Opinion Poll by Factum Interactive, 6–10 July 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA 6.7% 20.3% 18.6–22.1% 18.1–22.6% 17.7–23.1% 16.9–24.0%
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” 11.0% 12.2% 10.9–13.8% 10.5–14.2% 10.2–14.6% 9.6–15.4%
Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” 19.8% 10.6% 9.3–12.1% 9.0–12.5% 8.7–12.8% 8.1–13.6%
Attīstībai/Par! 12.0% 9.0% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.7% 7.2–11.1% 6.7–11.8%
Latvija pirmajā vietā 0.0% 7.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1% 5.9–9.4% 5.4–10.1%
PROGRESĪVIE 2.6% 6.8% 5.8–8.0% 5.5–8.3% 5.3–8.6% 4.8–9.3%
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 9.9% 6.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.3–8.1% 5.0–8.4% 4.6–9.0%
Jaunā konservatīvā partija 13.6% 6.2% 5.2–7.4% 5.0–7.7% 4.7–8.0% 4.3–8.6%
Latvijas Krievu savienība 3.2% 5.5% 4.6–6.6% 4.3–6.9% 4.1–7.2% 3.7–7.8%
Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība 4.1% 3.6% 2.9–4.6% 2.7–4.8% 2.5–5.1% 2.3–5.6%
Stabilitātei! 0.0% 3.1% 2.5–4.1% 2.3–4.3% 2.2–4.5% 1.9–5.0%
Republika 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.3% 1.7–3.5% 1.6–3.7% 1.4–4.1%
Likums un kārtība 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–3.0% 1.5–3.2% 1.4–3.4% 1.2–3.9%
Suverēnā vara 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Nacionālā Savienība Taisnīgums 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.0% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA 8 25 22–26 21–26 20–27 20–29
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” 13 15 13–17 13–17 13–17 12–19
Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” 23 14 13–16 12–16 12–16 10–17
Attīstībai/Par! 13 12 10–14 7–15 7–15 7–15
Latvija pirmajā vietā 0 8 0–11 0–11 0–12 0–12
PROGRESĪVIE 0 8 7–9 7–11 7–11 0–11
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 11 8 6–10 0–11 0–11 0–11
Jaunā konservatīvā partija 16 7 7–9 0–9 0–9 0–9
Latvijas Krievu savienība 0 0 0–8 0–9 0–9 0–10
Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība 0 0 0 0 0 0–7
Stabilitātei! 0 0 0 0 0 0–5
Republika 0 0 0 0 0 0
Likums un kārtība 0 0 0 0 0 0
Suverēnā vara 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nacionālā Savienība Taisnīgums 0 0 0 0 0 0

Jaunā VIENOTĪBA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā VIENOTĪBA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.5% 100%  
20 3% 99.5%  
21 3% 97%  
22 9% 94%  
23 5% 85%  
24 28% 80%  
25 5% 52% Median
26 44% 47%  
27 1.2% 3%  
28 1.2% 2%  
29 0.5% 0.7%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK”

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.1% 99.9%  
12 0.5% 99.8%  
13 28% 99.3% Last Result
14 5% 71%  
15 30% 66% Median
16 12% 36%  
17 24% 25%  
18 0.6% 1.2%  
19 0.6% 0.6%  
20 0% 0%  

Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa”

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.7% 99.9%  
11 0.7% 99.2%  
12 6% 98%  
13 17% 93%  
14 30% 76% Median
15 32% 46%  
16 14% 15%  
17 0.5% 0.6%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Attīstībai/Par!

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Attīstībai/Par! page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 6% 100%  
8 0.5% 94%  
9 3% 94%  
10 16% 91%  
11 8% 75%  
12 24% 67% Median
13 31% 43% Last Result
14 2% 11%  
15 9% 9%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Latvija pirmajā vietā

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvija pirmajā vietā page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100% Last Result
1 0% 89%  
2 0% 89%  
3 0% 89%  
4 0% 89%  
5 0% 89%  
6 6% 89%  
7 23% 83%  
8 12% 61% Median
9 14% 49%  
10 8% 34%  
11 22% 26%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

PROGRESĪVIE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PROGRESĪVIE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.2%  
2 0% 99.2%  
3 0% 99.2%  
4 0% 99.2%  
5 0% 99.2%  
6 0.2% 99.2%  
7 21% 99.1%  
8 40% 78% Median
9 31% 38%  
10 1.1% 6%  
11 5% 5%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 0% 94%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 94%  
6 15% 94%  
7 25% 79%  
8 20% 54% Median
9 0.7% 34%  
10 28% 33%  
11 6% 6% Last Result
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Jaunā konservatīvā partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā konservatīvā partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 0% 94%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 94%  
6 0% 94%  
7 46% 94% Median
8 21% 49%  
9 27% 27%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Latvijas Krievu savienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Krievu savienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 36%  
2 0% 36%  
3 0% 36%  
4 0% 36%  
5 0% 36%  
6 0.5% 36%  
7 7% 35%  
8 21% 28%  
9 6% 7%  
10 0.8% 0.8%  
11 0% 0%  

Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.9% 0.9%  
8 0% 0%  

Stabilitātei!

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stabilitātei! page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.7%  
2 0% 0.7%  
3 0% 0.7%  
4 0% 0.7%  
5 0.6% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Republika

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Republika page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Likums un kārtība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Likums un kārtība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Suverēnā vara

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suverēnā vara page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Nacionālā Savienība Taisnīgums

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā Savienība Taisnīgums page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai/Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 61 68 100% 60–70 59–70 59–70 56–72
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai/Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 50 59 98.7% 54–63 51–63 51–63 48–65
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai/Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 45 61 98% 54–62 53–62 52–62 49–64
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 48 56 85% 49–59 47–59 46–59 45–62
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 32 48 13% 43–52 41–52 39–52 38–53
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai/Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 53 43 0% 38–46 34–46 33–46 33–46
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai/Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 37 36 0% 30–37 30–38 29–38 26–39
Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai/Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 52 34 0% 29–36 25–37 25–37 24–37
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 40 30 0% 25–33 23–34 21–34 21–35
Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai/Par! 36 27 0% 23–28 20–29 20–29 20–30

Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai/Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.7%  
57 1.1% 99.4%  
58 0.4% 98%  
59 5% 98%  
60 4% 93%  
61 0.5% 89% Last Result
62 6% 88%  
63 6% 83%  
64 0.9% 77%  
65 7% 76%  
66 8% 69%  
67 0.8% 61% Median
68 17% 60%  
69 25% 44%  
70 18% 19%  
71 0.4% 1.0%  
72 0.4% 0.6%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai/Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.4% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.5%  
49 0.2% 99.4%  
50 0.5% 99.2% Last Result
51 5% 98.7% Majority
52 0.9% 94%  
53 2% 93%  
54 2% 91%  
55 6% 88%  
56 1.0% 82%  
57 1.2% 81%  
58 24% 80%  
59 12% 55% Median
60 9% 43%  
61 11% 34%  
62 5% 23%  
63 18% 18%  
64 0% 0.6%  
65 0.5% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai/Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100% Last Result
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.7%  
50 1.0% 99.3%  
51 0.4% 98% Majority
52 1.0% 98%  
53 4% 97%  
54 10% 93%  
55 0.9% 83%  
56 3% 82%  
57 1.2% 79%  
58 12% 78%  
59 5% 66%  
60 5% 61% Median
61 32% 56%  
62 22% 24%  
63 2% 2%  
64 0.2% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.4%  
66 0% 0.3%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0% 99.9%  
44 0% 99.9%  
45 0.5% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.3%  
47 4% 97%  
48 2% 93% Last Result
49 6% 91%  
50 1.0% 86%  
51 8% 85% Majority
52 1.4% 77%  
53 4% 75%  
54 3% 71%  
55 2% 68% Median
56 29% 66%  
57 25% 37%  
58 0.7% 13%  
59 10% 12%  
60 0.7% 2%  
61 0.4% 0.9%  
62 0.4% 0.6%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100% Last Result
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.8%  
38 0.5% 99.8%  
39 2% 99.3%  
40 0.4% 97%  
41 6% 97%  
42 0.9% 91%  
43 9% 90%  
44 0.4% 81%  
45 3% 81%  
46 5% 78%  
47 10% 73%  
48 18% 62% Median
49 31% 45%  
50 0.9% 14%  
51 0.7% 13% Majority
52 11% 12%  
53 0.5% 1.0%  
54 0.2% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.3%  
56 0% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai/Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0.1% 99.8%  
33 4% 99.7%  
34 0.8% 95%  
35 0.8% 94%  
36 0.8% 94%  
37 0.9% 93%  
38 6% 92%  
39 14% 86%  
40 3% 72%  
41 0.2% 70%  
42 13% 69% Median
43 26% 56%  
44 8% 30%  
45 0.9% 22%  
46 21% 21%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai/Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0.5% 99.9%  
27 0.5% 99.4%  
28 1.1% 99.0%  
29 0.8% 98%  
30 13% 97%  
31 0.7% 84%  
32 6% 83%  
33 7% 77%  
34 1.2% 70%  
35 17% 68% Median
36 29% 51%  
37 16% 22% Last Result
38 4% 6%  
39 1.3% 2%  
40 0.1% 0.3%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai/Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 0.8% 99.6%  
25 4% 98.8%  
26 0.2% 95%  
27 1.2% 95%  
28 0.6% 93%  
29 6% 93%  
30 1.0% 87%  
31 7% 86%  
32 2% 78%  
33 11% 76% Median
34 21% 65%  
35 15% 44%  
36 20% 29%  
37 9% 9%  
38 0.1% 0.4%  
39 0% 0.2%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0% Last Result

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.3% 99.8%  
21 4% 99.6%  
22 0.1% 96%  
23 0.8% 96%  
24 0.4% 95%  
25 5% 94%  
26 3% 90%  
27 5% 87%  
28 3% 81%  
29 9% 78%  
30 23% 69% Median
31 2% 45%  
32 11% 43%  
33 27% 32%  
34 4% 5%  
35 0.9% 1.0%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0% Last Result

Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai/Par!

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9%  
20 7% 99.6%  
21 0.3% 93%  
22 1.4% 93%  
23 7% 91%  
24 4% 84%  
25 5% 81%  
26 18% 75% Median
27 32% 58%  
28 16% 26%  
29 8% 9%  
30 1.2% 1.4%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations