Opinion Poll by Factum Interactive, 20–24 July 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA 6.7% 20.5% 19.0–22.1% 18.6–22.5% 18.3–22.9% 17.6–23.7%
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” 11.0% 11.3% 10.2–12.6% 9.9–13.0% 9.6–13.3% 9.1–13.9%
Attīstībai/Par! 12.0% 10.7% 9.6–12.0% 9.3–12.3% 9.1–12.7% 8.6–13.3%
Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” 19.8% 10.3% 9.2–11.5% 8.9–11.9% 8.7–12.2% 8.2–12.8%
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 9.9% 6.8% 6.0–7.9% 5.7–8.2% 5.5–8.4% 5.1–9.0%
PROGRESĪVIE 2.6% 6.4% 5.6–7.4% 5.3–7.7% 5.1–8.0% 4.8–8.5%
Jaunā konservatīvā partija 13.6% 5.7% 4.9–6.7% 4.7–7.0% 4.5–7.2% 4.2–7.7%
Stabilitātei! 0.0% 5.3% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.5% 4.1–6.7% 3.8–7.2%
Latvija pirmajā vietā 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.2% 3.9–6.4% 3.6–6.9%
Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība 4.1% 4.9% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.1% 3.8–6.3% 3.5–6.8%
Latvijas Krievu savienība 3.2% 3.8% 3.2–4.6% 3.0–4.9% 2.9–5.1% 2.6–5.5%
Likums un kārtība 0.0% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.4–4.1% 2.3–4.3% 2.0–4.7%
Republika 0.0% 1.9% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.2%
Suverēnā vara 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.1% 0.7–2.4%
Nacionālā Savienība Taisnīgums 0.0% 0.3% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA 8 26 20–27 20–27 20–28 20–33
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” 13 13 13–14 13–15 12–17 12–18
Attīstībai/Par! 13 14 14 12–16 10–16 10–16
Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” 23 13 10–14 10–15 10–16 10–17
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 11 7 6–11 6–11 6–11 6–11
PROGRESĪVIE 0 8 7–9 7–9 0–9 0–10
Jaunā konservatīvā partija 16 7 0–7 0–8 0–9 0–9
Stabilitātei! 0 6 6–10 0–10 0–10 0–10
Latvija pirmajā vietā 0 5 0–7 0–7 0–7 0–8
Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība 0 0 0–6 0–6 0–7 0–7
Latvijas Krievu savienība 0 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–8
Likums un kārtība 0 0 0 0 0 0–5
Republika 0 0 0 0 0 0
Suverēnā vara 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nacionālā Savienība Taisnīgums 0 0 0 0 0 0

Jaunā VIENOTĪBA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā VIENOTĪBA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 31% 100%  
21 0.2% 69%  
22 0.3% 68%  
23 4% 68%  
24 1.1% 64%  
25 3% 63%  
26 17% 60% Median
27 38% 43%  
28 2% 5%  
29 0.5% 2%  
30 0.1% 2%  
31 0.6% 1.4%  
32 0% 0.8%  
33 0.7% 0.8%  
34 0% 0%  

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK”

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 3% 99.6%  
13 74% 97% Last Result, Median
14 15% 22%  
15 2% 7%  
16 1.2% 5%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.5% 0.6%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Attīstībai/Par!

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Attīstībai/Par! page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 3% 100%  
11 1.5% 97%  
12 0.5% 95%  
13 1.0% 95% Last Result
14 85% 94% Median
15 4% 9%  
16 5% 5%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa”

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 32% 100%  
11 0.1% 68%  
12 1.1% 68%  
13 36% 67% Median
14 22% 31%  
15 5% 9%  
16 3% 4%  
17 0.6% 0.9%  
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0% 99.7%  
5 0% 99.7%  
6 35% 99.7%  
7 41% 65% Median
8 0.2% 24%  
9 2% 24%  
10 5% 21%  
11 17% 17% Last Result
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

PROGRESĪVIE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PROGRESĪVIE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0.1% 96%  
7 7% 96%  
8 52% 89% Median
9 36% 36%  
10 0.7% 0.9%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Jaunā konservatīvā partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā konservatīvā partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 40% 100%  
1 0% 60%  
2 0% 60%  
3 0% 60%  
4 0% 60%  
5 0% 60%  
6 2% 60%  
7 50% 58% Median
8 4% 8%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Stabilitātei!

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stabilitātei! page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 0% 92%  
2 0% 92%  
3 0% 92%  
4 0% 92%  
5 0.5% 92%  
6 46% 92% Median
7 4% 46%  
8 4% 42%  
9 2% 38%  
10 36% 36%  
11 0% 0%  

Latvija pirmajā vietā

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvija pirmajā vietā page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 24% 100% Last Result
1 0% 76%  
2 0% 76%  
3 0% 76%  
4 0% 76%  
5 31% 76% Median
6 4% 45%  
7 40% 41%  
8 0.4% 0.6%  
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 40%  
2 0% 40%  
3 0% 40%  
4 0% 40%  
5 0% 40%  
6 37% 40%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0.3% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Latvijas Krievu savienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Krievu savienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 67% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 33%  
2 0% 33%  
3 0% 33%  
4 0% 33%  
5 31% 33%  
6 0.1% 2%  
7 0% 1.4%  
8 1.4% 1.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Likums un kārtība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Likums un kārtība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0% 0.6%  
4 0% 0.6%  
5 0.5% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Republika

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Republika page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Suverēnā vara

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suverēnā vara page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Nacionālā Savienība Taisnīgums

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā Savienība Taisnīgums page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai/Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 61 61 100% 60–72 60–72 60–73 59–78
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai/Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 45 61 100% 53–65 53–66 53–69 53–75
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai/Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 50 54 99.3% 54–61 54–63 54–65 49–67
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 48 47 29% 46–58 46–58 46–60 46–62
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 32 47 20% 39–51 39–52 39–53 39–59
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai/Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 53 40 0% 34–46 34–46 34–46 34–49
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai/Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 37 34 0% 33–39 33–39 31–41 29–45
Attīstībai/Par! – Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 52 31 0% 27–35 27–37 27–39 25–40
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 40 26 0% 20–32 20–32 20–33 20–34
Attīstībai/Par! – Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” 36 27 0% 24–29 24–30 24–31 23–32

Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai/Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0% 99.8%  
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 0.1% 99.6%  
59 0.2% 99.5%  
60 32% 99.4%  
61 36% 68% Last Result
62 0.3% 32%  
63 2% 32%  
64 0.3% 30%  
65 3% 29%  
66 2% 27%  
67 0.5% 24% Median
68 1.5% 24%  
69 2% 22%  
70 2% 21%  
71 1.0% 18%  
72 14% 17%  
73 0.8% 3%  
74 0.1% 2%  
75 0.1% 2%  
76 0.5% 2%  
77 1.3% 2%  
78 0.5% 0.5%  
79 0% 0%  

Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai/Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100% Last Result
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0.2% 100% Majority
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 32% 99.7%  
54 0% 68%  
55 2% 68%  
56 0.7% 66%  
57 0.2% 66%  
58 3% 65%  
59 1.3% 63%  
60 2% 61% Median
61 36% 59%  
62 2% 23%  
63 0.2% 21%  
64 1.2% 21%  
65 15% 20%  
66 0.4% 5%  
67 0.1% 5%  
68 1.3% 5%  
69 1.4% 3%  
70 0.5% 2%  
71 0.5% 1.3%  
72 0% 0.9%  
73 0.3% 0.8%  
74 0% 0.5%  
75 0% 0.5%  
76 0.5% 0.5%  
77 0% 0%  

Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai/Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.5% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.4% Last Result
51 0% 99.3% Majority
52 0.1% 99.3%  
53 0.3% 99.1%  
54 68% 98.9%  
55 0.2% 31%  
56 3% 31%  
57 2% 28%  
58 3% 27%  
59 0.2% 24%  
60 2% 24% Median
61 14% 22%  
62 2% 8%  
63 3% 6%  
64 0.5% 3%  
65 0.5% 3%  
66 0.2% 2%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.3% 100%  
46 32% 99.7%  
47 35% 68%  
48 0.3% 33% Last Result
49 2% 32%  
50 1.1% 30%  
51 0.5% 29% Majority
52 3% 28%  
53 3% 26% Median
54 2% 23%  
55 2% 21%  
56 0.9% 19%  
57 0.3% 19%  
58 13% 18%  
59 1.3% 5%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.8% 2%  
62 0.7% 1.1%  
63 0% 0.4%  
64 0% 0.4%  
65 0.4% 0.4%  
66 0% 0%  

Jaunā VIENOTĪBA – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100% Last Result
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 31% 100%  
40 0.3% 69%  
41 0.1% 68%  
42 2% 68%  
43 0.3% 66%  
44 0.1% 66%  
45 4% 66%  
46 2% 62% Median
47 37% 60%  
48 0.1% 22%  
49 0.6% 22%  
50 2% 22%  
51 14% 20% Majority
52 2% 6%  
53 2% 4%  
54 0% 2%  
55 0.7% 2%  
56 0% 1.3%  
57 0.4% 1.2%  
58 0% 0.8%  
59 0.3% 0.8%  
60 0.5% 0.5%  
61 0% 0%  

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai/Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0% 99.8%  
31 0% 99.8%  
32 0% 99.8%  
33 0% 99.8%  
34 36% 99.7%  
35 0.2% 64%  
36 0.2% 64%  
37 1.3% 63%  
38 0.7% 62%  
39 1.4% 61%  
40 33% 60%  
41 0.2% 27% Median
42 5% 27%  
43 3% 22%  
44 0.7% 19%  
45 2% 18%  
46 14% 16%  
47 0.8% 2%  
48 0.3% 2%  
49 1.3% 1.4%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai/Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.9%  
30 0.3% 98%  
31 0.7% 98%  
32 0.8% 97%  
33 32% 96%  
34 38% 65% Median
35 3% 27%  
36 0.3% 24%  
37 3% 24% Last Result
38 0.8% 20%  
39 14% 19%  
40 2% 5%  
41 0.2% 3%  
42 1.3% 2%  
43 0.1% 1.0%  
44 0.5% 1.0%  
45 0.5% 0.5%  
46 0% 0%  

Attīstībai/Par! – Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.3% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.7%  
26 0.1% 99.4%  
27 36% 99.3%  
28 0.1% 64%  
29 0.6% 64%  
30 1.4% 63%  
31 33% 62%  
32 2% 28%  
33 0.5% 27%  
34 4% 26% Median
35 14% 22%  
36 2% 8%  
37 2% 6%  
38 1.2% 4%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.8% 0.8%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0% Last Result

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 35% 99.7%  
21 0% 64%  
22 0.1% 64%  
23 0.3% 64%  
24 1.4% 64%  
25 0.7% 62%  
26 35% 62%  
27 2% 27% Median
28 1.3% 25%  
29 4% 23%  
30 1.2% 19%  
31 0.1% 18%  
32 15% 18%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.7% 0.9%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0% Last Result

Attīstībai/Par! – Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa”

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.8%  
23 0.6% 99.7%  
24 33% 99.1%  
25 0.9% 66%  
26 2% 65%  
27 37% 63% Median
28 16% 27%  
29 2% 11%  
30 5% 9%  
31 3% 4%  
32 0.6% 1.1%  
33 0.4% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations