Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for ELTA, 24 September–7 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 25.0% 23.3–26.8% 22.8–27.4% 22.4–27.8% 21.7–28.7%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.2–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 8.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 7.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.6% 4.3–8.1%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.6% 4.3–8.1%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 21 19–23 19–23 18–24 17–24
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 15 14–16 13–17 13–17 12–18
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 10 9–11 9–11 8–12 8–13
Darbo Partija 2 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 5 4–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 5 4–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 0 0 0 0–4 0–5

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.5% 99.9%  
18 4% 99.4%  
19 14% 96%  
20 28% 82%  
21 26% 54% Median
22 17% 29%  
23 8% 12%  
24 3% 4%  
25 0.3% 0.4%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 1.3% 100%  
13 7% 98.7%  
14 25% 91%  
15 35% 66% Median
16 22% 31%  
17 8% 9%  
18 1.1% 1.3%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 4% 99.8% Last Result
9 26% 96%  
10 36% 70% Median
11 29% 34%  
12 4% 5%  
13 0.5% 0.6%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 4% 100%  
6 39% 96%  
7 41% 57% Median
8 15% 16%  
9 1.1% 1.2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 0% 99.6%  
4 2% 99.6%  
5 34% 98%  
6 42% 64% Median
7 21% 22%  
8 1.2% 1.2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 0% 91%  
2 0% 91%  
3 0% 91%  
4 9% 91%  
5 65% 81% Median
6 14% 16%  
7 1.3% 1.3%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100% Last Result
1 0% 91%  
2 0% 91%  
3 0% 91%  
4 13% 91%  
5 59% 78% Median
6 16% 18%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100% Last Result
1 0% 52%  
2 0% 52%  
3 0% 52%  
4 33% 52% Median
5 18% 18%  
6 0.7% 0.8%  
7 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0% 4%  
4 3% 4%  
5 0.9% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 20 0% 17–22 15–22 15–23 14–23

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 3% 98%  
16 3% 95%  
17 3% 92%  
18 8% 89%  
19 20% 81%  
20 32% 61% Median
21 17% 29%  
22 9% 12%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.4% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations