Jaunā VIENOTĪBA

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 6.7% (General Election of 6 October 2018)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 22.1% 20.6–23.5% 20.2–23.8% 19.9–24.2% 19.3–24.8%
1–30 September 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 21.4% 20.2–22.7% 19.9–23.1% 19.6–23.4% 19.0–24.0%
15–20 September 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 22.6% 21.5–23.8% 21.2–24.1% 20.9–24.4% 20.4–25.0%
4–6 September 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 21.9% 20.5–23.4% 20.1–23.8% 19.8–24.1% 19.2–24.9%
1–31 August 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 15.1% 14.1–16.2% 13.8–16.5% 13.5–16.8% 13.1–17.4%
16–21 August 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 20.7% 19.2–22.4% 18.8–22.9% 18.4–23.3% 17.7–24.1%
3–7 August 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 21.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 July 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 15.7% 14.6–16.8% 14.3–17.1% 14.1–17.4% 13.6–18.0%
20–24 July 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 20.5% 19.0–22.1% 18.6–22.5% 18.3–22.9% 17.6–23.7%
6–10 July 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 20.3% 18.6–22.1% 18.1–22.6% 17.7–23.1% 16.9–24.0%
1–30 June 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 18.2% 17.1–19.4% 16.8–19.8% 16.5–20.1% 16.0–20.7%
27–31 May 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 20.0% 18.5–21.6% 18.1–22.0% 17.7–22.4% 17.0–23.2%
13–24 May 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 17.6% 16.5–18.8% 16.2–19.2% 16.0–19.5% 15.4–20.1%
22 April–2 May 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 18.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–29 April 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 19.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 March 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 16.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
29–31 March 2022 Factum Interactive 17.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–28 February 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 14.1% 13.1–15.2% 12.8–15.5% 12.6–15.8% 12.1–16.3%
23–28 February 2022 Factum Interactive 16.3% 15.1–17.7% 14.7–18.1% 14.4–18.4% 13.8–19.1%
1 January–2 February 2022 Factum Interactive 16.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 January 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 13.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 December 2021 SKDS 13.6% 12.6–14.7% 12.3–15.0% 12.1–15.2% 11.6–15.8%
1–31 December 2021 Factum Interactive 16.9% 15.7–18.2% 15.3–18.6% 15.0–18.9% 14.4–19.6%
1–30 November 2021 Factum Interactive 16.9% 15.3–18.6% 14.9–19.1% 14.5–19.5% 13.8–20.4%
8–29 November 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 14.7% 13.7–15.8% 13.4–16.1% 13.1–16.4% 12.7–16.9%
1–31 October 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 12.8% 11.5–14.4% 11.1–14.9% 10.7–15.3% 10.1–16.1%
1–31 October 2021 Factum Interactive 15.9% 14.8–17.0% 14.5–17.3% 14.3–17.6% 13.8–18.2%
1 September–1 October 2021 Factum Interactive 15.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–30 September 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 13.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 August 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 11.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
27–31 August 2021 Factum Interactive 16.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 July 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 12.8% 11.9–13.9% 11.6–14.2% 11.4–14.5% 10.9–15.0%
27–31 July 2021 Factum Interactive 16.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–30 June 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 11.5% 10.6–12.5% 10.3–12.8% 10.1–13.1% 9.7–13.6%
1–31 May 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 11.9% 11.0–12.9% 10.7–13.2% 10.5–13.5% 10.1–14.0%
26–31 May 2021 Factum Interactive 16.8% 15.0–19.0% 14.4–19.6% 14.0–20.1% 13.2–21.2%
1–30 April 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 11.6% 10.3–13.2% 10.0–13.6% 9.6–14.0% 9.0–14.8%
26–30 April 2021 Factum Interactive 16.8% 15.4–18.2% 15.0–18.6% 14.7–19.0% 14.1–19.7%
9–19 April 2021 Latvijas Fakti 12.8% 11.5–14.2% 11.1–14.6% 10.8–15.0% 10.3–15.7%
1–31 March 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 11.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 March 2021 Latvijas Fakti 12.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–30 March 2021 Factum Interactive 15.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–28 February 2021 Latvijas Fakti 11.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–28 February 2021 Factum Interactive 15.1% 14.1–16.2% 13.8–16.6% 13.6–16.8% 13.1–17.4%
28–31 January 2021 Factum Interactive 13.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 December 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 8.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.6–9.6% 6.4–10.0% 5.9–10.6%
1–17 December 2020 Factum Interactive 13.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–30 November 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 8.8% 7.6–10.2% 7.3–10.5% 7.0–10.9% 6.5–11.6%
11–30 November 2020 Factum Interactive 13.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–30 October 2020 Factum Interactive 13.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–20 October 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 9.4% 8.3–10.8% 8.0–11.2% 7.7–11.5% 7.2–12.2%
29 September–4 October 2020 Factum Interactive 15.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11–21 September 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 11.1% 9.9–12.6% 9.5–13.0% 9.2–13.4% 8.7–14.1%
1–31 August 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 11.9% 10.6–13.3% 10.3–13.7% 10.0–14.1% 9.4–14.8%
1–24 August 2020 Factum Interactive 15.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–20 August 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 11.7% 10.4–13.2% 10.0–13.6% 9.7–13.9% 9.1–14.7%
1–31 July 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 5.8% 4.9–6.9% 4.6–7.2% 4.4–7.5% 4.0–8.1%
8–31 July 2020 Factum Interactive 16.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–30 June 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 9.8% 8.2–11.8% 7.8–12.3% 7.4–12.8% 6.7–13.9%
1–30 June 2020 Factum Interactive 17.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
23 May–2 June 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 12.0% 10.3–14.2% 9.8–14.8% 9.3–15.3% 8.6–16.4%
18–31 May 2020 Factum Interactive 18.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–26 April 2020 Factum Interactive 15.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 March 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 10.9% 9.6–12.3% 9.3–12.7% 9.0–13.1% 8.4–13.8%
4–28 March 2020 Factum Interactive 13.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
24–28 February 2020 Factum Interactive 14.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–18 February 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 12.6% 11.3–14.1% 10.9–14.6% 10.6–15.0% 10.0–15.7%
28 January–1 February 2020 Factum Interactive 16.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 January 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 10.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
18–31 December 2019 Factum Interactive 13.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
30 November–12 December 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 12.5% 11.1–14.1% 10.7–14.5% 10.4–14.9% 9.8–15.7%
21–24 November 2019 Factum Interactive 15.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–12 November 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 11.8% 10.5–13.3% 10.1–13.7% 9.8–14.1% 9.2–14.8%
15–22 October 2019 Factum Interactive 14.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–16 October 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 11.4% 10.2–12.9% 9.8–13.3% 9.5–13.7% 9.0–14.4%
27–30 September 2019 Factum Interactive 16.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
6–18 September 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 13.4% 12.1–15.0% 11.7–15.5% 11.4–15.8% 10.7–16.6%
1–31 August 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 13.9% 12.5–15.6% 12.1–16.0% 11.7–16.4% 11.1–17.3%
27–30 August 2019 Factum Interactive 16.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 July 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 14.6% 13.2–16.3% 12.8–16.8% 12.4–17.2% 11.7–18.0%
22–29 July 2019 Factum Interactive 14.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–30 June 2019 Factum Interactive 16.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–17 June 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 16.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 May 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 9.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–28 May 2019 Factum Interactive 15.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–21 May 2019 Berg Research
jauns.lv		 20.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–30 April 2019 Factum Interactive 9.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–27 April 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 8.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–22 April 2019 Latvijas Fakti 12.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–14 April 2019 Factum Interactive 15.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26 March–5 April 2019 Factum Interactive 15.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 March 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 9.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 March 2019 Factum Interactive 11.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3–18 March 2019 Latvijas Fakti 26.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–28 February 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 10.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11–23 January 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 6.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–12 December 2018 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 5.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3–15 November 2018 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 6.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
13–23 October 2018 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 5.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Jaunā VIENOTĪBA.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6.5–7.5% 0% 100% Last Result
7.5–8.5% 0% 100%  
8.5–9.5% 0% 100%  
9.5–10.5% 0% 100%  
10.5–11.5% 0% 100%  
11.5–12.5% 0% 100%  
12.5–13.5% 0% 100%  
13.5–14.5% 0% 100%  
14.5–15.5% 0% 100%  
15.5–16.5% 0% 100%  
16.5–17.5% 0% 100%  
17.5–18.5% 0% 100%  
18.5–19.5% 1.1% 100%  
19.5–20.5% 8% 98.9%  
20.5–21.5% 24% 91%  
21.5–22.5% 34% 67% Median
22.5–23.5% 24% 33%  
23.5–24.5% 8% 9%  
24.5–25.5% 0.9% 0.9%  
25.5–26.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 8 seats (General Election of 6 October 2018)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 28 25–30 25–30 23–30 23–32
1–30 September 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 30 28–30 28–30 27–31 25–33
15–20 September 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 26 25–27 23–28 23–28 23–31
4–6 September 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 27 27 24–27 21–27 21–27
1–31 August 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 17 17–19 17–19 17–20 17–22
16–21 August 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 22 19–26 19–26 19–26 19–27
3–7 August 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		          
1–31 July 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 18 18 18–19 18–19 15–21
20–24 July 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 26 20–27 20–27 20–28 20–33
6–10 July 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 25 22–26 21–26 20–27 20–29
1–30 June 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 22 21–24 19–25 19–26 19–26
27–31 May 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		 24 21–24 21–26 20–27 19–28
13–24 May 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 22 19–23 19–24 19–25 18–26
22 April–2 May 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
26–29 April 2022 Factum Interactive
ReTV		          
1–31 March 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
29–31 March 2022 Factum Interactive          
1–28 February 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 18 15–18 15–19 15–19 14–20
23–28 February 2022 Factum Interactive 22 20–22 18–23 18–24 17–24
1 January–2 February 2022 Factum Interactive          
1–31 January 2022 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
1–31 December 2021 SKDS 16 15–18 15–18 14–18 13–19
1–31 December 2021 Factum Interactive 22 20–22 20–23 19–23 18–23
1–30 November 2021 Factum Interactive 20 17–23 17–25 17–25 16–26
8–29 November 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 18 16–20 16–20 15–21 14–21
1–31 October 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 15 14–18 12–18 12–19 11–21
1–31 October 2021 Factum Interactive 19 18–21 18–21 18–21 17–23
1 September–1 October 2021 Factum Interactive          
1–30 September 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
1–31 August 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
27–31 August 2021 Factum Interactive          
1–31 July 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 14 12–17 11–17 11–17 11–17
27–31 July 2021 Factum Interactive          
1–30 June 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 13 11–15 11–15 11–16 11–16
1–31 May 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 12 11–14 11–15 11–15 11–16
26–31 May 2021 Factum Interactive 19 17–20 17–22 15–23 15–26
1–30 April 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 11 10–13 10–14 10–16 8–16
26–30 April 2021 Factum Interactive 20 18–22 17–23 17–23 16–24
9–19 April 2021 Latvijas Fakti 15 13–17 11–17 11–17 11–18
1–31 March 2021 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
1–31 March 2021 Latvijas Fakti          
26–30 March 2021 Factum Interactive          
1–28 February 2021 Latvijas Fakti          
1–28 February 2021 Factum Interactive 20 18–20 18–20 17–20 16–20
28–31 January 2021 Factum Interactive          
1–31 December 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 9 8–10 8–11 7–11 7–11
1–17 December 2020 Factum Interactive          
1–30 November 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 9 8–11 8–11 8–11 7–11
11–30 November 2020 Factum Interactive          
26–30 October 2020 Factum Interactive          
9–20 October 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 11 8–11 8–11 8–12 8–13
29 September–4 October 2020 Factum Interactive          
11–21 September 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 12 11–14 11–14 11–15 10–17
1–31 August 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 13 11–15 11–15 11–15 11–17
1–24 August 2020 Factum Interactive          
7–20 August 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 12 11–15 11–15 11–16 11–17
1–31 July 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 13 12–17 0–18 0–18 0–19
8–31 July 2020 Factum Interactive          
1–30 June 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 11 10–12 8–13 8–15 8–16
1–30 June 2020 Factum Interactive          
23 May–2 June 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 14 11–17 11–18 11–18 9–18
18–31 May 2020 Factum Interactive          
7–26 April 2020 Factum Interactive          
1–31 March 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 11 11–14 11–14 10–14 10–16
4–28 March 2020 Factum Interactive          
24–28 February 2020 Factum Interactive          
7–18 February 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 14 11–16 11–17 11–17 11–18
28 January–1 February 2020 Factum Interactive          
1–31 January 2020 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
18–31 December 2019 Factum Interactive          
30 November–12 December 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 15 15–16 13–16 11–16 11–18
21–24 November 2019 Factum Interactive          
2–12 November 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 13 11–15 11–16 11–17 11–17
15–22 October 2019 Factum Interactive          
5–16 October 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 11 11–15 11–16 11–18 10–18
27–30 September 2019 Factum Interactive          
6–18 September 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 17 15–18 13–18 12–18 11–18
1–31 August 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 18 16–18 11–18 11–18 11–18
27–30 August 2019 Factum Interactive          
1–31 July 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		 17 13–18 13–19 13–19 12–21
22–29 July 2019 Factum Interactive          
26–30 June 2019 Factum Interactive          
7–17 June 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
1–31 May 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
1–28 May 2019 Factum Interactive          
1–21 May 2019 Berg Research
jauns.lv		          
1–30 April 2019 Factum Interactive          
1–27 April 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
12–22 April 2019 Latvijas Fakti          
10–14 April 2019 Factum Interactive          
26 March–5 April 2019 Factum Interactive          
1–31 March 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
1–31 March 2019 Factum Interactive          
3–18 March 2019 Latvijas Fakti          
1–28 February 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
11–23 January 2019 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
1–12 December 2018 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
3–15 November 2018 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          
13–23 October 2018 SKDS
Latvijas Televīzija		          

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Jaunā VIENOTĪBA.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 4% 100%  
24 0.7% 96%  
25 10% 96%  
26 16% 85%  
27 16% 69%  
28 19% 53% Median
29 4% 34%  
30 28% 30%  
31 1.4% 2%  
32 0.4% 0.8%  
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%