Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 22.6% (General Election of 27 March 2017)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 21.3% 17.4–33.2% 16.7–34.1% 16.2–34.7% 15.4–35.9%
17–27 September 2020 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 17.7% 16.2–19.3% 15.8–19.8% 15.5–20.2% 14.8–21.0%
4–12 September 2020 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 20.7% 19.2–22.5% 18.7–22.9% 18.3–23.4% 17.6–24.2%
26 August–4 September 2020 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 21.7% 20.1–23.5% 19.7–24.0% 19.3–24.4% 18.5–25.2%
22 August–4 September 2020 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 19.2% 17.7–20.8% 17.2–21.3% 16.9–21.7% 16.2–22.5%
29 July–31 August 2020 Norstat
LRT		 32.8% 30.9–34.8% 30.4–35.3% 29.9–35.8% 29.1–36.7%
16–30 July 2020 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 19.2% 17.7–20.9% 17.2–21.4% 16.9–21.8% 16.2–22.6%
16–26 July 2020 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 22.8% 21.2–24.6% 20.7–25.1% 20.3–25.5% 19.6–26.4%
10–18 July 2020 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 26.5% 24.8–28.4% 24.3–28.9% 23.9–29.3% 23.0–30.2%
18–26 June 2020 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 25.1% 23.5–27.0% 23.0–27.5% 22.6–27.9% 21.8–28.8%
15–25 June 2020 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 18.2% 16.7–19.8% 16.3–20.3% 15.9–20.7% 15.2–21.5%
5–13 June 2020 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 25.1% 23.4–26.9% 22.9–27.5% 22.5–27.9% 21.7–28.8%
20–30 April 2020 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 26.4% 24.7–28.2% 24.2–28.8% 23.8–29.2% 23.0–30.1%
17–30 March 2020 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 30.1% 28.3–32.0% 27.8–32.6% 27.4–33.0% 26.5–34.0%
6–13 March 2020 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 29.0% 27.1–30.9% 26.6–31.4% 26.2–31.9% 25.3–32.8%
13–26 February 2020 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 24.3% 22.6–26.0% 22.1–26.6% 21.7–27.0% 21.0–27.9%
18–25 February 2020 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 27.7% 25.9–29.5% 25.4–30.1% 25.0–30.5% 24.2–31.4%
7–13 February 2020 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 29.4% 27.5–31.3% 27.0–31.8% 26.6–32.3% 25.7–33.2%
20–28 January 2020 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 26.7% 25.0–28.5% 24.5–29.1% 24.1–29.5% 23.3–30.4%
10–18 January 2020 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 28.0% 26.3–29.9% 25.8–30.5% 25.3–30.9% 24.5–31.8%
10–21 December 2019 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 23.8% 22.2–25.6% 21.7–26.1% 21.3–26.5% 20.5–27.4%
29 November–7 December 2019 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 26.1% 24.3–27.9% 23.8–28.4% 23.4–28.9% 22.6–29.8%
19–29 November 2019 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 27.5% 25.8–29.4% 25.3–29.9% 24.9–30.4% 24.0–31.3%
14–27 November 2019 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 26.3% 24.6–28.2% 24.1–28.7% 23.7–29.1% 22.8–30.0%
8–16 November 2019 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 26.9% 25.1–28.7% 24.6–29.2% 24.2–29.7% 23.4–30.6%
15–29 October 2019 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 24.2% 22.5–26.0% 22.1–26.5% 21.6–27.0% 20.9–27.8%
17–28 October 2019 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
4–13 October 2019 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 26.7% 25.0–28.6% 24.5–29.2% 24.1–29.6% 23.2–30.5%
21 September–5 October 2019 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 26.5% 24.8–28.4% 24.3–28.9% 23.9–29.4% 23.1–30.3%
18–27 September 2019 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 26.2% 24.5–28.0% 24.0–28.5% 23.6–29.0% 22.8–29.9%
6–14 September 2019 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 23.2% 21.6–25.0% 21.1–25.5% 20.7–26.0% 19.9–26.8%
26 August–8 September 2019 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 20.0% 18.5–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.7–22.6% 17.0–23.4%
15–29 July 2019 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
17–26 July 2019 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 26.2% 24.5–28.1% 24.0–28.6% 23.6–29.0% 22.8–29.9%
5–13 July 2019 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 25.6% 23.9–27.5% 23.4–28.0% 23.0–28.5% 22.2–29.4%
14–28 June 2019 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 22.1% 20.5–23.9% 20.1–24.4% 19.7–24.8% 18.9–25.6%
18–27 June 2019 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 26.9% 25.2–28.8% 24.7–29.3% 24.3–29.8% 23.5–30.6%
7–15 June 2019 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 26.2% 24.4–28.0% 23.9–28.6% 23.5–29.0% 22.7–29.9%
27 May–9 June 2019 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 22.4% 20.8–24.2% 20.4–24.7% 20.0–25.1% 19.2–26.0%
17–25 May 2019 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 26.1% 24.4–27.9% 23.9–28.4% 23.5–28.9% 22.7–29.8%
13–18 May 2019 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 30.4% 28.6–32.4% 28.1–32.9% 27.6–33.4% 26.8–34.3%
20–29 April 2019 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 28.0% 26.3–29.9% 25.8–30.5% 25.4–30.9% 24.5–31.8%
4–13 April 2019 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 30.7% 28.9–32.6% 28.4–33.1% 28.0–33.6% 27.1–34.5%
15 March–10 April 2019 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 24.0% 22.4–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.5–26.8% 20.7–27.6%
18–28 March 2019 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 25.0% 23.4–26.9% 22.9–27.4% 22.5–27.8% 21.7–28.7%
7–15 March 2019 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 23.5% 21.8–25.3% 21.4–25.7% 21.0–26.2% 20.2–27.1%
18–28 February 2019 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 27.8% 26.1–29.7% 25.6–30.2% 25.1–30.7% 24.3–31.6%
15–26 February 2019 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 23.7% 22.1–25.5% 21.6–26.0% 21.2–26.5% 20.4–27.3%
8–17 February 2019 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 31.1% 29.3–33.0% 28.8–33.6% 28.3–34.0% 27.5–34.9%
23 January–3 February 2019 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 23.9% 22.3–25.7% 21.8–26.2% 21.4–26.7% 20.6–27.5%
15–26 January 2019 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 26.5% 24.8–28.3% 24.3–28.9% 23.9–29.3% 23.1–30.2%
11–20 January 2019 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 25.2% 23.5–27.0% 23.0–27.5% 22.6–28.0% 21.8–28.8%
9 December 2018 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 28.6% 26.8–30.4% 26.3–31.0% 25.9–31.4% 25.1–32.3%
19–30 November 2018 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 26.0% 24.2–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.6%
9–26 November 2018 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.4–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
16–30 October 2018 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 26.0% 24.2–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.8% 22.5–29.7%
10–26 October 2018 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 24.0% 22.4–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.5–26.8% 20.7–27.6%
24 September–7 October 2018 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 25.0% 23.3–26.8% 22.8–27.4% 22.4–27.8% 21.7–28.7%
19–26 September 2018 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.4% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
24–31 August 2018 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 24.0% 22.4–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.5–26.8% 20.7–27.6%
21–31 August 2018 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 22.0% 20.4–23.8% 20.0–24.3% 19.6–24.7% 18.8–25.6%
16–31 July 2018 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 19.0% 17.5–20.6% 17.0–21.1% 16.7–21.5% 16.0–22.3%
19–27 June 2018 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.8–26.6%
8–17 June 2018 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
4–12 May 2018 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 24.0% 22.3–25.8% 21.9–26.2% 21.5–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
6–15 April 2018 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 27.9% 26.2–29.8% 25.7–30.3% 25.2–30.8% 24.4–31.7%
9–18 February 2018 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 27.8% 26.1–29.6% 25.6–30.2% 25.2–30.6% 24.4–31.5%
12–21 January 2018 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 29.0% 27.3–30.9% 26.7–31.4% 26.3–31.9% 25.5–32.8%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13.5–14.5% 0.1% 100%  
14.5–15.5% 0.7% 99.9%  
15.5–16.5% 3% 99.3%  
16.5–17.5% 7% 96%  
17.5–18.5% 9% 89%  
18.5–19.5% 9% 80%  
19.5–20.5% 11% 72%  
20.5–21.5% 14% 60% Median
21.5–22.5% 12% 46%  
22.5–23.5% 6% 34% Last Result
23.5–24.5% 2% 28%  
24.5–25.5% 0.4% 26%  
25.5–26.5% 0.1% 25%  
26.5–27.5% 0% 25%  
27.5–28.5% 0% 25%  
28.5–29.5% 0.3% 25%  
29.5–30.5% 1.2% 25%  
30.5–31.5% 3% 24%  
31.5–32.5% 6% 20%  
32.5–33.5% 6% 14%  
33.5–34.5% 5% 8%  
34.5–35.5% 2% 3%  
35.5–36.5% 0.7% 0.9%  
36.5–37.5% 0.1% 0.2%  
37.5–38.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 31 seats (General Election of 27 March 2017)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 19 15–29 14–31 13–31 12–31
17–27 September 2020 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 15 13–15 13–16 12–16 12–17
4–12 September 2020 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 19 17–21 17–22 16–22 16–23
26 August–4 September 2020 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 20 18–22 17–22 17–23 16–24
22 August–4 September 2020 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 16 14–16 14–17 13–17 13–18
29 July–31 August 2020 Norstat
LRT		 29 26–31 26–31 25–31 24–33
16–30 July 2020 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 15 15–17 14–18 14–18 13–18
16–26 July 2020 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 18 17–20 16–21 16–21 15–22
10–18 July 2020 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 21 19–23 19–23 18–24 17–25
18–26 June 2020 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 20 18–22 18–22 17–23 17–24
15–25 June 2020 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 14 13–15 13–16 12–16 12–17
5–13 June 2020 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 21 19–22 18–22 18–23 18–24
20–30 April 2020 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 23 21–25 21–25 20–26 19–27
17–30 March 2020 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 26 24–28 24–29 23–29 22–30
6–13 March 2020 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 24 22–25 22–26 21–26 20–27
13–26 February 2020 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 20 18–22 18–22 17–22 17–23
18–25 February 2020 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 23 22–26 21–27 21–27 19–28
7–13 February 2020 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 23 22–26 22–26 21–26 21–27
20–28 January 2020 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 23 21–25 21–26 20–26 19–28
10–18 January 2020 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 22 21–24 20–25 19–25 19–27
10–21 December 2019 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 19 18–21 17–21 17–22 16–22
29 November–7 December 2019 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 21 19–23 19–23 19–23 18–24
19–29 November 2019 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 26 24–28 23–28 22–28 21–29
14–27 November 2019 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 21 19–23 19–23 19–24 18–25
8–16 November 2019 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 22 20–23 20–23 19–24 18–25
15–29 October 2019 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 19 17–20 17–21 17–21 16–21
17–28 October 2019 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 23 21–25 20–25 19–25 18–26
4–13 October 2019 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 22 20–22 19–22 19–23 18–24
21 September–5 October 2019 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 22 19–23 19–24 19–24 18–25
18–27 September 2019 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 23 21–25 21–26 20–27 20–28
6–14 September 2019 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 19 17–21 17–21 17–22 16–23
26 August–8 September 2019 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 16 14–17 13–17 13–18 13–19
15–29 July 2019 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 17 16–18 15–19 15–19 14–20
17–26 July 2019 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 23 21–24 20–25 20–25 19–26
5–13 July 2019 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 22 19–23 18–24 18–25 17–26
14–28 June 2019 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 18 16–20 16–20 16–20 15–21
18–27 June 2019 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 23 21–25 20–26 20–26 19–27
7–15 June 2019 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 22 20–24 20–24 19–25 18–26
27 May–9 June 2019 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 18 16–19 16–20 15–20 15–22
17–25 May 2019 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 21 19–22 19–23 19–23 18–24
13–18 May 2019 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 25 23–27 22–27 22–28 21–29
20–29 April 2019 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 21 20–23 19–23 19–23 18–24
4–13 April 2019 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 25 23–28 22–28 22–28 21–28
15 March–10 April 2019 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 20 18–23 18–24 17–24 16–25
18–28 March 2019 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 20 19–22 19–23 18–23 17–24
7–15 March 2019 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 20 18–21 18–22 17–22 17–23
18–28 February 2019 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 24 22–26 21–27 21–27 20–29
15–26 February 2019 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 20 18–22 18–22 17–23 17–23
8–17 February 2019 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 25 23–27 23–27 22–28 22–29
23 January–3 February 2019 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 19 18–21 18–21 17–21 16–22
15–26 January 2019 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 22 21–24 20–25 20–25 19–26
11–20 January 2019 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 21 19–22 18–22 18–23 17–24
9 December 2018 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 24 23–26 22–26 22–27 21–27
19–30 November 2018 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 21 19–23 19–23 19–23 18–25
9–26 November 2018 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 21 19–23 19–23 18–23 18–24
16–30 October 2018 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 21 20–24 19–24 19–25 18–26
10–26 October 2018 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 18 16–19 16–19 15–20 15–21
24 September–7 October 2018 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 21 19–23 19–23 18–24 17–24
19–26 September 2018 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 20 18–21 18–22 18–23 17–23
24–31 August 2018 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 19 17–21 17–21 16–21 16–22
21–31 August 2018 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 19 17–21 17–22 17–22 16–23
16–31 July 2018 Baltijos tyrimai
ELTA		 14 13–15 13–16 13–16 12–17
19–27 June 2018 Spinter tyrimai
Delfi		 19 17–20 16–21 16–21 15–22
8–17 June 2018 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 20 19–22 18–22 18–23 17–24
4–12 May 2018 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 18 17–19 16–19 16–20 15–21
6–15 April 2018 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 22 20–23 19–23 19–24 18–25
9–18 February 2018 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 20 19–21 19–22 18–22 18–24
12–21 January 2018 Vilmorus
Lietuvos rytas		 24 22–25 21–25 21–26 20–27

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.9% 100%  
13 3% 99.0%  
14 6% 96%  
15 13% 90%  
16 3% 77%  
17 5% 74%  
18 9% 69%  
19 12% 60% Median
20 12% 48%  
21 7% 36%  
22 3% 30%  
23 0.8% 26%  
24 0.4% 25%  
25 0.7% 25%  
26 2% 24%  
27 2% 22%  
28 4% 21%  
29 8% 17%  
30 3% 8%  
31 5% 5% Last Result
32 0.2% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%