Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija
Voting Intentions
Last result: 5.7% (General Election of 27 March 2017)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 4.0% | 1.5–6.0% | 1.3–6.5% | 1.1–6.8% | 0.9–7.5% |
| 17–27 September 2020 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
5.8% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.7–7.1% | 4.5–7.4% | 4.1–7.9% |
| 4–12 September 2020 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
3.5% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.2% |
| 26 August–4 September 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
4.5% | 3.7–5.4% | 3.5–5.7% | 3.4–5.9% | 3.0–6.4% |
| 22 August–4 September 2020 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–5.9% |
| 29 July–31 August 2020 | Norstat LRT |
1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.7–2.8% |
| 16–30 July 2020 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
4.8% | 4.0–5.8% | 3.8–6.1% | 3.6–6.3% | 3.3–6.8% |
| 16–26 July 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
4.7% | 4.0–5.7% | 3.8–6.0% | 3.6–6.2% | 3.3–6.7% |
| 10–18 July 2020 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
3.3% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.4–4.6% | 2.1–5.1% |
| 18–26 June 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
5.7% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.6–7.1% | 4.5–7.3% | 4.1–7.9% |
| 15–25 June 2020 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
6.6% | 5.7–7.7% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.2–8.3% | 4.8–8.9% |
| 5–13 June 2020 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.1% | 2.8–5.3% | 2.5–5.8% |
| 20–30 April 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
5.9% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.6–7.6% | 4.3–8.1% |
| 17–30 March 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.3% | 3.9–6.6% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 6–13 March 2020 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
2.3% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.7–3.3% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.4–3.9% |
| 13–26 February 2020 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.1–6.3% | 3.9–6.6% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 18–25 February 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
4.9% | 4.2–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| 7–13 February 2020 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
2.7% | 2.2–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.6–4.4% |
| 20–28 January 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
4.4% | 3.7–5.4% | 3.5–5.7% | 3.3–5.9% | 3.0–6.4% |
| 10–18 January 2020 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
2.9% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.0–4.2% | 1.8–4.6% |
| 10–21 December 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
6.0% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 29 November–7 December 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
2.2% | 1.7–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.7% |
| 19–29 November 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
4.8% | 4.0–5.7% | 3.8–6.0% | 3.6–6.2% | 3.3–6.8% |
| 14–27 November 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
5.9% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.6–7.5% | 4.2–8.1% |
| 8–16 November 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
3.3% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.4–4.6% | 2.1–5.1% |
| 15–29 October 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
7.1% | 6.2–8.3% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.2–9.4% |
| 17–28 October 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
4.6% | 3.8–5.5% | 3.6–5.8% | 3.4–6.0% | 3.1–6.5% |
| 4–13 October 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| 21 September–5 October 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
5.2% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% | 4.0–6.8% | 3.6–7.3% |
| 18–27 September 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
4.2% | 3.4–5.1% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
| 6–14 September 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
3.4% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.2% |
| 26 August–8 September 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
5.3% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.3–6.6% | 4.1–6.9% | 3.7–7.4% |
| 15–29 July 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
5.3% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.3–6.6% | 4.1–6.9% | 3.7–7.4% |
| 17–26 July 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
4.6% | 3.8–5.5% | 3.6–5.8% | 3.4–6.1% | 3.1–6.5% |
| 5–13 July 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| 14–28 June 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| 18–27 June 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
4.7% | 4.0–5.7% | 3.8–6.0% | 3.6–6.2% | 3.2–6.7% |
| 7–15 June 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
4.8% | 4.0–5.8% | 3.8–6.1% | 3.6–6.3% | 3.3–6.8% |
| 27 May–9 June 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
6.0% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.6–7.6% | 4.3–8.1% |
| 17–25 May 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
5.5% | 4.6–6.5% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.2–7.0% | 3.9–7.6% |
| 13–18 May 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
4.5% | 3.7–5.5% | 3.5–5.7% | 3.4–6.0% | 3.0–6.5% |
| 20–29 April 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
6.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 4–13 April 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
4.9% | 4.2–5.9% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.4% | 3.4–7.0% |
| 15 March–10 April 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.8% |
| 18–28 March 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| 7–15 March 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
3.3% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.4–4.6% | 2.1–5.1% |
| 18–28 February 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
6.0% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 15–26 February 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
4.3% | 3.6–5.2% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.2–5.7% | 2.9–6.2% |
| 8–17 February 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
3.4% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.5–4.7% | 2.2–5.2% |
| 23 January–3 February 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.8–4.6% |
| 15–26 January 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
6.5% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.2–8.2% | 4.8–8.8% |
| 11–20 January 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.5–5.6% |
| 9 December 2018 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.8% |
| 19–30 November 2018 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| 9–26 November 2018 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.8% |
| 16–30 October 2018 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
6.0% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 10–26 October 2018 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| 24 September–7 October 2018 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.8% |
| 19–26 September 2018 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
6.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 24–31 August 2018 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| 21–31 August 2018 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.8% |
| 16–31 July 2018 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
6.0% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.6–7.6% | 4.3–8.1% |
| 19–27 June 2018 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| 8–17 June 2018 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.8% |
| 4–12 May 2018 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.8% |
| 6–15 April 2018 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
4.3% | 3.5–5.2% | 3.3–5.5% | 3.2–5.7% | 2.9–6.2% |
| 9–18 February 2018 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
5.9% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.1% |
| 12–21 January 2018 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.8% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 0.5–1.5% | 12% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 13% | 88% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 14% | 75% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 23% | 61% | Median |
| 4.5–5.5% | 19% | 38% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 14% | 18% | Last Result |
| 6.5–7.5% | 4% | 4% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 8 seats (General Election of 27 March 2017)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 17–27 September 2020 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
5 | 4–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 4–12 September 2020 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–5 |
| 26 August–4 September 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 22 August–4 September 2020 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| 29 July–31 August 2020 | Norstat LRT |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16–30 July 2020 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 16–26 July 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 10–18 July 2020 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| 18–26 June 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 15–25 June 2020 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 0–7 |
| 5–13 June 2020 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 20–30 April 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
5 | 4–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| 17–30 March 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 6–13 March 2020 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13–26 February 2020 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 18–25 February 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 7–13 February 2020 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20–28 January 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 10–18 January 2020 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10–21 December 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
5 | 4–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| 29 November–7 December 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19–29 November 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 14–27 November 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 8–16 November 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| 15–29 October 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 17–28 October 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 4–13 October 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 September–5 October 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 18–27 September 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 6–14 September 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| 26 August–8 September 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 15–29 July 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 17–26 July 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 5–13 July 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 14–28 June 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 18–27 June 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 7–15 June 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 27 May–9 June 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
5 | 4–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| 17–25 May 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 13–18 May 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 20–29 April 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
5 | 4–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 4–13 April 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 15 March–10 April 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 18–28 March 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 7–15 March 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| 18–28 February 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
5 | 4–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| 15–26 February 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 8–17 February 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| 23 January–3 February 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15–26 January 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
5 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 0–8 |
| 11–20 January 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| 9 December 2018 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 19–30 November 2018 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| 9–26 November 2018 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| 16–30 October 2018 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
5 | 4–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| 10–26 October 2018 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 24 September–7 October 2018 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 19–26 September 2018 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 0–6 |
| 24–31 August 2018 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 21–31 August 2018 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 16–31 July 2018 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 19–27 June 2018 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 8–17 June 2018 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| 4–12 May 2018 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| 6–15 April 2018 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 9–18 February 2018 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 12–21 January 2018 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 72% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 28% | |
| 2 | 0% | 28% | |
| 3 | 0% | 28% | |
| 4 | 5% | 28% | |
| 5 | 22% | 23% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |