% 35%  
65 3% 30%  
66 18% 26%  
67 3% 9%  
68 4% 5%  
69 1.4% 1.5%  
70 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.4% 99.9%  
43 3% 99.6%  
44 2% 97% Last Result
45 11% 95%  
46 12% 84%  
47 8% 72%  
48 6% 64%  
49 2% 58%  
50 39% 56% Median
51 3% 17%  
52 4% 14%  
53 7% 10%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.9% 1.3%  
56 0.3% 0.3%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 1.3% 100%  
37 3% 98.7%  
38 15% 96%  
39 8% 81%  
40 47% 73% Median
41 12% 26%  
42 6% 13%  
43 1.2% 8%  
44 1.4% 7%  
45 3% 5%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 4% 96%  
2 0% 91%  
3 66% 91% Median
4 11% 25%  
5 1.5% 14%  
6 5% 12%  
7 6% 7% Last Result
8 1.2% 2%  
9 0.5% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 72% 100% Median
1 5% 28%  
2 15% 23% Last Result
3 7% 7%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Median
1 0.1% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 113 100% 108–114 108–115 107–116 106–119
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 90 99.8% 83–92 83–94 82–95 81–96
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 66 0% 64–73 62–73 61–74 60–75
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 66 0% 63–70 62–71 61–72 60–73
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 63 0% 61–69 59–69 57–70 56–71
Fine Gael 49 63 0% 60–66 58–68 57–68 55–69
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 53 0% 49–56 48–57 48–60 46–61
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 53 0% 49–56 47–57 46–59 45–61
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 50 0% 46–53 45–53 45–54 44–57

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 1.2% 99.7%  
107 3% 98.5%  
108 7% 95%  
109 5% 89%  
110 3% 83%  
111 14% 80%  
112 10% 66%  
113 43% 56% Median
114 7% 13%  
115 2% 6%  
116 3% 4%  
117 0.4% 1.2%  
118 0.3% 0.8%  
119 0.5% 0.5%  
120 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.8% 99.8% Majority
82 2% 99.1%  
83 7% 97%  
84 2% 89%  
85 2% 88%  
86 3% 85%  
87 14% 82%  
88 5% 68%  
89 7% 63%  
90 37% 56% Median
91 6% 19%  
92 6% 13%  
93 2% 7%  
94 3% 6%  
95 1.1% 3%  
96 2% 2%  
97 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 2% 100%  
61 1.1% 98%  
62 3% 97%  
63 2% 94%  
64 6% 93%  
65 6% 87%  
66 37% 81% Median
67 7% 44%  
68 5% 37%  
69 14% 32%  
70 3% 18%  
71 2% 14%  
72 2% 12%  
73 7% 11%  
74 3% 3%  
75 0.8% 0.9%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.4% 99.9%  
60 2% 99.5%  
61 2% 98%  
62 3% 95%  
63 3% 93%  
64 5% 89%  
65 7% 85%  
66 39% 78% Median
67 6% 39%  
68 3% 33%  
69 15% 29%  
70 7% 14%  
71 3% 6%  
72 2% 4%  
73 0.8% 1.1%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.6%  
57 2% 99.3%  
58 2% 97%  
59 4% 95%  
60 0.8% 92%  
61 12% 91%  
62 2% 79%  
63 38% 78% Median
64 3% 39%  
65 5% 36%  
66 15% 31%  
67 3% 16%  
68 3% 13%  
69 7% 11%  
70 3% 4%  
71 0.4% 0.6%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.8%  
56 0.7% 99.4%  
57 3% 98.7%  
58 2% 96%  
59 3% 94%  
60 3% 90%  
61 10% 87%  
62 2% 77%  
63 40% 75% Median
64 5% 35%  
65 3% 30%  
66 18% 26%  
67 3% 9%  
68 4% 5%  
69 1.4% 1.5%  
70 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 1.0% 100%  
47 0.5% 98.9%  
48 4% 98%  
49 11% 94%  
50 6% 83%  
51 4% 77%  
52 7% 72%  
53 41% 65% Last Result, Median
54 5% 24%  
55 7% 19%  
56 4% 12%  
57 4% 9%  
58 0.6% 4%  
59 0.7% 4%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.9% 1.3%  
62 0.4% 0.4%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.5% 100%  
46 3% 99.5%  
47 2% 96%  
48 4% 94%  
49 15% 90%  
50 6% 75%  
51 5% 69% Last Result
52 4% 64%  
53 40% 60% Median
54 5% 20%  
55 4% 15%  
56 3% 11%  
57 4% 7%  
58 0.4% 3%  
59 1.0% 3%  
60 1.3% 2%  
61 0.5% 0.5%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.5% 99.7%  
45 4% 99.2%  
46 11% 95% Last Result
47 12% 84%  
48 11% 72%  
49 3% 61%  
50 39% 59% Median
51 1.4% 19%  
52 7% 18%  
53 7% 11%  
54 2% 4%  
55 0.6% 2%  
56 0.5% 2%  
57 1.1% 1.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations