Opinion Poll by Spinter tyrimai for Delfi, 16–30 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 22.6% 26.0% 24.2–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.8% 22.5–29.7%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 22.4% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 7.8% 12.0% 10.8–13.5% 10.5–13.9% 10.2–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 15.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.4–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 5.7% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Darbo Partija 4.9% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Liberalų Sąjūdis 9.4% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai 31 21 20–24 19–24 19–25 18–26
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga 54 17 16–20 15–20 15–20 14–22
Partija tvarka ir teisingumas 8 10 8–11 8–12 8–12 8–13
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 17 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija 8 5 4–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Darbo Partija 2 5 4–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Liberalų Sąjūdis 14 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija 0 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 2% 99.8%  
19 5% 98%  
20 15% 92%  
21 28% 77% Median
22 20% 49%  
23 15% 29%  
24 10% 14%  
25 2% 4%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 1.1% 100%  
15 5% 98.8%  
16 14% 93%  
17 42% 79% Median
18 20% 37%  
19 7% 17%  
20 9% 10%  
21 1.0% 1.5%  
22 0.2% 0.5%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Partija tvarka ir teisingumas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija tvarka ir teisingumas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 13% 99.8% Last Result
9 15% 87%  
10 41% 72% Median
11 23% 31%  
12 7% 8%  
13 0.9% 1.1%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 6% 99.9%  
6 43% 94%  
7 38% 52% Median
8 13% 14%  
9 0.9% 0.9%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 0% 93%  
4 18% 93%  
5 54% 75% Median
6 19% 21%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 0% 92%  
2 0% 92% Last Result
3 0% 92%  
4 11% 92%  
5 61% 81% Median
6 19% 20%  
7 1.5% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 43% 100%  
1 0% 57%  
2 0% 57%  
3 0% 57%  
4 35% 57% Median
5 20% 22%  
6 1.5% 1.5%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 50%  
2 0% 50%  
3 0% 50%  
4 34% 50%  
5 14% 16%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centro partija „Gerovės Lietuva“ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 5% 6%  
5 0.9% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija 71 24 0% 22–27 22–27 21–28 20–29

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga – Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.8% 99.9%  
21 4% 99.1%  
22 10% 96%  
23 32% 86%  
24 23% 53% Median
25 12% 30%  
26 7% 18%  
27 7% 11%  
28 3% 4%  
29 0.6% 1.0%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations