Opinion Poll by Vilmorus for Lietuvos rytas, 9–18 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 27.8% 26.1–29.6% 25.6–30.2% 25.2–30.6% 24.4–31.5%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 21.8% 20.2–23.5% 19.7–24.0% 19.4–24.4% 18.6–25.2%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 12.8% 11.6–14.3% 11.2–14.7% 10.9–15.0% 10.4–15.7%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 11.9% 10.7–13.3% 10.3–13.7% 10.1–14.0% 9.5–14.7%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 8.9% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.9–11.4%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.3% 5.5–8.6% 5.1–9.2%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 5.9% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.1%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 3.9% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 20 19–21 19–22 18–22 18–24
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 16 15–17 14–17 14–18 13–18
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 9 8–11 8–11 8–11 7–11
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 7 6–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Darbo Partija 2 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 4 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 4% 99.7%  
19 17% 96%  
20 42% 79% Median
21 30% 37%  
22 5% 7%  
23 1.0% 2%  
24 0.5% 0.5%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.7% 100%  
14 7% 99.3%  
15 33% 92%  
16 32% 59% Median
17 23% 27%  
18 4% 5%  
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.7% 100%  
8 10% 99.3%  
9 46% 89% Median
10 29% 43%  
11 13% 14%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 5% 99.9%  
8 30% 95% Last Result
9 50% 64% Median
10 13% 14%  
11 0.8% 0.9%  
12 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 6% 100%  
6 35% 94%  
7 51% 59% Median
8 7% 7%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8% Last Result
3 0% 99.8%  
4 12% 99.8%  
5 69% 87% Median
6 17% 18%  
7 1.0% 1.0%  
8 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 0% 90%  
2 0% 90%  
3 0.1% 90%  
4 55% 90% Median
5 31% 35%  
6 4% 4%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 1.1% 4%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 25 0% 24–27 23–28 23–28 22–29

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.7% 100%  
23 5% 99.2%  
24 23% 94%  
25 35% 71% Median
26 17% 36%  
27 10% 19%  
28 7% 8%  
29 1.0% 1.1%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations