Opinion Poll by Factum Interactive, 26–30 April 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA | 6.7% | 16.8% | 15.4–18.2% | 15.0–18.6% | 14.7–19.0% | 14.1–19.7% |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” | 19.8% | 15.2% | 13.9–16.6% | 13.6–17.0% | 13.3–17.4% | 12.7–18.1% |
| Attīstībai/Par! | 12.0% | 12.2% | 11.1–13.5% | 10.7–13.9% | 10.5–14.2% | 9.9–14.9% |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” | 11.0% | 11.9% | 10.7–13.2% | 10.4–13.5% | 10.2–13.9% | 9.6–14.5% |
| Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 9.9% | 10.1% | 9.0–11.3% | 8.7–11.6% | 8.5–11.9% | 8.0–12.6% |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija | 13.6% | 7.4% | 6.4–8.4% | 6.2–8.7% | 6.0–9.0% | 5.6–9.5% |
| PROGRESĪVIE | 2.6% | 6.4% | 5.6–7.4% | 5.3–7.7% | 5.1–8.0% | 4.8–8.5% |
| Likums un kārtība | 0.0% | 5.6% | 4.8–6.5% | 4.6–6.8% | 4.4–7.0% | 4.0–7.5% |
| Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.6–5.1% | 3.4–5.4% | 3.2–5.6% | 3.0–6.0% |
| Latvijas Krievu savienība | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.3–5.2% | 3.1–5.4% | 2.8–5.8% |
| Politiskā partija „KPV LV” | 14.2% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA | 8 | 20 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 17–23 | 16–24 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” | 23 | 18 | 17–20 | 16–22 | 16–22 | 15–23 |
| Attīstībai/Par! | 13 | 14 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 11–16 | 10–17 |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” | 13 | 14 | 13–16 | 11–17 | 11–17 | 10–17 |
| Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 11 | 12 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 10–16 |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija | 16 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–13 |
| PROGRESĪVIE | 0 | 7 | 7–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 0–10 |
| Likums un kārtība | 0 | 7 | 0–7 | 0–8 | 0–8 | 0–9 |
| Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība | 0 | 0 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Latvijas Krievu savienība | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–6 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| Politiskā partija „KPV LV” | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā VIENOTĪBA page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 8% | 98.7% | |
| 18 | 18% | 91% | |
| 19 | 19% | 73% | |
| 20 | 25% | 54% | Median |
| 21 | 12% | 28% | |
| 22 | 8% | 17% | |
| 23 | 7% | 9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa”
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 9% | 99.4% | |
| 17 | 19% | 90% | |
| 18 | 34% | 71% | Median |
| 19 | 12% | 38% | |
| 20 | 16% | 25% | |
| 21 | 3% | 9% | |
| 22 | 4% | 6% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Attīstībai/Par!
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Attīstībai/Par! page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 11 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 12 | 2% | 97% | |
| 13 | 6% | 95% | Last Result |
| 14 | 54% | 89% | Median |
| 15 | 20% | 36% | |
| 16 | 15% | 16% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK”
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 11 | 5% | 99.3% | |
| 12 | 4% | 94% | |
| 13 | 27% | 90% | Last Result |
| 14 | 43% | 63% | Median |
| 15 | 7% | 20% | |
| 16 | 7% | 13% | |
| 17 | 6% | 6% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 11 | 39% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 12 | 27% | 61% | Median |
| 13 | 28% | 34% | |
| 14 | 3% | 7% | |
| 15 | 3% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā konservatīvā partija page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 42% | 100% | |
| 8 | 15% | 58% | Median |
| 9 | 37% | 43% | |
| 10 | 3% | 6% | |
| 11 | 2% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PROGRESĪVIE
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PROGRESĪVIE page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98% | |
| 5 | 0% | 98% | |
| 6 | 7% | 98% | |
| 7 | 66% | 91% | Median |
| 8 | 20% | 25% | |
| 9 | 4% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Likums un kārtība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Likums un kārtība page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 75% | |
| 2 | 0% | 75% | |
| 3 | 0% | 75% | |
| 4 | 0% | 75% | |
| 5 | 3% | 75% | |
| 6 | 17% | 72% | |
| 7 | 46% | 54% | Median |
| 8 | 7% | 8% | |
| 9 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 86% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 14% | |
| 2 | 0% | 14% | |
| 3 | 0% | 14% | |
| 4 | 0% | 14% | |
| 5 | 0% | 14% | |
| 6 | 14% | 14% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Latvijas Krievu savienība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Krievu savienība page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 7% | |
| 5 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 6 | 4% | 7% | |
| 7 | 2% | 3% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Politiskā partija „KPV LV”
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Politiskā partija „KPV LV” page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Attīstībai/Par! – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija | 61 | 68 | 100% | 64–72 | 62–74 | 61–75 | 59–76 |
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Attīstībai/Par! – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 45 | 60 | 99.9% | 56–64 | 55–66 | 54–66 | 52–67 |
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Attīstībai/Par! – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija | 50 | 55 | 97% | 52–60 | 51–61 | 50–63 | 48–63 |
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Attīstībai/Par! – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Politiskā partija „KPV LV” | 66 | 55 | 97% | 52–60 | 51–61 | 50–63 | 48–63 |
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija | 48 | 54 | 90% | 50–58 | 49–59 | 48–61 | 46–61 |
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Attīstībai/Par! – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Politiskā partija „KPV LV” | 50 | 48 | 12% | 44–52 | 43–54 | 43–54 | 41–54 |
| Attīstībai/Par! – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija | 53 | 48 | 16% | 46–52 | 44–52 | 44–53 | 42–55 |
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 32 | 46 | 8% | 42–49 | 41–51 | 40–52 | 39–52 |
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Politiskā partija „KPV LV” | 53 | 41 | 0% | 39–45 | 37–47 | 36–49 | 35–49 |
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Attīstībai/Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Politiskā partija „KPV LV” | 53 | 42 | 0% | 39–46 | 38–46 | 38–47 | 35–49 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai/Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija | 52 | 41 | 0% | 38–44 | 37–47 | 37–47 | 35–48 |
| Attīstībai/Par! – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 37 | 40 | 0% | 38–43 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 35–46 |
| Attīstībai/Par! – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Politiskā partija „KPV LV” | 58 | 36 | 0% | 34–40 | 33–40 | 32–40 | 31–43 |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija | 40 | 34 | 0% | 32–36 | 31–38 | 30–38 | 29–40 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai/Par! | 36 | 32 | 0% | 30–35 | 30–37 | 29–38 | 27–39 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Politiskā partija „KPV LV” | 50 | 30 | 0% | 28–33 | 28–34 | 27–34 | 26–37 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” – Politiskā partija „KPV LV” | 39 | 18 | 0% | 17–20 | 16–22 | 16–22 | 15–23 |
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Attīstībai/Par! – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 61 | 1.4% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 62 | 3% | 97% | |
| 63 | 2% | 94% | |
| 64 | 3% | 92% | |
| 65 | 4% | 89% | |
| 66 | 8% | 85% | |
| 67 | 16% | 77% | |
| 68 | 26% | 61% | Median |
| 69 | 7% | 35% | |
| 70 | 12% | 28% | |
| 71 | 4% | 16% | |
| 72 | 2% | 12% | |
| 73 | 3% | 10% | |
| 74 | 2% | 7% | |
| 75 | 4% | 5% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Attīstībai/Par! – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 52 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 54 | 3% | 98% | |
| 55 | 3% | 95% | |
| 56 | 5% | 92% | |
| 57 | 4% | 87% | |
| 58 | 8% | 83% | |
| 59 | 18% | 76% | |
| 60 | 9% | 58% | Median |
| 61 | 33% | 48% | |
| 62 | 2% | 15% | |
| 63 | 1.1% | 13% | |
| 64 | 3% | 12% | |
| 65 | 2% | 9% | |
| 66 | 6% | 7% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Attīstībai/Par! – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 50 | 1.4% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 51 | 5% | 97% | Majority |
| 52 | 3% | 92% | |
| 53 | 5% | 89% | |
| 54 | 13% | 85% | |
| 55 | 22% | 72% | |
| 56 | 5% | 50% | Median |
| 57 | 16% | 45% | |
| 58 | 13% | 29% | |
| 59 | 4% | 16% | |
| 60 | 3% | 12% | |
| 61 | 3% | 8% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 63 | 4% | 4% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Attīstībai/Par! – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Politiskā partija „KPV LV”

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 50 | 1.4% | 98.6% | |
| 51 | 5% | 97% | Majority |
| 52 | 3% | 92% | |
| 53 | 5% | 89% | |
| 54 | 13% | 85% | |
| 55 | 22% | 72% | |
| 56 | 5% | 50% | Median |
| 57 | 16% | 45% | |
| 58 | 13% | 29% | |
| 59 | 4% | 16% | |
| 60 | 3% | 12% | |
| 61 | 3% | 8% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 63 | 4% | 4% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 48 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 49 | 3% | 95% | |
| 50 | 3% | 93% | |
| 51 | 3% | 90% | Majority |
| 52 | 11% | 87% | |
| 53 | 23% | 76% | |
| 54 | 26% | 53% | Median |
| 55 | 6% | 26% | |
| 56 | 8% | 20% | |
| 57 | 0.9% | 12% | |
| 58 | 5% | 11% | |
| 59 | 2% | 6% | |
| 60 | 2% | 5% | |
| 61 | 3% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Attīstībai/Par! – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Politiskā partija „KPV LV”

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 43 | 4% | 98% | |
| 44 | 5% | 94% | |
| 45 | 7% | 89% | |
| 46 | 10% | 82% | |
| 47 | 16% | 72% | |
| 48 | 20% | 56% | Median |
| 49 | 10% | 36% | |
| 50 | 15% | 27% | Last Result |
| 51 | 1.3% | 12% | Majority |
| 52 | 2% | 11% | |
| 53 | 3% | 9% | |
| 54 | 6% | 6% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Attīstībai/Par! – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 44 | 4% | 98% | |
| 45 | 4% | 94% | |
| 46 | 9% | 90% | |
| 47 | 10% | 82% | |
| 48 | 31% | 71% | Median |
| 49 | 17% | 41% | |
| 50 | 8% | 24% | |
| 51 | 3% | 16% | Majority |
| 52 | 9% | 13% | |
| 53 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 54 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 40 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 41 | 3% | 97% | |
| 42 | 5% | 94% | |
| 43 | 7% | 89% | |
| 44 | 8% | 83% | |
| 45 | 23% | 74% | |
| 46 | 22% | 51% | Median |
| 47 | 14% | 29% | |
| 48 | 6% | 16% | |
| 49 | 0.8% | 10% | |
| 50 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 51 | 5% | 8% | Majority |
| 52 | 3% | 3% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Politiskā partija „KPV LV”

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 36 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 37 | 3% | 97% | |
| 38 | 4% | 94% | |
| 39 | 4% | 91% | |
| 40 | 19% | 86% | |
| 41 | 18% | 67% | |
| 42 | 11% | 49% | Median |
| 43 | 21% | 38% | |
| 44 | 7% | 17% | |
| 45 | 3% | 10% | |
| 46 | 2% | 8% | |
| 47 | 2% | 6% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 49 | 3% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Attīstībai/Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Politiskā partija „KPV LV”

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 37 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 38 | 4% | 98% | |
| 39 | 4% | 94% | |
| 40 | 14% | 89% | |
| 41 | 20% | 76% | |
| 42 | 15% | 55% | Median |
| 43 | 9% | 40% | |
| 44 | 12% | 31% | |
| 45 | 9% | 19% | |
| 46 | 7% | 10% | |
| 47 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 48 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 49 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai/Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 36 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 37 | 4% | 98% | |
| 38 | 6% | 94% | |
| 39 | 20% | 88% | |
| 40 | 13% | 68% | Median |
| 41 | 23% | 55% | |
| 42 | 13% | 33% | |
| 43 | 7% | 19% | |
| 44 | 4% | 12% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 8% | |
| 46 | 2% | 7% | |
| 47 | 5% | 5% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Attīstībai/Par! – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 36 | 3% | 98% | |
| 37 | 4% | 95% | Last Result |
| 38 | 9% | 92% | |
| 39 | 14% | 83% | |
| 40 | 21% | 69% | Median |
| 41 | 30% | 48% | |
| 42 | 5% | 18% | |
| 43 | 8% | 13% | |
| 44 | 2% | 5% | |
| 45 | 2% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Attīstībai/Par! – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Politiskā partija „KPV LV”

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 33 | 4% | 96% | |
| 34 | 7% | 92% | |
| 35 | 21% | 84% | |
| 36 | 18% | 63% | Median |
| 37 | 25% | 46% | |
| 38 | 6% | 21% | |
| 39 | 4% | 15% | |
| 40 | 9% | 11% | |
| 41 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 31 | 7% | 97% | |
| 32 | 16% | 90% | |
| 33 | 10% | 74% | |
| 34 | 25% | 64% | Median |
| 35 | 16% | 39% | |
| 36 | 13% | 22% | |
| 37 | 2% | 9% | |
| 38 | 4% | 6% | |
| 39 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 40 | 1.2% | 1.3% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai/Par!

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 29 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 30 | 9% | 97% | |
| 31 | 5% | 87% | |
| 32 | 38% | 82% | Median |
| 33 | 12% | 43% | |
| 34 | 16% | 31% | |
| 35 | 6% | 16% | |
| 36 | 3% | 10% | Last Result |
| 37 | 2% | 6% | |
| 38 | 4% | 5% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Politiskā partija „KPV LV”

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 28 | 14% | 95% | |
| 29 | 15% | 81% | |
| 30 | 19% | 66% | Median |
| 31 | 14% | 47% | |
| 32 | 19% | 33% | |
| 33 | 6% | 14% | |
| 34 | 6% | 8% | |
| 35 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” – Politiskā partija „KPV LV”

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 9% | 99.4% | |
| 17 | 19% | 90% | |
| 18 | 34% | 71% | Median |
| 19 | 12% | 38% | |
| 20 | 16% | 25% | |
| 21 | 3% | 9% | |
| 22 | 4% | 6% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Factum Interactive
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 26–30 April 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1170
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.06%