Opinion Poll by Vilmorus for Lietuvos rytas, 12–21 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 29.0% 27.3–30.9% 26.7–31.4% 26.3–31.9% 25.5–32.8%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.8–26.5%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 7.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.6%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.6%
Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija 2.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Politinė partija “Lietuvos sąrašas” 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 24 22–25 21–25 21–26 20–27
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 19 17–19 17–21 16–21 16–21
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 11 10–12 10–13 10–13 9–14
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 11 10–12 10–13 10–13 9–14
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 6 5–6 5–7 4–7 4–7
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 0 0 0 0 0
Darbo Partija 2 0 0 0 0 0
Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija 0 0 0 0 0 0
Politinė partija “Lietuvos sąrašas” 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.9% 99.8%  
21 8% 98.9%  
22 14% 91%  
23 25% 77%  
24 32% 52% Median
25 17% 20%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.7% 0.7%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 3% 99.7%  
17 29% 96%  
18 13% 67%  
19 45% 54% Median
20 3% 9%  
21 6% 6%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 2% 100%  
10 15% 98%  
11 43% 83% Median
12 34% 40%  
13 5% 6%  
14 0.9% 0.9%  
15 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 2% 99.9%  
10 34% 98%  
11 31% 65% Median
12 26% 34%  
13 8% 8%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 3% 99.7%  
5 31% 97%  
6 58% 66% Median
7 7% 8%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 5% 6%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1% Last Result
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Politinė partija “Lietuvos sąrašas”

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Politinė partija “Lietuvos sąrašas” page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 29 0% 28–31 27–32 27–32 26–33

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.9%  
27 5% 99.4%  
28 23% 94%  
29 30% 71%  
30 19% 41% Median
31 12% 22%  
32 8% 9%  
33 1.0% 1.2%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations