Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for ELTA, 21–31 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 22.0% 20.4–23.8% 20.0–24.3% 19.6–24.7% 18.8–25.6%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 18.9–23.2% 18.5–23.6% 17.8–24.4%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 10.0% 8.9–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 8.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 7.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 7.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 19 17–21 17–22 17–22 16–23
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 18 16–20 16–20 15–21 15–22
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 9 8–10 7–10 7–11 7–11
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–8
Darbo Partija 2 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–8
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 0 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.4% 100%  
16 2% 99.6%  
17 11% 98%  
18 18% 86%  
19 27% 68% Median
20 12% 41%  
21 21% 29%  
22 6% 8%  
23 1.2% 1.4%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 3% 99.8%  
16 11% 97%  
17 21% 86%  
18 24% 65% Median
19 20% 41%  
20 17% 21%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.7% 0.9%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 9% 99.6%  
8 39% 91% Last Result
9 37% 52% Median
10 12% 15%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 23% 98%  
7 46% 75% Median
8 25% 29%  
9 4% 5%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0.6% 99.7%  
5 18% 99.1%  
6 49% 81% Median
7 30% 32%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6% Last Result
3 0% 99.6%  
4 0.8% 99.6%  
5 26% 98.8%  
6 44% 73% Median
7 25% 29%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100%  
1 0% 53%  
2 0% 53%  
3 0% 53%  
4 14% 53% Median
5 37% 39%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 62% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 38%  
2 0% 38%  
3 0% 38%  
4 10% 38%  
5 25% 28%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 4% 7%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 21 0% 18–24 17–24 17–25 16–25

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 1.3% 99.7%  
17 8% 98%  
18 11% 90%  
19 10% 79%  
20 18% 69%  
21 11% 50%  
22 14% 39% Median
23 12% 25%  
24 9% 13%  
25 4% 4%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations