Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija
Voting Intentions
Last result: 15.0% (General Election of 27 March 2017)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 12.9% | 11.3–14.6% | 10.8–15.1% | 10.5–15.5% | 9.8–16.4% |
| 17–27 September 2020 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
13.9% | 12.6–15.4% | 12.2–15.8% | 11.9–16.2% | 11.3–16.9% |
| 4–12 September 2020 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
11.8% | 10.6–13.2% | 10.2–13.6% | 10.0–13.9% | 9.4–14.6% |
| 26 August–4 September 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
12.6% | 11.3–14.0% | 11.0–14.4% | 10.7–14.8% | 10.1–15.5% |
| 22 August–4 September 2020 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
18.5% | 17.0–20.1% | 16.6–20.6% | 16.2–21.0% | 15.5–21.8% |
| 29 July–31 August 2020 | Norstat LRT |
13.0% | 11.7–14.5% | 11.4–14.9% | 11.1–15.2% | 10.5–16.0% |
| 16–30 July 2020 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
14.0% | 12.7–15.5% | 12.3–15.9% | 12.0–16.3% | 11.4–17.0% |
| 16–26 July 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
13.9% | 12.6–15.4% | 12.2–15.8% | 11.9–16.2% | 11.3–16.9% |
| 10–18 July 2020 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
10.8% | 9.7–12.2% | 9.3–12.6% | 9.1–12.9% | 8.5–13.6% |
| 18–26 June 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
13.5% | 12.2–15.0% | 11.8–15.4% | 11.5–15.8% | 10.9–16.5% |
| 15–25 June 2020 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
17.0% | 15.5–18.6% | 15.2–19.1% | 14.8–19.5% | 14.1–20.3% |
| 5–13 June 2020 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
16.0% | 14.6–17.6% | 14.2–18.1% | 13.9–18.5% | 13.2–19.2% |
| 20–30 April 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
13.7% | 12.4–15.2% | 12.1–15.7% | 11.8–16.0% | 11.2–16.8% |
| 17–30 March 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
12.2% | 11.0–13.6% | 10.6–14.0% | 10.3–14.4% | 9.7–15.1% |
| 6–13 March 2020 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
14.2% | 12.8–15.7% | 12.5–16.1% | 12.1–16.5% | 11.5–17.3% |
| 13–26 February 2020 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
15.6% | 14.3–17.2% | 13.9–17.6% | 13.5–18.0% | 12.9–18.7% |
| 18–25 February 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
12.4% | 11.1–13.8% | 10.8–14.2% | 10.5–14.5% | 9.9–15.2% |
| 7–13 February 2020 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
16.1% | 14.7–17.7% | 14.3–18.1% | 13.9–18.5% | 13.3–19.3% |
| 20–28 January 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
11.3% | 10.1–12.7% | 9.8–13.1% | 9.5–13.4% | 9.0–14.1% |
| 10–18 January 2020 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
15.2% | 13.8–16.7% | 13.4–17.2% | 13.1–17.5% | 12.4–18.3% |
| 10–21 December 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
17.5% | 16.0–19.1% | 15.6–19.5% | 15.2–19.9% | 14.6–20.7% |
| 29 November–7 December 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
14.2% | 12.9–15.8% | 12.5–16.2% | 12.2–16.6% | 11.6–17.3% |
| 19–29 November 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
11.5% | 10.3–12.9% | 10.0–13.3% | 9.7–13.6% | 9.1–14.3% |
| 14–27 November 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
19.8% | 18.3–21.5% | 17.8–22.0% | 17.4–22.4% | 16.7–23.2% |
| 8–16 November 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
13.0% | 11.7–14.5% | 11.4–14.9% | 11.1–15.3% | 10.5–16.0% |
| 15–29 October 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
19.4% | 17.9–21.1% | 17.4–21.6% | 17.1–22.0% | 16.4–22.8% |
| 17–28 October 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.7% |
| 4–13 October 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
11.6% | 10.4–13.0% | 10.0–13.4% | 9.8–13.8% | 9.2–14.5% |
| 21 September–5 October 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
17.6% | 16.1–19.2% | 15.7–19.6% | 15.3–20.1% | 14.6–20.9% |
| 18–27 September 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
12.3% | 11.0–13.7% | 10.7–14.1% | 10.4–14.4% | 9.8–15.1% |
| 6–14 September 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
13.5% | 12.2–15.0% | 11.8–15.4% | 11.5–15.8% | 10.9–16.5% |
| 26 August–8 September 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
18.5% | 17.1–20.2% | 16.6–20.7% | 16.3–21.1% | 15.6–21.9% |
| 15–29 July 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
19.2% | 17.7–20.9% | 17.2–21.4% | 16.9–21.8% | 16.2–22.6% |
| 17–26 July 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
13.7% | 12.4–15.2% | 12.0–15.6% | 11.7–16.0% | 11.1–16.7% |
| 5–13 July 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
11.7% | 10.5–13.2% | 10.2–13.6% | 9.9–13.9% | 9.3–14.6% |
| 14–28 June 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
18.7% | 17.2–20.3% | 16.8–20.8% | 16.4–21.2% | 15.7–22.0% |
| 18–27 June 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
14.0% | 12.7–15.5% | 12.3–15.9% | 12.0–16.3% | 11.4–17.0% |
| 7–15 June 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
12.4% | 11.2–13.9% | 10.8–14.3% | 10.5–14.6% | 9.9–15.4% |
| 27 May–9 June 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
17.8% | 16.3–19.4% | 15.9–19.9% | 15.5–20.3% | 14.8–21.1% |
| 17–25 May 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
11.4% | 10.2–12.8% | 9.9–13.2% | 9.6–13.5% | 9.0–14.2% |
| 13–18 May 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
10.6% | 9.4–11.9% | 9.1–12.3% | 8.8–12.7% | 8.3–13.4% |
| 20–29 April 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
11.0% | 9.8–12.4% | 9.5–12.8% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.7–13.8% |
| 4–13 April 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
10.9% | 9.7–12.2% | 9.4–12.6% | 9.1–12.9% | 8.6–13.6% |
| 15 March–10 April 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
16.0% | 14.6–17.6% | 14.2–18.0% | 13.9–18.4% | 13.2–19.2% |
| 18–28 March 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
14.0% | 12.7–15.5% | 12.3–15.9% | 12.0–16.3% | 11.4–17.0% |
| 7–15 March 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
12.2% | 11.0–13.6% | 10.7–14.0% | 10.4–14.4% | 9.8–15.1% |
| 18–28 February 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
9.7% | 8.6–11.1% | 8.3–11.4% | 8.1–11.7% | 7.6–12.4% |
| 15–26 February 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
11.4% | 10.2–12.8% | 9.9–13.2% | 9.6–13.5% | 9.1–14.2% |
| 8–17 February 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
8.1% | 7.1–9.3% | 6.8–9.6% | 6.6–9.9% | 6.1–10.5% |
| 23 January–3 February 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
12.7% | 11.4–14.2% | 11.1–14.6% | 10.8–14.9% | 10.2–15.6% |
| 15–26 January 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
11.0% | 9.8–12.3% | 9.5–12.7% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.7–13.7% |
| 11–20 January 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
10.4% | 9.2–11.7% | 8.9–12.0% | 8.6–12.4% | 8.1–13.0% |
| 9 December 2018 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
8.9% | 7.8–10.2% | 7.6–10.5% | 7.3–10.8% | 6.8–11.4% |
| 19–30 November 2018 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
11.0% | 9.8–12.3% | 9.4–12.7% | 9.2–13.0% | 8.6–13.7% |
| 9–26 November 2018 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
13.0% | 11.7–14.5% | 11.4–14.9% | 11.1–15.2% | 10.5–16.0% |
| 16–30 October 2018 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.4–9.8% | 6.0–10.4% |
| 10–26 October 2018 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
13.0% | 11.7–14.5% | 11.4–14.9% | 11.1–15.2% | 10.5–16.0% |
| 24 September–7 October 2018 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
6.0% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.6–7.6% | 4.3–8.1% |
| 19–26 September 2018 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| 24–31 August 2018 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
8.0% | 7.0–9.3% | 6.8–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.1–10.5% |
| 21–31 August 2018 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| 16–31 July 2018 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
10.0% | 8.9–11.4% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.7% |
| 19–27 June 2018 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
10.0% | 8.8–11.3% | 8.5–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.7% |
| 8–17 June 2018 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.8–9.6% | 6.5–9.8% | 6.1–10.4% |
| 4–12 May 2018 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
8.0% | 7.0–9.1% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.5–9.8% | 6.0–10.4% |
| 6–15 April 2018 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
7.8% | 6.8–9.0% | 6.6–9.4% | 6.3–9.6% | 5.9–10.2% |
| 9–18 February 2018 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
12.8% | 11.6–14.3% | 11.2–14.7% | 10.9–15.0% | 10.4–15.7% |
| 12–21 January 2018 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
14.0% | 12.7–15.5% | 12.3–15.9% | 12.0–16.3% | 11.4–17.0% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 12% | 97% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 25% | 85% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 29% | 60% | Median |
| 13.5–14.5% | 20% | 31% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 8% | 11% | Last Result |
| 15.5–16.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 17 seats (General Election of 27 March 2017)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 11 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| 17–27 September 2020 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
11 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| 4–12 September 2020 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
11 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| 26 August–4 September 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 |
| 22 August–4 September 2020 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
15 | 14–17 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–18 |
| 29 July–31 August 2020 | Norstat LRT |
12 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| 16–30 July 2020 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
12 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| 16–26 July 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
11 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| 10–18 July 2020 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
9 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 |
| 18–26 June 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
11 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| 15–25 June 2020 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
13 | 12–14 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
| 5–13 June 2020 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
13 | 12–14 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 11–16 |
| 20–30 April 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
12 | 11–13 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 |
| 17–30 March 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
10 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| 6–13 March 2020 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
11 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 9–14 |
| 13–26 February 2020 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
13 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 10–15 |
| 18–25 February 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
11 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| 7–13 February 2020 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
13 | 12–14 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 10–16 |
| 20–28 January 2020 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
10 | 9–11 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 |
| 10–18 January 2020 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
13 | 11–13 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 |
| 10–21 December 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
14 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–17 |
| 29 November–7 December 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
12 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| 19–29 November 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
11 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| 14–27 November 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
16 | 15–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 13–19 |
| 8–16 November 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
11 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| 15–29 October 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
15 | 13–16 | 12–17 | 12–18 | 12–18 |
| 17–28 October 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 6–11 |
| 4–13 October 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
9 | 9–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 7–11 |
| 21 September–5 October 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
14 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 12–17 | 11–17 |
| 18–27 September 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
11 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 8–14 |
| 6–14 September 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
11 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| 26 August–8 September 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 11–18 |
| 15–29 July 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
15 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 13–17 | 13–18 |
| 17–26 July 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
12 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 9–15 |
| 5–13 July 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
10 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 7–12 |
| 14–28 June 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
15 | 14–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–18 |
| 18–27 June 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
12 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 9–15 |
| 7–15 June 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
10 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 |
| 27 May–9 June 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
14 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 | 11–17 |
| 17–25 May 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
9 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 7–12 |
| 13–18 May 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–11 |
| 20–29 April 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| 4–13 April 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
| 15 March–10 April 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
13 | 12–15 | 11–16 | 11–16 | 11–17 |
| 18–28 March 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 9–14 |
| 7–15 March 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
10 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| 18–28 February 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
8 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–11 |
| 15–26 February 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
10 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 8–12 |
| 8–17 February 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
6 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 23 January–3 February 2019 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
10 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–12 |
| 15–26 January 2019 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
9 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| 11–20 January 2019 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–11 |
| 9 December 2018 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| 19–30 November 2018 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 |
| 9–26 November 2018 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
10 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 |
| 16–30 October 2018 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| 10–26 October 2018 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
10 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| 24 September–7 October 2018 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
5 | 4–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| 19–26 September 2018 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 24–31 August 2018 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 21–31 August 2018 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 16–31 July 2018 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
8 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| 19–27 June 2018 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| 8–17 June 2018 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 4–12 May 2018 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| 6–15 April 2018 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 9–18 February 2018 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–11 |
| 12–21 January 2018 | Vilmorus Lietuvos rytas |
11 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 9 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 10 | 20% | 95% | |
| 11 | 32% | 75% | Median |
| 12 | 34% | 43% | |
| 13 | 7% | 9% | |
| 14 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |