Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for ELTA, 16–31 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 19.0% 17.5–20.6% 17.0–21.1% 16.7–21.5% 16.0–22.3%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.1–19.0% 14.8–19.4% 14.1–20.2%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 10.0% 8.9–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 9.0% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.7% 7.4–11.0% 6.9–11.6%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 7.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 7.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.6% 4.3–8.1%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.6% 4.3–8.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 14 13–15 13–16 13–16 12–17
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 13 12–14 11–14 11–15 10–15
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 10 9–11 9–11 8–11 8–12
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 8 7–8 7–9 6–9 6–10
Darbo Partija 2 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 5 5–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 5 4–5 4–6 0–6 0–6
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 4 4–5 0–5 0–6 0–6

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 2% 99.9%  
13 20% 98%  
14 39% 78% Median
15 34% 39%  
16 4% 5%  
17 0.9% 1.1%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.5% 100%  
11 8% 99.5%  
12 39% 92%  
13 38% 52% Median
14 11% 14%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 4% 99.9% Last Result
9 30% 95%  
10 46% 66% Median
11 18% 20%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 4% 99.9%  
7 45% 96%  
8 44% 51% Median
9 6% 7%  
10 0.6% 0.7%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 2% 100%  
6 27% 98%  
7 57% 71% Median
8 14% 15%  
9 1.1% 1.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 8% 99.8%  
5 54% 91% Median
6 34% 37%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 12% 99.7%  
5 64% 88% Median
6 21% 24%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 40% 96%  
5 51% 56% Median
6 5% 5%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100% Last Result
1 0% 91%  
2 0% 91%  
3 0% 91%  
4 51% 91% Median
5 36% 40%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 20 0% 19–21 19–22 19–23 18–23

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 2% 99.7%  
19 18% 98%  
20 55% 79%  
21 15% 25% Median
22 5% 10%  
23 4% 4%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations