Opinion Poll by Vilmorus for Lietuvos rytas, 8–17 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 24.0% 22.3–25.8% 21.9–26.2% 21.5–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 11.0% 9.9–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.3–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.5–11.6% 8.3–11.9% 7.8–12.6%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.8% 6.1–10.4%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.8% 6.1–10.4%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.9–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 20 19–22 18–22 18–23 17–24
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 19 17–20 17–20 16–21 16–21
Darbo Partija 2 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 8 7–9 7–9 6–10 6–10
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 6 6–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 6 6–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 0 0 0 0 0

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.2% 99.9%  
18 7% 98.7%  
19 24% 91%  
20 37% 67% Median
21 19% 30%  
22 8% 11%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.7% 0.8%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 3% 99.7%  
17 23% 97%  
18 21% 74%  
19 28% 52% Median
20 20% 25%  
21 4% 4%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.3% 100%  
7 6% 99.7%  
8 40% 94%  
9 36% 54% Median
10 16% 17%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0% 0%  

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 3% 100%  
7 32% 97%  
8 47% 65% Last Result, Median
9 15% 18%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 7% 99.7%  
6 46% 93% Median
7 42% 46%  
8 5% 5%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 8% 99.9%  
6 50% 92% Median
7 39% 42%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 46%  
2 0% 46%  
3 0% 46%  
4 32% 46%  
5 14% 14%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0% 4%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 25 0% 23–27 23–27 22–28 22–29

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.4% 100%  
22 3% 99.5%  
23 11% 96%  
24 24% 85%  
25 28% 61% Median
26 18% 34%  
27 12% 15%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.9% 0.9%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations