Opinion Poll by Spinter tyrimai for Delfi, 19–26 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.4% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 24.0% 22.4–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.5–26.8% 20.7–27.6%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 20 18–21 18–22 18–23 17–23
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 18 17–20 17–20 16–21 16–22
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 8 7–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 6 5–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 5 5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 0–6
Darbo Partija 2 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 0–6
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 4 4–5 4–6 0–6 0–6
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.2% 99.9%  
18 9% 98.7%  
19 23% 89%  
20 33% 66% Median
21 23% 33%  
22 7% 10%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.4% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 3% 99.8%  
17 18% 96%  
18 32% 78% Median
19 31% 46%  
20 11% 15%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.8% 0.9%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 8% 99.9%  
7 35% 92%  
8 42% 57% Last Result, Median
9 13% 15%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 7% 99.8%  
5 43% 93%  
6 45% 50% Median
7 5% 5%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 0% 94%  
4 2% 94%  
5 90% 91% Median
6 0.9% 1.1%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 21% 98%  
5 74% 77% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98% Last Result
3 0% 98%  
4 46% 98%  
5 50% 52% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 58% 96% Median
5 32% 39%  
6 7% 7%  
7 0% 0%  

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 7% 7%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 24 0% 22–25 22–26 21–27 21–28

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 4% 99.6%  
22 11% 96%  
23 23% 85%  
24 27% 61% Median
25 24% 34%  
26 7% 10%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.6% 0.8%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations