Opinion Poll by Vilmorus for Lietuvos rytas, 4–12 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 24.0% 22.3–25.8% 21.9–26.2% 21.5–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.9–24.4%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 11.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.5–12.7% 9.2–13.0% 8.7–13.7%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.6%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 9.0% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 7.0–11.6%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.1% 6.7–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 18 17–19 16–19 16–20 15–21
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 15 14–16 14–17 14–17 13–18
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 8 7–9 7–9 7–10 6–10
Darbo Partija 2 7 7–8 6–8 6–9 6–9
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 7 6–7 6–8 5–8 5–9
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 4 4–5 4–5 0–6 0–6
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 4 4–5 4–6 0–6 0–6
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 0 0 0 0–4 0–4

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.4% 99.9%  
16 7% 98.6%  
17 27% 92%  
18 47% 65% Median
19 15% 18%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.6% 0.7%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 11% 98%  
15 43% 86% Median
16 33% 43%  
17 7% 10%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.9% 100%  
7 17% 99.1%  
8 54% 82% Last Result, Median
9 25% 28%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 8% 99.9%  
7 50% 92% Median
8 38% 42%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 3% 100%  
6 43% 97%  
7 46% 55% Median
8 7% 8%  
9 0.9% 0.9%  
10 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.9% 100%  
5 26% 99.1%  
6 57% 73% Median
7 15% 16%  
8 1.0% 1.0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0.2% 96%  
4 49% 95% Median
5 44% 47%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0.1% 95%  
4 46% 95% Median
5 43% 49%  
6 6% 6%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0.1% 4%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 21 0% 20–23 20–23 19–24 18–25

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.7% 100%  
19 4% 99.3%  
20 14% 95%  
21 44% 81% Median
22 25% 37%  
23 9% 12%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.5% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations