PROGRESĪVIE

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 2.6% (General Election of 6 October 2018)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 8.3% 7.1–9.4% 6.9–9.6% 6.7–9.9% 6.3–10.3%
1–30 September 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 7.6% 6.9–8.5% 6.7–8.7% 6.5–8.9% 6.1–9.4%
15–20 September 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 8.8% 8.0–9.6% 7.8–9.9% 7.7–10.1% 7.3–10.5%
4–6 September 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 7.3% 6.5–8.3% 6.3–8.6% 6.1–8.8% 5.7–9.3%
1–31 August 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 8.8% 8.0–9.7% 7.8–10.0% 7.6–10.2% 7.2–10.7%
16–21 August 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 7.5% 6.5–8.6% 6.3–8.9% 6.0–9.2% 5.6–9.8%
3–7 August 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 6.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 July 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 8.1% 7.3–9.0% 7.1–9.2% 6.9–9.4% 6.6–9.9%
20–24 July 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 6.4% 5.6–7.4% 5.3–7.7% 5.1–8.0% 4.8–8.5%
6–10 July 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 6.8% 5.8–8.0% 5.5–8.3% 5.3–8.6% 4.8–9.3%
1–30 June 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 9.4% 8.6–10.4% 8.3–10.6% 8.1–10.9% 7.8–11.3%
27–31 May 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 6.9% 6.0–7.9% 5.7–8.2% 5.5–8.5% 5.1–9.0%
13–24 May 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 7.7% 7.0–8.6% 6.8–8.8% 6.6–9.0% 6.2–9.5%
22 April–2 May 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 7.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–29 April 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 5.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 March 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 8.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
29–31 March 2022 Factum Interactive 5.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–28 February 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 6.7% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.8% 5.7–8.0% 5.3–8.4%
23–28 February 2022 Factum Interactive 6.5% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.3–8.0% 4.9–8.4%
1 January–2 February 2022 Factum Interactive 7.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 January 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 5.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 December 2021 SKDS 6.5% 5.8–7.3% 5.6–7.5% 5.4–7.7% 5.1–8.1%
1–31 December 2021 Factum Interactive 6.6% 5.8–7.5% 5.6–7.8% 5.4–8.0% 5.1–8.5%
1–30 November 2021 Factum Interactive 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.7–7.4% 4.5–7.7% 4.1–8.3%
8–29 November 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 6.9% 6.2–7.7% 6.0–7.9% 5.8–8.1% 5.5–8.6%
1–31 October 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 5.3% 4.4–6.4% 4.2–6.7% 4.0–7.0% 3.6–7.6%
1–31 October 2021 Factum Interactive 6.4% 5.7–7.2% 5.5–7.4% 5.4–7.6% 5.1–8.0%
1 September–1 October 2021 Factum Interactive 5.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–30 September 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 5.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 August 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 6.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
27–31 August 2021 Factum Interactive 5.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 July 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.2–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.8–6.5%
27–31 July 2021 Factum Interactive 6.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–30 June 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 6.9% 6.2–7.7% 6.0–8.0% 5.8–8.2% 5.5–8.6%
1–31 May 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 6.7% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.7% 5.6–7.9% 5.3–8.3%
26–31 May 2021 Factum Interactive 4.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.6–6.6% 3.4–7.0% 3.0–7.7%
1–30 April 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 7.4% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1% 5.9–9.4% 5.4–10.1%
26–30 April 2021 Factum Interactive 6.4% 5.6–7.4% 5.3–7.7% 5.1–8.0% 4.8–8.5%
9–19 April 2021 Latvijas Fakti 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.1–7.0% 3.8–7.5%
1–31 March 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 7.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 March 2021 Latvijas Fakti 5.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–30 March 2021 Factum Interactive 5.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–28 February 2021 Latvijas Fakti 5.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–28 February 2021 Factum Interactive 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
28–31 January 2021 Factum Interactive 6.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 December 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 7.6% 6.5–8.8% 6.2–9.2% 6.0–9.5% 5.5–10.1%
1–17 December 2020 Factum Interactive 8.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–30 November 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 5.0% 4.2–6.2% 3.9–6.5% 3.7–6.8% 3.4–7.3%
11–30 November 2020 Factum Interactive 6.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–30 October 2020 Factum Interactive 6.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–20 October 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 5.8% 4.9–7.0% 4.7–7.3% 4.5–7.6% 4.1–8.2%
29 September–4 October 2020 Factum Interactive 7.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11–21 September 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 5.1% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.4% 3.8–6.7% 3.4–7.3%
1–31 August 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 2.5% 1.9–3.2% 1.8–3.5% 1.6–3.7% 1.4–4.1%
1–24 August 2020 Factum Interactive 5.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–20 August 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.5% 1.6–3.7% 1.4–4.1%
1–31 July 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 2.1% 1.6–2.9% 1.5–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
8–31 July 2020 Factum Interactive 7.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–30 June 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 3.3% 2.4–4.6% 2.2–5.0% 2.0–5.3% 1.6–6.0%
1–30 June 2020 Factum Interactive 7.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
23 May–2 June 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 3.1% 2.2–4.4% 2.0–4.7% 1.8–5.1% 1.5–5.8%
18–31 May 2020 Factum Interactive 7.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–26 April 2020 Factum Interactive 6.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 March 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.0–3.8% 1.9–4.1% 1.6–4.5%
4–28 March 2020 Factum Interactive 7.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
24–28 February 2020 Factum Interactive 5.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–18 February 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 4.4% 3.6–5.4% 3.4–5.7% 3.2–5.9% 2.9–6.4%
28 January–1 February 2020 Factum Interactive 6.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 January 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 3.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
18–31 December 2019 Factum Interactive 5.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
30 November–12 December 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 4.4% 3.6–5.5% 3.4–5.8% 3.2–6.1% 2.9–6.6%
21–24 November 2019 Factum Interactive 6.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–12 November 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 3.8% 3.1–4.8% 2.9–5.1% 2.8–5.3% 2.5–5.8%
15–22 October 2019 Factum Interactive 5.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–16 October 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 5.0% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.3% 3.7–6.6% 3.4–7.1%
27–30 September 2019 Factum Interactive 4.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
6–18 September 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 3.4% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.6% 2.4–4.9% 2.1–5.3%
1–31 August 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 3.2% 2.6–4.2% 2.4–4.5% 2.2–4.7% 2.0–5.2%
27–30 August 2019 Factum Interactive 3.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 July 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 3.6% 2.9–4.6% 2.7–4.9% 2.5–5.1% 2.2–5.6%
22–29 July 2019 Factum Interactive 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–30 June 2019 Factum Interactive 5.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–17 June 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 4.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 May 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 2.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–28 May 2019 Factum Interactive 7.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–21 May 2019 Berg Research
jauns.lv		 4.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–30 April 2019 Factum Interactive 6.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–27 April 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 2.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–22 April 2019 Latvijas Fakti 3.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–14 April 2019 Factum Interactive 6.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26 March–5 April 2019 Factum Interactive 6.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 March 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 March 2019 Factum Interactive 5.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3–18 March 2019 Latvijas Fakti 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–28 February 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 4.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11–23 January 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–12 December 2018 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 3.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3–15 November 2018 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 2.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
13–23 October 2018 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 2.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for PROGRESĪVIE.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2.5–3.5% 0% 100% Last Result
3.5–4.5% 0% 100%  
4.5–5.5% 0% 100%  
5.5–6.5% 2% 100%  
6.5–7.5% 21% 98%  
7.5–8.5% 40% 78% Median
8.5–9.5% 31% 37%  
9.5–10.5% 6% 6%  
10.5–11.5% 0.2% 0.2%  
11.5–12.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 6 October 2018)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 11 9–12 8–12 8–12 8–13
1–30 September 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 12 10–12 9–12 9–12 8–12
15–20 September 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 11 8–12 8–12 8–12 8–14
4–6 September 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 8 8 8 8 7–10
1–31 August 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 11 9–11 8–12 8–12 8–13
16–21 August 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 8 8–10 8–10 7–10 7–10
3–7 August 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		          
1–31 July 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 8 8–10 8–10 8–11 8–13
20–24 July 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 8 7–9 7–9 0–9 0–10
6–10 July 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 8 7–9 7–11 7–11 0–11
1–30 June 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 11 10–12 10–13 10–13 8–13
27–31 May 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 7 7–8 7–9 7–9 0–10
13–24 May 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 9 8–11 8–11 7–12 7–12
22 April–2 May 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
26–29 April 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		          
1–31 March 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
29–31 March 2022 Factum Interactive          
1–28 February 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 8 7–8 7–9 7–9 7–11
23–28 February 2022 Factum Interactive 8 7–9 7–9 7–10 7–11
1 January–2 February 2022 Factum Interactive          
1–31 January 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
1–31 December 2021 SKDS 7 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–9
1–31 December 2021 Factum Interactive 9 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
1–30 November 2021 Factum Interactive 7 0–9 0–9 0–9 0–11
8–29 November 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 8 7–8 7–8 7–9 7–11
1–31 October 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 7 0–7 0–7 0–8 0–8
1–31 October 2021 Factum Interactive 7 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–10
1 September–1 October 2021 Factum Interactive          
1–30 September 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
1–31 August 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
27–31 August 2021 Factum Interactive          
1–31 July 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 0 0–7 0–7 0–7 0–7
27–31 July 2021 Factum Interactive          
1–30 June 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 7 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–9
1–31 May 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 7 7 7–8 6–8 0–8
26–31 May 2021 Factum Interactive 0 0–7 0–7 0–8 0–8
1–30 April 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
26–30 April 2021 Factum Interactive 7 7–8 6–9 6–9 0–10
9–19 April 2021 Latvijas Fakti 6 0–7 0–7 0–7 0–8
1–31 March 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
1–31 March 2021 Latvijas Fakti          
26–30 March 2021 Factum Interactive          
1–28 February 2021 Latvijas Fakti          
1–28 February 2021 Factum Interactive 9 8–9 8–9 7–9 7–9
28–31 January 2021 Factum Interactive          
1–31 December 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 8 7–8 7–9 7–10 6–11
1–17 December 2020 Factum Interactive          
1–30 November 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 0 0–7 0–7 0–7 0–7
11–30 November 2020 Factum Interactive          
26–30 October 2020 Factum Interactive          
9–20 October 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 7 0–7 0–7 0–8 0–8
29 September–4 October 2020 Factum Interactive          
11–21 September 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 5 0–7 0–7 0–7 0–8
1–31 August 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 0 0 0 0 0
1–24 August 2020 Factum Interactive          
7–20 August 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 0 0 0 0 0
1–31 July 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 0 0 0 0 0
8–31 July 2020 Factum Interactive          
1–30 June 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 0 0 0 0–6 0–7
1–30 June 2020 Factum Interactive          
23 May–2 June 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 0 0 0 0–5 0–7
18–31 May 2020 Factum Interactive          
7–26 April 2020 Factum Interactive          
1–31 March 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 0 0 0 0 0
4–28 March 2020 Factum Interactive          
24–28 February 2020 Factum Interactive          
7–18 February 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 0 0–6 0–7 0–7 0–7
28 January–1 February 2020 Factum Interactive          
1–31 January 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
18–31 December 2019 Factum Interactive          
30 November–12 December 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 0 0 0 0–7 0–7
21–24 November 2019 Factum Interactive          
2–12 November 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 0 0 0 0–5 0–7
15–22 October 2019 Factum Interactive          
5–16 October 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 6 0–7 0–7 0–7 0–7
27–30 September 2019 Factum Interactive          
6–18 September 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 0 0 0 0 0
1–31 August 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 0 0 0 0 0–5
27–30 August 2019 Factum Interactive          
1–31 July 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 0 0 0 0 0–6
22–29 July 2019 Factum Interactive          
26–30 June 2019 Factum Interactive          
7–17 June 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
1–31 May 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
1–28 May 2019 Factum Interactive          
1–21 May 2019 Berg Research
jauns.lv		          
1–30 April 2019 Factum Interactive          
1–27 April 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
12–22 April 2019 Latvijas Fakti          
10–14 April 2019 Factum Interactive          
26 March–5 April 2019 Factum Interactive          
1–31 March 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
1–31 March 2019 Factum Interactive          
3–18 March 2019 Latvijas Fakti          
1–28 February 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
11–23 January 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
1–12 December 2018 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
3–15 November 2018 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
13–23 October 2018 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for PROGRESĪVIE.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 8% 100%  
9 6% 92%  
10 14% 85%  
11 22% 71% Median
12 48% 49%  
13 0.6% 0.9%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%